NJA projected upgrade time

[Ultra Grump]

They said that about the first payout, but nobody's leaving.

 

[LostComm]

Its hard to figure that out right now. It will probably be around two years.

Not a chance.

Do the math. About 62% of the seniority list is PIC. If they hire 450 this year and average 300 a year (with roughly 2225 pre CBA pilots) it will be a minimum of 4-5 years. And thats only if the hiring continues at those rates.

 

[FLYLOW22]

Not a chance.

Do the math. About 62% of the seniority list is PIC. If they hire 450 this year and average 300 a year (with roughly 2225 pre CBA pilots) it will be a minimum of 4-5 years. And thats only if the hiring continues at those rates.

If only life happened in a vaccuum such as this then analytical thinking like this would be dead on. Welcome to aviation where a company has NO ability to "tweak hiring and upgrades; they merely have an on off switch for the entire water hydrant.

 

[LostComm]

If only life happened in a vaccuum such as this then analytical thinking like this would be dead on. Welcome to aviation where a company has NO ability to "tweak hiring and upgrades; they merely have an on off switch for the entire water hydrant.

Precisely.

My example is likely a best case scenario.

They are having a hard time pushing this years 450 hiring target through the training process. And the likelihood that they will need 300 a year, per year, for the next 4 years is probably a pipe dream.

So if it's as Flylow22 says (that they have only an on off switch) then a few "switched off" years will drop the average below my theoretical scenario illistrated above.

If you are planning your life on a four year upgrade, you may be very disappointed in my opinion.

 

[h25b]

If you are planning your life on a four year upgrade, you may be very disappointed in my opinion.

"How long is the upgrade" is one of the most pointless questions that could be asked in this business. Things can and do change on a day to day basis. How many different places have we seen go from hiring to furlough seemingly from day to the next ??? One nice economic recession is all it will take for things to come to a screeching halt. Anyone that claims to have a good estimate is merely just pulling it out of their a$$. Some can pull it out with a bit more flair than others, but the result is still always someone's stinking wild arse guess....

 

[netjetwife]

Cute kids, H25b!

 

[gunfyter]

"How long is the upgrade" is one of the most pointless questions that could be asked in this business. Things can and do change on a day to day basis. How many different places have we seen go from hiring to furlough seemingly from day to the next ??? One nice economic recession is all it will take for things to come to a screeching halt. Anyone that claims to have a good estimate is merely just pulling it out of their a$$. Some can pull it out with a bit more flair than others, but the result is still always someone's stinking wild arse guess....

Yes but ... you can estimate the BEST case based on good economic conditions....

Thats why 2 yrs is BS. 4yrs IF all goes well.

 

[h25b]

Yes but ... you can estimate the BEST case based on good economic conditions....

Thats why 2 yrs is BS. 4yrs IF all goes well.

Yes but... That would be setting yourself up for a huge disappointment... From what I have heard from the couple guys I know th ere 4 years if the planets align perfectly.

Cute kids, H25b!

They look like their mother ... My son does have my thin head of hair however, although his keeps getting thicker and mine keeps getting thinner..

 

[208starcheck]

Here is some factual info so you can decide for yourself. I have been at NJA for about 16 months and there are 250 people ahead of me. I'm in the mid 1800s and there are now about 2400 pilots. I was hoping to get a capt bid by next January but the capt bids have slowed.

Everyone has a guess about upgrade times, but it's just a guess. A major world event can change est. overnight to 6 months or 10 years. If you really want the job, upgrade times are the last thing to consider. It will happen when it happens.

Good luck

 

[Guitar Guy]

It would be interesting to count up the amount of FO's currently on the list and see how many pilots might potentially need to upgrade before a new-hire might get a captain bid. That number would have some caveats, such as bypass FO's waiting in their current fleet to upgrade (say a 2000 SIC who has no interest in the U-boat) and some retirees here who aren't interested in upgrading. And of course, if there is an uptick in retirements from NJA after the next round of bonus checks, that affects the picture, too.

I think Starcheck is essentially right - upgrade will happen when it happens. Trying to put a "good estimate" on upgrade is an exercise in futility with too many variables affecting the actual outcome.