Netjets attrition prediction--hey that rhymes!!

[CE750Driver]

I agree many aspects about NJA QOL are superior... Which I stated earlier.. Basing, 401k contributions, contract, food, hotels etc.... But the topic of this thread is based on the current prediciment that NJA finds itself in, how many SIC's (or even PIC's) will most likely head for other opportunities... I agree that the grass isn't necessarily greener. But I find your opinion that SIC's have not had one change to their life at NJA both very astonishing and quite short sighted. The Union most certainly doesn't know what is going on. Management isn't saying, so what you have is many mnany SIC's having to worry and put every major decision on hold until a time that some decision is made...

Obviously from the seat you sit in, along with Pervis, your worries may not be as great.


Again this isn't a "let's bash NJA. This is a "what's the guess as to how much attrition may occur.

I would bet there will be a few leave. Not any significant amount. 20 a year would be my guess.

 

[OPECJet]

I don't think there will be another furlough any time soon.

I didn't count but in the bottom 300 it looks like at least 250 are Excel SICs... Probably another 30 in the X and Sovereign. I don't know how you operate the Excel if there is a furlough.

The union seems to think there will be one.

You'd backfill the open Excel spots with the guys coming out of dead fleets. 800XPH, Beechjunk, whatever else they're parking.

Hopefully this doesn't play out and the company turns around, but if I was on the bottom of the active list I'd be looking for another job. Even if it does turn around there's no getting around being strapped to the right seat for another decade and the pay that goes with it. That in and of itself would be / might be/ will be a dealbreaker for me. If NJA recalled me tomorrow I'd go back and let them pay me to get current again. Then it's resume updating time.

 

[gunfyter]

I thought of that ... but I think it would take too long to backfill ... I would think the economy will recover and demand for pilots increase before they could pull that off.

When that happens, I think enough NJ SICs will get picked up by airlines that any need for more furlough will be mitigated....

I do believe in the YIPsters coming pilot shortage. We have been waiting for decades but this time ... with the 1500 hr requirement ... no pilot mills promising zero time to First Officer seat will be able to fill the gap. The regionals will actually have to bump up their pay to keep people and so will the Fracs.

 

[BentOver]

I don't think there will be another furlough any time soon.

I didn't count but in the bottom 300 it looks like at least 250 are Excel SICs... Probably another 30 in the X and Sovereign. I don't know how you operate the Excel if there is a furlough.

This was the same thinking that went on the first time..It turned out to be inaccurate.

 

[OPECJet]

I thought of that ... but I think it would take too long to backfill ... I would think the economy will recover and demand for pilots increase before they could pull that off.

When that happens, I think enough NJ SICs will get picked up by airlines that any need for more furlough will be mitigated....

I do believe in the YIPsters coming pilot shortage. We have been waiting for decades but this time ... with the 1500 hr requirement ... no pilot mills promising zero time to First Officer seat will be able to fill the gap. The regionals will actually have to bump up their pay to keep people and so will the Fracs.

I think EJM sell offs would pick up the slack. NJA demand at this point is independent of the economy recovering with current management at the helm. The company will not expand until the service provided meets the asking price.

Enough SICs getting picked up at airlines is a possibility to mitigate furloughs, but it's still further shrinkage of the pilot group and company.

I'm not convinced the 1500 rule will have much impact. It's not really a 1500 hour rule. It's an ATP rule, and will be manipulated around in a way that will enable low time guys to keep getting hired.

 

[pilotyip]

I do believe in the YIPsters coming pilot shortage. We have been waiting for decades but this time ... with the 1500 hr requirement ... no pilot mills promising zero time to First Officer seat will be able to fill the gap. The regionals will actually have to bump up their pay to keep people and so will the Fracs.

That is why the regionals were interviewing 200 hour pilots at their last job fair. AE hiring at 500TT 50 ME. The shortage is already hiting the regional.

 

[BentOver]

That is why the regionals were interviewing 200 hour pilots at their last job fair. AE hiring at 500TT 50 ME. The shortage is already hiting the regional.

