NYT: "Market for Corporate Jets Goes Into Free Fall"

[gunfyter]

What you don't know is what percentage are occupied or reposition flights.

The percentage is different than last year. Not many repo flights as compared to last year. So the drop in overall traffic may not exactly translate into the actual drop in business.

 

[Frac Cap]

Also, using a point of entry like MIA could affect the results. Net Jets may favor MIA as an entry point, just like Flops favors PBI.

 

[Publishers]

I understand that it is not scietific but it is processed in the same manner. Add to that, I know Art Basel and some other events are not attracting the traffic levels from prior years. I also get the fuel sale numbers for the airports here so see declines. If anything, using MIA is probably for the plus as other destinations are hurt more which rely on pure corporate activity. The stats show that as a percentage of the total, not much has changed. It is in the total overall number that there is the decline. With fractional flying representing almost 40% of Sigature traffic, it is certainly something that they watch constantly.
Lastly, another thing I noticed is the disappearance of many other charter companies between 2007 and 2008 traffic. Some of these could have been flying Netjets or other frac back up.
Lastly, one additional aspect to be seen is the drop in the residual value of all shares as business jet values drop off the planet. People who want out are going to be in a hurt.

 

[Sparse]

Actually, Santulli is getting heartburn, but the future heart attack is going to come when NJASAP realizes that the "industry leading contract" isn't going to stand up by the end of next year.

This is an awful lot like 2001 and 2002 when United, Delta and AA all had "industry leading contracts" and they all collapsed back to reality (and actually much worse)

All of you have said this couldn't happen, and for months and months I said it could. You guys asked for too much, got too much and now you and the rest of the company are going to pay the price...

You are partially correct. UAL led the way, Delta achived UAL +, and AA was working on theirs when 9-11 interupted things. They never got an industry leading contract and they never entered bankruptcy.

 

[Sparse]

B19 flyer, I see what you're saying. The thing is, we have to make enough to be respected as profesionals. If things went back to where they were (pre contract 2005), then we loose respect and credibilty as professionals and pilots. Back in 2005, I would airlne to a place, catch a ride on a CLS car someplace else. Get to talking with the limo driver, 4 out 5 times, his salary was twice my salary (as an F/O)........my college debt is 60,000, he paid nothing to become a driver.....do you see my point????

You have to be kidding. With this logic, maybe should be a limo driver. Just remember, you are not worth what you are worth, you are worth what you negotiate.

 

[B19 Flyer]

You are partially correct. UAL led the way, Delta achived UAL +, and AA was working on theirs when 9-11 interupted things. They never got an industry leading contract and they never entered bankruptcy.

AA came within hours of bankruptcy, but the point I was trying to make is that these large contracts and slow reaction by unions do nothing but hurt the company. With the profit sharing based contract like what SWA did, the company stayed stable and was able to work through the tough times. NJ took a "greed" contract and that spells trouble. When it all hits the fan, these boards will be "smokin" with everybody that will say the company was mismanaged by RTS. The are already talking about NJ having "fat" in other places that can be cut first because they know what is coming.

All the CEOs at these three legacy carriers were hailed as heroes until the economy tanked and nobody cared what they made while the union members were making a lot and had to cough some of it up to save the company. Then, the company was mismanaged. It was amazing how much they were like when the contracts were signed and hated when they asked for some of it back.

Yep, NJ is going down the same road. All the compliments RTS has had on this board should be ending soon and everybody will be asking for his head on a platter because he couldn't find a way to make the company profitable with a CBA that was so expensive it bring the company down in these economic times.

 

[brokeflyer]

whatever you need to tell yourself

 

[B19 Flyer]

whatever you need to tell yourself

Fact, not fiction. NJ is about to experience the exact same thing and all the compliments that RTS has gotten on this board will fall to the wayside when he looks at NJASAP and asks for some of it back.

 

[brokeflyer]

yup, that would suck.

 

[BeeDubya]

Fact, not fiction.

Technically, it's a prediction... your predictions may be correct, but predictions are not facts until they occur.