NYT: "Market for Corporate Jets Goes Into Free Fall"

[B19 Flyer]

Another conspiracy debunked.

I normally don't like to acknowledge that the village troll exists, which would only serve to encourage him. But I have noticed that he thrives on the attention that all of you give him. When he doesn't get it, he revives posts that were almost dead in hopes to get attention. Look at all the Flight Options posts that he revived on Christmas Eve when he was lonely and had now one to talk to. One thread was dead for 11 days. But he posted on all 4 of them in hopes to re-stir up hot conversation to entertain him on a lonely holiday. As it has been said many times, please just ignore him and maybe he will play elsewhere.

The union mongers seem to be upset when I don't show up and respond every day, and lord forbid should I skip a post here and there. On the morning of Christmas eve I had been gone for over a week and responded to as many as I could before I flew out for a few days. I didn't dredge up old stuff, all I did was respond to as many posts as I could in 20 minutes.

Nice try here for the conspiracy theory, but like I've always said.... there ain't no conspiracy.

 

[brokeflyer]

The union mongers seem to be upset when I don't show up and respond every day, and lord forbid should I skip a post here and there. On the morning of Christmas eve I had been gone for over a week and responded to as many as I could before I flew out for a few days. I didn't dredge up old stuff, all I did was respond to as many posts as I could in 20 minutes.

Nice try here for the conspiracy theory, but like I've always said.... there ain't no conspiracy.

once again, can you answer this?

If there was no union, would the company pay me what I was worth? Would they pay me 6 figures?

 

[Publishers]

I do not want to become B19 here nor take his position but there are a couple of points to be made. One is the comment regarding when you are small, you need the bigger union. Anyone who ever negotiated a union contract knows one basic fact. If you are small potatoes in the industry, you are also small potatoes to a big union. Their economics work just like a company.
Secondly, there is little doubt that the unions have screwed up the airline business beyond all help. Pointing to Netjets as a fractional or Southwest as an airline and saying --see this can work -- just misses the boat. In fact, they both now have in house unions and that is the only prayer for surviving with them.
The problem is not the union--the B19. The problem is there is no stability in the environment that they operate in, they create legacy obligations that someone who competes does not have, and they are slow to respond.

 

[Semore Butts]

B-19

Youre Fired!

 

[BeeDubya]

Remember this post, because when it hits the fan and it starts to slip, I'll want you apoligizing [sic] to me and admitting I was right in predicting the turmoil that is about to make your industry leading contract a worthless piece of paper.

B19,

What exactly do you think I should apologize for? I made no declarative statements. I did not accuse you of anything. I asked if you would alter your remarks based on what actually occurs. I made no predictions, either. Neither did I claim that your predictions are right or wrong.

 

[Hogprint]

Bridgeway Bob, Bob19 or shall I call you Family Guy? posted :

That CBA is based on profit sharing and not greed like the NJA contract is.

Are you really this ignorant or just stupid? The NJA contract wasn't negotiated on greed as you opined. It was Interest Based Bargaining. The company willingly gave us a RAISE after the the '05 contract. I guess you have a hard time sorting facts from your chaff...

 

[B19 Flyer]

greed based contract

Bridgeway Bob, Bob19 or shall I call you Family Guy? posted :



Are you really this ignorant or just stupid? The NJA contract wasn't negotiated on greed as you opined. It was Interest Based Bargaining. The company willingly gave us a RAISE after the the '05 contract. I guess you have a hard time sorting facts from your chaff...

Does the contract ebb and flow with the success of the company as the SWA contract does?


If it doesn't, then it's a greed based contract that could only increase.


If the company willingly gave a raise after the '05 contract, will the union willingly give some of that $$ back if the company takes a loss this year?


If not, it's a greed based contract.