I'm not so sure it's a shortage, but rather regional guys seeing the writing on the wall and switching to either 135/cargo to get PIC time.. Or possibly heading overseas?

There may be a shortage at the regionals, but only a self induced shortage due to their low QOL... We've got probably 12 guys at my 135 who could easily get on with a regional but make more and have a better QOL flying a small turbo-prop....They are probably 3-4000hr guys, none have any jet time, but aren't even considering a regional. And never will. Of course without any glass/jet time their options will be limited in the future..I'm a little luckier in that this is a part time thing for me until something opens up, and I've already checked the boxes with FMS/Glass/Jet PIC time etc.

 

[pilotyip]

I'm not so sure it's a shortage, but rather regional guys seeing the writing on the wall and switching to either 135/cargo to get PIC time.. Or possibly heading overseas?

There may be a shortage at the regionals, but only a self induced shortage due to their low QOL... We've got probably 12 guys at my 135 who could easily get on with a regional but make more and have a better QOL flying a small turbo-prop....They are probably 3-4000hr guys, none have any jet time, but aren't even considering a regional. And never will. Of course without any glass/jet time their options will be limited in the future..I'm a little luckier in that this is a part time thing for me until something opens up, and I've already checked the boxes with FMS/Glass/Jet PIC time etc.

boom starts at the lower end and spreads, just watch.

 

[OPECJet]

I like your thoughts on the matter, but I really think major airlines will park aircraft as retirements pick back up rather than hire in huge numbers. It's been stated for years there is too much capacity out there.

 

[Full of LUV]

I like your thoughts on the matter, but I really think major airlines will park aircraft as retirements pick back up rather than hire in huge numbers. It's been stated for years there is too much capacity out there.

They have already parked quite a bit. No more three holers left to park. If they are able to make a profit at current sizes, then reducing size isn't really required. At most majors, they are losing 5-8% of their seniority list a year by 2015. That will be a lot of capacity to park in the system.

 

[jtf]

NJA did 3 year leaves as part of the furlough prevention deal in 2009 and less than 10 people took it. You can get a one year LOA and then possibly get another and another, but it is at their discretion every year. The only descent jobs I'm seeing that I could possibly get right now are in Asia and they require huge training bonds that are for 3 years minimum. I would like to see NJASAP negotiate longer LOAs, but we don't have that at this time- only one year at a time unless there was another secret LOA I haven't heard about.

 

[OPECJet]

They have already parked quite a bit. No more three holers left to park. If they are able to make a profit at current sizes, then reducing size isn't really required. At most majors, they are losing 5-8% of their seniority list a year by 2015. That will be a lot of capacity to park in the system.

I'm thinking MD80s, and 737 Classics. We already know 50 seat RJs are dying out, and 70s may follow as fuel prices climb. Airlines will do their best to maximize their profits, and if the past is any indicator it might be attempted through shrinking (again).

 

[Mach92]

NJA did 3 year leaves as part of the furlough prevention deal in 2009 and less than 10 people took it. You can get a one year LOA and then possibly get another and another, but it is at their discretion every year. The only descent jobs I'm seeing that I could possibly get right now are in Asia and they require huge training bonds that are for 3 years minimum. I would like to see NJASAP negotiate longer LOAs, but we don't have that at this time- only one year at a time unless there was another secret LOA I haven't heard about.

You can ask for anything you want. Anything over one year NJASAP also has to agree per our CBA.

The jobs are in ASIA, seek my friend and I promise you will find.

 

[172driver]

The biggest reason NJA SIC's are not leaving in droves is that a huge percentage of them went to NJA for two reasons: 1)No turbine PIC 2)Over age 60

Unless the majors have an awakening and realize that a 5000-10,000 SIC with widely varying experience is more valuable than a 2000 hr RJ captain, there won't be much attrition from the SIC ranks, IMO.

 

[gunfyter]

They should.

I think there will be an "awakening" but it may be after the supply of regional Captains start dwindling....

Someone said GOJETS is hiring street Captains... For uke:$49K:smash:. So the supply of Captains is starting to dwindle....

But if you need the PIC time, you need the PIC time.... I wouldn't fault you for taking the $49K.