I agree, looking at the current situation at the majors, if I we're in your shoes I would stay in 2 more years. If you said 4 years, then I would be hesitant. But 2 years will fly by pretty quick.
I've been with United 1 1/2 years. I just made it past the first round of cuts and am very close to the bottom. UAL is talking about laying off 403 more in March. I tend to think it will happen, unless the union can strike some sort of deal with them. If they lay off that many, we will have 994 guys out on furlough.
Now my logic, at least with the UAL situation, is this. From what I have heard, it isn't cost effective to lay off a pilot for less than 1 year. Not sure where this comes from, but that's what I've heard. Assuming UAL does lay off 403 in March, then they wait 1 year(best case scenario) to bring them back. It would then be March 2003 when the first UAL guy is recalled.
Being that UAL has retired 2 fleets(727, 737-200) they cannot get as many people through TK(training center) as they used to be able to do. There will be less sims to train on. In the "old days" UAL trained around 100/month. When they recall I would think it would be closer to 80/month.
So from now until March 2003(before they recall-theoretically) is 15 months. Then the time it will take to get through recalling 994 pilots at 80/month will be another 12 months. Now we are looking at 27 months before all of the furloughees are recalled.
Last I checked, United has a pool of around 250 guys waiting for class. Not sure of their status. Let's assume 150 of these guys take a class. That's another 2 months draining the pool.
So, and there are a lot of assumptions here, in this scenario it will be 15 months (until recall begins)+12 months (to get the furloughees trained again) + 2 months (to drain pool). All totalled up this equals roughly 2 1/2 years before any outsider gets a shot getting hired at United. And my scenario only assumes that 403 more will be furloughed. Right now, the company is showing a surplus of 1562 pilots.
Definitely not looking good right now at United. I am planning to be laid off for at least 2 years. Hopefully that won't happen but I must be a realist.
If you stayed in the Navy, there are some definite advantages. I guarantee, you'll make a lot more than me during the next 2 years if I get furloughed. The job market is bad right now, even outside of aviation. You'll probably find me delivering you a pizza one night!!!
You will also keep building flight-time and stay current, which can only be to your benefit when you get out in the airlines eyes. Now some of the regionals are hiring, but the odds are that you will spend most of the 2 years as a copilot in an RJ making 25 grand or so. If you stayed in the Navy, you would spend those 2 years making more money and probably being the pilot in command(not sure of your status). Command time is golden to the airlines over S.I.C. time.
Also, you are not losing any seniority at the airline by staying in the Navy. Nobody is hiring now. Let's say you stay in the Navy and when you get out, the timing is good and the airlines start to hire again. You will end up right behind some guy that was hired 2-3 years before you on the seniority list, so essentially you lose nothing.
Anyway, good luck with your decision. Maybe some other guys from other airlines could work up a scenario for their own company. This is just guesstimate kind of stuff, but gets you thinking.