NWA rumors?

[P3tarbaby]

Does anyone have any updated info on NWA besides the 302 furloughs in Jan? I heard today from an NWA pilot who said a union rep jumpseater said furloughs recalled by June with hiring to resume in summer. Has anyone heard anything similar?

 

[charley varrick]

The only OFFICIAL word from NWA regarding a possible recall scenario was maybe, perhaps, please, God, no more attacks, did I mention that this wasn't for certain? fourth quarter 2002, with the notices going out in the tail end of the third quarter. Of course, there are persistant "I had my exit interview and the chief pilot said. . ." stories that are a variance of the rumor you heard. Personally, I think these are Terrorism's ribald attempt to concoct an urban legend capable of making it even harder for a struggling furloughee to make long-term decisions.

 

[P3tarbaby]

...make a long term decision...been on my mind every single day. I'm due to get out of the Nav the end of Jan. Have a reserve slot but no other prospects from the majors except NWA with the letter that I am no longer "an active pilot candidate" which I received like many others after 9/11 while awaiting a class date. Do I get out and join the ranks of the fuloughees or pull my letter and do 2 more years...boy I wish I had a crystal ball.

 

[ifly4food]

P3...
Having never been in the military, I can't really say what you should do, but if it were me, I'd sign on for 2 more years of job security and ride this one out. In 2 years things should be improving and you would be very competetive having just left the mil and having flown actively. If you get stuck out of a job here in the civ world, you may not fly for a long time, which will reduce your competetiveness.
Just my $0.02

 

[UALX727]

I agree, looking at the current situation at the majors, if I we're in your shoes I would stay in 2 more years. If you said 4 years, then I would be hesitant. But 2 years will fly by pretty quick.

I've been with United 1 1/2 years. I just made it past the first round of cuts and am very close to the bottom. UAL is talking about laying off 403 more in March. I tend to think it will happen, unless the union can strike some sort of deal with them. If they lay off that many, we will have 994 guys out on furlough.

Now my logic, at least with the UAL situation, is this. From what I have heard, it isn't cost effective to lay off a pilot for less than 1 year. Not sure where this comes from, but that's what I've heard. Assuming UAL does lay off 403 in March, then they wait 1 year(best case scenario) to bring them back. It would then be March 2003 when the first UAL guy is recalled.

Being that UAL has retired 2 fleets(727, 737-200) they cannot get as many people through TK(training center) as they used to be able to do. There will be less sims to train on. In the "old days" UAL trained around 100/month. When they recall I would think it would be closer to 80/month.

So from now until March 2003(before they recall-theoretically) is 15 months. Then the time it will take to get through recalling 994 pilots at 80/month will be another 12 months. Now we are looking at 27 months before all of the furloughees are recalled.

Last I checked, United has a pool of around 250 guys waiting for class. Not sure of their status. Let's assume 150 of these guys take a class. That's another 2 months draining the pool.

So, and there are a lot of assumptions here, in this scenario it will be 15 months (until recall begins)+12 months (to get the furloughees trained again) + 2 months (to drain pool). All totalled up this equals roughly 2 1/2 years before any outsider gets a shot getting hired at United. And my scenario only assumes that 403 more will be furloughed. Right now, the company is showing a surplus of 1562 pilots.

Definitely not looking good right now at United. I am planning to be laid off for at least 2 years. Hopefully that won't happen but I must be a realist.

If you stayed in the Navy, there are some definite advantages. I guarantee, you'll make a lot more than me during the next 2 years if I get furloughed. The job market is bad right now, even outside of aviation. You'll probably find me delivering you a pizza one night!!!

You will also keep building flight-time and stay current, which can only be to your benefit when you get out in the airlines eyes. Now some of the regionals are hiring, but the odds are that you will spend most of the 2 years as a copilot in an RJ making 25 grand or so. If you stayed in the Navy, you would spend those 2 years making more money and probably being the pilot in command(not sure of your status). Command time is golden to the airlines over S.I.C. time.

Also, you are not losing any seniority at the airline by staying in the Navy. Nobody is hiring now. Let's say you stay in the Navy and when you get out, the timing is good and the airlines start to hire again. You will end up right behind some guy that was hired 2-3 years before you on the seniority list, so essentially you lose nothing.

Anyway, good luck with your decision. Maybe some other guys from other airlines could work up a scenario for their own company. This is just guesstimate kind of stuff, but gets you thinking.

 

[N1atMax]

Sign up for two more years!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I have lots of friends who are out on the streets with no income. One friend just got told it will be two years minimum before he gets his call back. Take the two years ang go treat yourself to a new car or boat and consider yourself lucky to have a good job.

 

[ck130]

P3tarbaby,

I was in your shoes 3 months ago trying to decide wheter to pull my letter or jump ship and go into the reserves. I also got the "don't call us we'll call you" letter from NWA. In the end I decided against leaving in order to wait it out on active duty until the next wave of hiring starts up. No one has a crystal ball but even if hiring starts back up again in full force this summer (which I really doubt) you would only be about 14-15 months behind the begining of the wave which is time you will need anyway to get interviews and land a job. And with the NWA situation in particular no one,including HR, knows what our standing is. Many feel that we would have to do the entire interview all over again just like everyone else, which again means many more months before you would be in a class. SO to make a long answer even longer, take door number 1 and have fun flying for the next 2 years without the stress of wondering where the next meal is coming from. Believe it or not you're in a good position.


