UD-
Quick question; in the case of a start up, private company that is financed through investors, what is the impact on income once an ipo takes place and the investors debt is paid back from the proceeds of the ipo? It would seem that the balance sheet and income statement would see significant improvement.
This seems to be the plan in VA's case.
Thoughts?
S
Yeah, my thoughts are VA won't see an IPO unless they turn things around or if they're not nearly indebted as I think they might be.
Let me give you an admittedly simplistic (and long) example. Let's say I invest $100,000 in a corporation. The corporation takes the $100,000 and buys a restaurant. The restaurant starts operations and over its entire existence it loses money. So the corporation borrows against the value of the $100,000 restaurant in order to continue funding operations. At the end of the year, the corporation still has a $100,000 asset (the restaurant) and a $100,000 loan against the asset. That $100,000 was needed to keep the restaurant going.
I'm the only private shareholder of this corporation, and after a year of losses, I'm like- screw this. I'm going to go to an investment house, list my corporation on a public market, and sell my one share of my corporation to unload it. You tell the investment bank to look for potential investors, and the deal will be structured such that the you'll be responsible for paying off the debt so the new owner (the public shareholder) will have their newly acquired corporation free of debt- just like your question is phrased. Ok great.
As the seller, what do I need to recoup my losses? Well, I need my share to sell for $200,000 to break even. I need $100,000 to pay off the loan and another $100,000 to get my initial $100,000 investment back. And really, I need a few percentage points above $200,000 to cover the additional costs associated with my little IPO. Bankers ain't cheap, you know.
Now you're the buyer. You see this share for sale and the restaurant building in the corporation is worth $100,000. You don't care about the debt because that's not your problem. It's the original investor's problem. You say OK, the restaurant is worth $100,000, so I'll pay $100,00.
Back to me. I get a $100,000 offer for my share, and it's a fair offer at that because that's what the restaurant is worth. But I'm going to take OVER a $100,000 bath on that price. Why? Well, if I take the offer, I have to use the $100,000 to pay off the debt. But I am still out my original $100,000 investment AND I have to pay fees to that investment bank to the tune of a few percentage points of the value of the deal and likely some fixed fees.
So why even bother with my little IPO? Even if I get the fair value for my one share which is $100,000K, I'm still out
over $100,000 after IPO costs. It's cheaper for me to just have the corporation declare bankruptcy and just be out $100,000 instead of $100,000 + investment bank fees by trying to sell it.
What if the corporation is $150,000 in debt? $200,000 in debt? Things look even worse!
OK, so.......let's say VA is the restaurant. How much debt does that restaurant......er......airline have vs. the value of its assets? I don't know for sure, but I suspect they are deeply in debt because of the high interest payments they are reporting and the latest source of their financing. So how in the world can they sell their corporation for enough money to cover their debt and get their original investment returned?
Back to my corporation. I said I needed $200,000 plus a little more to break even. How do I get someone to pay $200,000 for my share that is only "worth" $100,000? Or even better......how do i get more than $200,000 for my share? Well, one thing I didn't consider was the value of the restaurant's FUTURE profits.
We already figured out that my share is only worth $100,000. But what if my restaurant, just before the sale, started to turn a corner? Maybe just before my little corporate IPO, my restaurant started making money? What if I can convince potential buyers of my share that my corporation has had a rough past, but it's
now poised to post profits in the future?
Well, now my share is potentially worth more than $100,000, isn't it? Those future profits have some value. Depending upon the size of the profits, maybe those future profits have a value such that a buyer might be willing to pay $200,000 for the hope of future profits. Maybe $300,000. The market determines what the discounted present value of those future profits are.
And that's what I think Cush is trying to do. He's just trying to get VA to the point where it can "turn the corner" so that those future profits have some sort of value that he can try to sell to the public. But he's walking a tightrope. Obviously VA isn't making any money, so it is continually having to borrow to sustain operations. That puts the "restaurant" deeper in debt. At what point does the airline have so much debt that even if the private owners got a realistic price, it still would make more sense to just walk away? How long can you keep borrowing before even finally turning a corner still can't garner a high enough share price to make an IPO even worth it?
I guess that's the question for VA, isn't it?
Again, it's admittedly a simplistic example, but it illustrates the position that the current owners of VA are in. And if the waiters think everything is going great at the Cush Diner..........well.......