 

[B19 Flyer]

I do not want to become B19 here nor take his position but there are a couple of points to be made. One is the comment regarding when you are small, you need the bigger union. Anyone who ever negotiated a union contract knows one basic fact. If you are small potatoes in the industry, you are also small potatoes to a big union. Their economics work just like a company.
Secondly, there is little doubt that the unions have screwed up the airline business beyond all help. Pointing to Netjets as a fractional or Southwest as an airline and saying --see this can work -- just misses the boat. In fact, they both now have in house unions and that is the only prayer for surviving with them.
The problem is not the union--the B19. The problem is there is no stability in the environment that they operate in, they create legacy obligations that someone who competes does not have, and they are slow to respond.

Agreed and well stated. Right now I'm aware that the SWA MEC is leaning toward a CBA along the lines of the rest of the industry which will change the face of the entire company. At SWA, this extends beyond the pilot group into all the other working areas also.

As I've stated before the "industry leading contract" at NJ has yet to be proven as successful because it's too early in the game. This year will test that contract. If it is too expensive, furloughs will happen. If it's too greedy, furloughs will happen AND NJ will ask for givebacks, then.. like with the legacy carriers, the turmoil will be miserable in the company for everybody.

 

[Semore Butts]

B-19

You're Fired!

 

[Publishers]

One significant difference between this and the airlines is Netjets can effectively change its prices at will as compared to airlines which beat each other to death.
This is also where the symbiotic nature of NJA comes into play because they get a piece of the pie at a lot of stops along the way as compared to someone else like Avantair or Flops.
Secondly, it almost never the direct cost that kills as compared to work rules and non productivity clauses like the auto job bank.
I just completed the quick study at MIA for December and fractionals dropped from 458 flights in 2007 to 370 in 2008..75% were Netjets.
At this point, it will be pretty much impossible for anyone to ever really compete with them and they are alone as the industry to themselves.

 

[gunfyter]

What you don't know is what percentage are occupied or reposition flights.

The percentage is different than last year. Not many repo flights as compared to last year. So the drop in overall traffic may not exactly translate into the actual drop in business.

 

[Frac Cap]

Also, using a point of entry like MIA could affect the results. Net Jets may favor MIA as an entry point, just like Flops favors PBI.

 

[Publishers]

I understand that it is not scietific but it is processed in the same manner. Add to that, I know Art Basel and some other events are not attracting the traffic levels from prior years. I also get the fuel sale numbers for the airports here so see declines. If anything, using MIA is probably for the plus as other destinations are hurt more which rely on pure corporate activity. The stats show that as a percentage of the total, not much has changed. It is in the total overall number that there is the decline. With fractional flying representing almost 40% of Sigature traffic, it is certainly something that they watch constantly.
Lastly, another thing I noticed is the disappearance of many other charter companies between 2007 and 2008 traffic. Some of these could have been flying Netjets or other frac back up.
Lastly, one additional aspect to be seen is the drop in the residual value of all shares as business jet values drop off the planet. People who want out are going to be in a hurt.

 

[Sparse]

Actually, Santulli is getting heartburn, but the future heart attack is going to come when NJASAP realizes that the "industry leading contract" isn't going to stand up by the end of next year.

This is an awful lot like 2001 and 2002 when United, Delta and AA all had "industry leading contracts" and they all collapsed back to reality (and actually much worse)

All of you have said this couldn't happen, and for months and months I said it could. You guys asked for too much, got too much and now you and the rest of the company are going to pay the price...

You are partially correct. UAL led the way, Delta achived UAL +, and AA was working on theirs when 9-11 interupted things. They never got an industry leading contract and they never entered bankruptcy.

 

[Sparse]

B19 flyer, I see what you're saying. The thing is, we have to make enough to be respected as profesionals. If things went back to where they were (pre contract 2005), then we loose respect and credibilty as professionals and pilots. Back in 2005, I would airlne to a place, catch a ride on a CLS car someplace else. Get to talking with the limo driver, 4 out 5 times, his salary was twice my salary (as an F/O)........my college debt is 60,000, he paid nothing to become a driver.....do you see my point????

You have to be kidding. With this logic, maybe should be a limo driver. Just remember, you are not worth what you are worth, you are worth what you negotiate.