Fly Safe

ck130

p.s. your engines are mounted upside down

 

[rapidD]

P3

I'm a major carrier furloughee and a USAF retiree. If I could get back in for two years, I'd do it in a heartbeat. From what I'm hearing with my ear to the ground, I'd bet that this will last at least two years. Stay in, fly your butt off, and work on your apps. This will all come around but its going to take some time with all the uncertainty and guys trying to light their shoes.

rapidD

 

[MsFan]

I'm a NWA furloughee and AF Reservist as well. I've always said I'd rather sell vacuum cleaners at Sears than give the Active Duty another two years to squeeze some more blood out of me. Here's my two cents. If you can make enough money with your Reserve unit to pay the bills for a while, do it. I'd talk to your Reserve unit and find out exactly how much money you can expect to earn. If you can't get by on that, go back to the AD. Most Reserve/Guard units I've heard about are very good about finding work for guys to do to make some money. Also, with the current world situation, there is more than enough flying to be done. I'd rather have my freedom to take a job if one comes calling than to wait two years and start over. I think NWA will be hiring before you would get off AD, and you guys with the "letter" probably will be the first ones in line.

It's a tough call and you wouldn't be wrong to go back to the Active Duty. But if you can get by eating TV dinners for a year or so, stick it out with your Reserve unit. Good luck.

 

[Cosmo007]

I agree with the previous posters on the general decision making. With no definitive job offer I probably would have pulled my letter (I left active duty Nov 00), though we both know that it probably would have led to non-flying boat orders. Personally, I am doing the Reserve flying job to bridge from active duty to Southwest start date (?). If you need to make a living at it, look into whether you can get additional drills, reserve management periods, and additional active duty for the unit that picked you up (beyond the one weekend/mo. and 2 weeks AD). All of this additional time and pay adds up quickly - and there seems to be alot more money to be spent from the Reserve pot than what it seemed on AD. The military does have a Cobra-type program to extend Tricare benefits up to 18 months after separation, though it is costly (you probably heard about it in TAP class). I know that this is not your exact situation, but hopefully more info is better than less. Good luck.

 

[Schwanker]

P3
To answer your original question, Charley is absolutely correct about the companies OFFICIAL word (bringing back furloughs in Q4). On the other hand is the whisper around NWA. The company originally said it would furlough 850. The whisper even a few months ago is that the actual furlough would be between 400 and 500. The company just cut back projected furlough number to 550. Common perception still is that it will not exceed 500. There is also rumors floating around (originating from places "in the know") that all furloughees will be back in summer with possible new hire classes to follow. Will this happen? I have no idea. I am under the impression, however, that the OFFICIAL word is generally very conservative and worst case. I would venture to GUESS the "whisper" being heard by many will more than likely play out to be more accurate. Just my opinion and probably just enough to confuse anyone.

On the Reserve issue, Reserves are very good about taking care of their own. It will be difficult for you to make ends meet unless you live where your Reserve unit is. If you intend to live at your Reserve location, I would heavlily consider separating and going Reserve. You will be able to make ends meet (unless you spend like my wife) and it will be the quickest most flexible route to the majors when the opportunity again presents itself. Good Luck.

 

[P3tarbaby]

I spoke with Becky at NWA HR this morning to see if she had any new info and to clarify what exactly "the letter" means. As far as call backs and furlough numbers, they are still projecting 4th quarter and they are evaluating furlough numbers on an ongoing basis, so nothing is set in stone.

They have no projection as to when they will start to hire again, but those with the letter will be the first contacted (after furloughees, of course) but they haven't decided what the interview process will be. It maybe just a background update but there's a chance we may have to do Phase I and II over. She said the most important thing is to keep contact info up to date.

I also asked about staying in the military and how that would affect hiring status. She said that as long as you keep them up to date, they will hold position for you until you get out.

Hope this helps any other NWA poolies/furloughees. As for me, I still haven't made a decision. Thanks for all the input/advice.

 

[Rock]

That is excellent news as far as I'm concerned. I can't imagine they'd make those "with the letter" retake the phase I all over again. It's only going to cost them money, and since we fit their profile before (schizophrenic ax murderers), it's probably a safe bet we'd pass again. Obviously they'd need to update background checks and currencies. I'd just be happy to be given first consideration when they do start hiring again.
And here is something for the wildass rumor file...Apparently the Air Force is looking to fill the gap created by losing (at least temporarily) its C-141's. NWA is a perfect filler (combination cargo/passenger carrier) and talks are in progress. If something comes of that then furlough numbers will shrink and may even disappear. Did I mention the part about wildass rumor? Has anyone heard something similar?

 

[Schwanker]

Rock,
Great Rumor. Hope their is a wildhair's truth to it. Where did you get the info that talks are in progress. Haven't heard anything to that respect. Let's hope its true.

 

[Rock]

I work with a current NWA pilot. He usually keeps his ear to the ground, and says this comes from fairly reputable sources within the company. Of course, I don't think I'll quit my day job until I hear something a little more firm.

 

[nwazoomie]

Getting out of the Mil is a question of why you want to get out. When I got out, I just wanted the nearest exit. I didn't consider flying for the airlines until I had decided to get out. I would have just as soon flip burgers as stay in the mil. So for me personally, I would get out, but I realize that is a different situation.

NWA Rumors...NWA has pulled two DC 10s from the dessert (sp?) and is attacking UAL routes. Everytime UAL pulls a flight on a shared route, NWA adds one. Great news for the redtails! The previous comes from a reliable source. The following I don't have a source for. Furloughed pilots will go back to the same seat they came from saving training cost. Hopefully this means that we can get into the business of hiring pilots quicker than spending time retraining them.

 

[Schwanker]

Heard very similar talk as of late. Also told not to be surprised if a substantial number of furloughees called back by April / May. Keep the fingers crossed.

 

[nwazoomie]

Read in the Pioneer Press (St Paul MN) that CAL is going to furlough an extra 100 pilots.