NetJets Recalls

[brokeflyer]

wow...you should be asking for raises and less days worked.

 

[BentOver]

The company is now claiming 2014 if their projections hold. I believe that is only if they are getting their way in negotiations on a new contract. I'm fairly certain they will ask for some form or forms of concessions and if/ hopefully when rebuffed by the union they will say the only way to increase wages will be if the company shrinks. They will threaten all the sic's with furlough and whip out some way to finally downgrade. What I'm not sure about is if it will be a bluff. I think that unless the economy really pushes forward, they plan on shrinking anyway. I prefer calling the bluff and taking a furlough if I must if it eventually gives me a worthwhile job to come back to. I have savings and a plan B. I just how the group will come together once again so I and the current furloughed pilots will have a reason to stay or come back.

While all possible, awful hard to push concessions when you're claiming profits.....:beer:

Of course there's always the fake profit reports just before negotiations.. But then again, the EMT has to answer to Buffett and Buffett still answers to share holders...

Given the Netjets saga from 2009-2011 (Sokol) and given ALL those pro Netjets write-ups in the CMH Dispatch and BHK annual reports, a sudden reverse in NJA profits may not be in the EMT's best interest..

There are many ways to look at it, and many ways in which it could go....

If demand is solid, pilots are busy, and the Globals and Phenoms are showing up and selling well. I don't think the furloughees will necessarily be part of negotiations in the way you are saying. (the company may ask to release us, but that's just the first sign they need us back)

If they could shrink more and wanted to shrink more they wouldn't need contract negotiations to do so. They would have done so already.... Same with furlough, they would have done so well before the 4-5 year anniversary of the first furlough...

 

[jtf]

The company continues to shrink and is now flying less year over year. The shrinkage and decrease in flying is more than the pilot attrition rate. If they continue this there is a good reason to furlough again. Hansel has told line pilots and union stewards that he doesn't plan on extending the contract. The extension is cheap. The only reason not to extend it's if they think they can get it cheaper. Demand isn't solid so unless that changes, I dont know why the company wouldn't use the threat of more furloughs as a bargaining tool. It will take the economy really picking up a lot to have the slightest hope of bringing back any furloughs in 2014.

 

[Blueridgeflyer]

There is no question that entering section 6 sooner gives the company a strategic advantage in negotiations in lieu of the lethargic economy recovery. But I don't foresee the EMT going scorched earth during the midst of increased sales activities over the course of the next few years. I think the pilot group stands to make some contractual gains by and large, albeit less than an extension into 2016 would have yielded. The caveat being that we can put the pieces of the Association back together again.

 

[BentOver]

There is no question that entering section 6 sooner gives the company a strategic advantage in negotiations in lieu of the lethargic economy recovery. But I don't foresee the EMT going scorched earth during the midst of increased sales activities over the course of the next few years. I think the pilot group stands to make some contractual gains by and large, albeit less than an extension into 2016 would have yielded. The caveat being that we can put the pieces of the Association back together again.

I agree that the tactic of accept this or more furloughs is a bit of a stretch. Didn't work before, won't work in the future with an improving economy. and a company reporting solid profits.....

As we all know, 2013-2015 (or whenever a contract would be completed) is basically an eternity in the US economy.

Also for JTF... I still count 411 a/c on the NJA certificate, not nearly the 300 or 350 that was advertised NJA was heading to.... where are you getting they are still in major shrink mode? Recurrent or something furloughees don't have access to? I've read about the lower demand, but also how the EMT expects to be net positive flight hours for the whole 2012 year. (whether they are right or not is a different story!)

They have a ton of contracts for renewal in 2012.. And a reported 90%+/- retention rate.. Even at a high retention rate that's still alot of new contracts that would need to be signed to break even... Going into the next few years I believe the contracts up for renewal will be far less due to much softer demand in 2009-2012. And that is where the "growth" will lokk better on paper.

 

[jtf]

The company is resigning a very high percentage of customers, but they are coming back with a significantly lower number of hours. Overall the unoccupied airframe numbers continues to climb (at least 70 or 80 according to management). I don't know if management is intentionally shrinking, doing a poor job of selling airplanes, or actually doing the best job possible in the current market. I just know that the companies stated predictions have been wrong in the most important ways since they began making them- we haven't broken even on aircraft sales since the the economy dumped and they have shifted back the year that we would regain peak size every year since they started predicting it. It is always 10 years from the whenever you are in recurrent to when we will be back to where we were and that is probably about the happiest picture they can paint of the future of the company.

It is true that in 2012 so far the disposals have been very minimal, but the majority of the 100+ so far disposed have been to the manufacturers in exchange for orders and we haven't made any more orders for a while. Embraer took 25 immediately after the Phenom order and Bombardier has taken ownership of 35 to 40 airframes that we know of so far since the Global order. The company hasn't ever disclosed if the deals they made would include future exchanges once we actually start taking airframes on property. There can really be no doubt that whoever eventually wins the mid and super mid sized airframe orders will be taking a significant amount of airframes off our hands in exchange also. I would feel quite uncomfortable betting against 30+ airframes vanishing within the next year once the orders are announced since the core fleet according to management is already way too big at 70+ and growing.

Another problem I see is that management is running out of efficiencies to squeeze out of vendor contracts and wherever else they can find ways to save. The efficiencies they have achieved at least may bring some profit from the operations on a continuing basis, but surely not the $200,000,000+ per year they have been claiming. With continued negative sales and nothing else left to squeeze for profits, I believe they will do their best to squeeze us if that is the last place they have left to try to continue the run of efficiency "profits". I hope I'm wrong.

 

[G4dude]

I think you're right about being overly optimistic. The company is still in shrink mode airframe wise. It would be nice if they found a glut a new owners. I'm tired of buying my own liquor and flying a desk. At least the money sucks though.

I wonder if the extra planes will go to China, and if the furloughees will be given a chance to fly there.

 

[BentOver]

I wonder if the extra planes will go to China, and if the furloughees will be given a chance to fly there.

Who knows and what are ya smoking...

 

[fly4funcrj]

Looking at the seniority list, a large amount of pilots are in the larger cabin airframes (falcon and gulf stream). A furlough, imo, would hurt those fleets and the ability to recover trips. I do a lot of recoveries and the falcon. Of course the company could retrain pilots from other fleets but that takes time. Of course I'm just a line puke so and could be out of a job in a few months. I agree that netjets showing profits and then crying poor right before negotiations looks.... Shady. If that happened, maybe a forensic audit could occur and bring to light what's really going on..

 

[jetlag7]

Looking at the seniority list, a large amount of pilots are in the larger cabin airframes (falcon and gulf stream). A furlough, imo, would hurt those fleets and the ability to recover trips. I do a lot of recoveries and the falcon. Of course the company could retrain pilots from other fleets but that takes time. Of course I'm just a line puke so and could be out of a job in a few months. I agree that netjets showing profits and then crying poor right before negotiations looks.... Shady. If that happened, maybe a forensic audit could occur and bring to light what's really going on..

I see where you're coming from, but that didn't exactly stop them the last time.

At the time, the number one recovery fleet was the X. Next in line was the XL. Guess where the majority of furloughed pilots came from????