All,
Once again the landscape has changed, and any aura of invincibility will be dissolved one way or another. The financial crisis is challenging every aspect of the global and US economy, aviation industry, and private aviation itself. Enterprise must adjust or fail. Anyone who believes the financial crisis we encountered in 4Q 2008 which will persist through 2009 is a speed bump, is naïve at best. The economy pre-2009 is not the economy many pilots will see for the remainder of their careers; hence the landscape has changed. The “monopoly money” (financial leveraging) and climbing asset values that were fueling much of the global and US economies for nearly two decades (with a few hiccups) is officially a thing of the past. Quite simply, balance sheets and asset values have been destroyed and a lot of the discretionary/disposable high level incomes/cash flows have evaporated.
It doesn’t take a genius to understand private aviation is under attack; its many operations, services, suppliers, and manufactures are being hard hit because its purchasers and users are looked at as political/populist red meat. Moreover, for those that still have the resources - extravagance and opulence are officially in bad taste. In many ways it’s unfortunate because for those who know, the private aviation industry is as American as any industry, and tens of thousands of highly sought after and skilled jobs are being destroyed. The industry has suffered a 30-40% reduction in flight demand. Only the strongest will survive this steep and prolonged downturn. Speaking directly, maintaining the status quo is assured failure for every operator, service provider, supplier, and manufacture. It will require sustained cash flows (brand loyalty), cost containment initiatives, innovative business practices, and workforce cohesion to endure what's ahead. We can only hope the end of the beginning is near - it's certainly far from the beginning of the end.
The Integration is far more than NJA/NJI/NJLA crew integration – it’s about Operational Excellence and ensuring a safe, lean, and viable business model/plan that will justify continued support and investment from any ownership. Now more than ever before business ownership across the board/industry are asking three simple questions: (1) Do we have the cash reserves to continue to invest (assuming they have the money to invest) in this (choose any business) enterprise with ANY REALISTIC CHANCE of a future ROI? (2) Does the business have the cash flows (fixed/variable) vs costs (fixed/variable) to endure this prolonged downturn, even if ownership rights down the assets and cleans up the balance sheet? (3) Will there be a market and what’s the “right size” of the business for the future market/market share? 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006?
With all due respect, if anyone believes NetJets (or any other company for that matter) has an ounce of fat to spare for too long – they are disconnected from the brutal realities. Every company is fighting to retain existing jobs (NetJets has done exceptionally well), forget about new job creation – for now. While the market is shrinking, what’s important is the gain in existing/available market share. It's more competitive (pricing and service) than ever. In essence gaining in market share as the market shrinks. This requires business adjustments and a cohesive, dedicated, and enthusiastic/optimistic workforce. Economy of scale has pros and cons; the purchasing power can be significant. But, to change course is much more than turning an aircraft carrier, it’s like turning a fleet. We have many “ships” at NetJets, but with challenges come opportunities.
Integration is about more than crew integration, it’s about Operational Excellence for the future; organizational best practices, modern change process, agility, efficiency, creating operating leverage, and professional courtesy. The sooner we modernize and streamline the easier it will be to turn the fleet. This was not necessarily the plan going into 2008 or 2009, but we are presented with this difficult and necessary opportunity exiting 2009. The sooner the comprehensive plan is developed and communicated, and embraced which is the focus for the 2009, the sooner it will generate the results everyone seeks.
An unfortunately reality, nonetheless our reality; look beyond the past and focus on the future. A lot of great people are investing themselves into identifying all the opportunities and risk. They will engage the organization (bottom up) to ensure as we evolve over the next few years it's approached from the customer/crew interface backwards.
As for 2005 bargaining, LMRP, IBB, Integration – simply fortuitous… Now it's what's done with all the progress that really counts.
Respectfully,
