Netjets attrition prediction--hey that rhymes!!

[BentOver]

With it being fairly obvious there is going to start being some attrition there shortly due to lack of confidence in managment... What are some predictions?

1) numbers

2) SIC/PIC or both

3)where to?


I predict, and it's pretty obvious, that most if not all SIC's are actively looking or in the early stages of finding something. Possibly a second/back-up career. Hopefully some are able to get interviewed by SWA/JB, or overseas. AA is also in the process of recalling most of their guys, USAir did as well....There are roughly 500 SIC's still active....

I hardly moved up at all in 2010, but in the first six months of 2011 I've moved up 20 or so, and most of that was just over the last couple of months.. Not much, but definitely noticeable compared to past results.

Maybe some of the older guys will have seen their retirement recover somewhat and decide to take it and run rather than sit around this place?

And also as things get more "union busting" oriented they may "find" reasons to fire people...:smash:

 

[Jack Campbell]

Only 16 have left this year. Im not expecting a lot to leave and then only sic's. The pic's cant afford the first few years' pay cut at the majors.

 

[gunfyter]

I am good for another 12 years....

 

[jtf]

I agree that most of the SICs are at least getting a backup plan established, if not actively searching for something new. There are lots of SICs that really like the flying here and there are lots that are kind of trapped- don't meet the mins anywhere else that is a descent job so they will stay until they can't or retire. If lots of good jobs really do open up, I wouldn't be surprised to see over half of the current SICs go and probably even 50 to 100 PICs that are low on the list. I don't think there will really be a mass exodus unless the next contract blows or the company is truly in a death spiral. It is just too good a job to start over from for most of the PICs. I doubt more than 10 percent of the furloughed will ever come back.

I've got a solid non-aviation Plan B if I get furloughed in the near term (before there are many good jobs available) and I'm keeping my eyes open as to what is available for my experience level in the US and around the world. Near term I'm pretty screwed if I want a descent pilot job, but I've got my fingers crossed that retirements in the US and expansion overseas will open a lot more doors in the next couple of years and depending on what's behind those doors, I may leave voluntarily.

 

[Pervis]

I've been waiting for the industry wide "hiring boom" since 1979. Hasn't happened yet. Yea, 65 is right around the corner, but there will be no more retirements than occured at 60-it's just another number.

Granted, the pilot force in general is older due to the history of the industry, but I wouldn't hold my breath regarding greener pastures. If junior at any company in this economic environment, preparing for the worst scenario is only prudent. Keep in mind Republic is about to furlough, and Delta announced reduction in segments due to fuel costs. Wanna bet more bad news follows?

I wouldn't just jump ship even if I were at the very bottom. I remember in the 2001/2002 time frame I advanced over 100 numbers at NJA due to "greener pastures" at Delta and United. Most if not all were furloughed soon after, and while many returned to NJA, they are all junior to me now. You don't get to keep your number when you resign only to return later.

 

[BentOver]

Ahh, but according to the Union NJA is doomed.. Or was that last week? This week may be a different story? So I would have assumed that everybody needed to be worried

Last month tides were turning, or pendulums were swinging, or management was on their way out? I can't keep track of the weekly shifts in the forecast!

All I know is that there have been active pilots leave for Asia, several have stated they'd resign now if the right job came along....

I agree, half the SIC's will leave if possible, (the pay is not that great for them to stay) and there may be some PIC's leaving if a company like Fedex or SWA call.

 

[Pervis]

Bent, both sides are clearly posturing. No suprise there. Decisions to stay or leave are a total crap shoot. Some win, some lose. Another thing to consider is upgrade time at every carrier is years away, even at the vaunted SWA. And the merger they are going through won't make things easier. Best wishes to all decisions we make.

 

[BentOver]

Bent, both sides are clearly posturing. No suprise there. Decisions to stay or leave are a total crap shoot. Some win, some lose. Another thing to consider is upgrade time at every carrier is years away, even at the vaunted SWA. And the merger they are going through won't make things easier. Best wishes to all decisions we make.

I definitely agree about posturing.. Nothing is as good or bad as one side says...Politics definitely in play.


With all due respect though. The words "Netjets" and "upgrades" cannot be included in the same sentence.. Let alone when compared to major airlines... SIC pay at Netjets ends at 10 yrs. and doesn't top $100K(not to mention the fact that being an SIC on a small corporate a/c for 10 years is insane.).

Compared to SWA/Delta/and in some cases JB... SIC pay easily tops $100K and in less than half the time it would take a NJA SIC...

Bottom line, being an SIC at NJA is not very lucrative, and a bit ridiculuous in the grand scheme of things. Let's see.. FO on an Ultra for 10 years at maybe $80K with no schedule OR !0 year FO on a MD-88, 737, or possibly 75/76 with an adjustable schedule, and more money... Easy decision.

Time will tell.. But I definitely think the seniority list will see some adjustments come the next year or two... I'm guessing maybe 200 will be the low end of the attrition. (as long as there is some hiring at the majors, or even corporate outfits..)

 

[CE750Driver]

I definitely agree about posturing.. Nothing is as good or bad as one side says...Politics definitely in play.


With all due respect though. The words "Netjets" and "upgrades" cannot be included in the same sentence.. Let alone when compared to major airlines... SIC pay at Netjets ends at 10 yrs. and doesn't top $100K(not to mention the fact that being an SIC on a small corporate a/c for 10 years is insane.).

Compared to SWA/Delta/and in some cases JB... SIC pay easily tops $100K and in less than half the time it would take a NJA SIC...

Bottom line, being an SIC at NJA is not very lucrative, and a bit ridiculuous in the grand scheme of things. Let's see.. FO on an Ultra for 10 years at maybe $80K with no schedule OR !0 year FO on a MD-88, 737, or possibly 75/76 with an adjustable schedule, and more money... Easy decision.

Time will tell.. But I definitely think the seniority list will see some adjustments come the next year or two... I'm guessing maybe 200 will be the low end of the attrition. (as long as there is some hiring at the majors, or even corporate outfits..)

Some true, some not there Bent. 18 day, 10 year FO on large cabin (which anyone over 6 years is on if they so choose), is $107,768. That's with no overtime which will add 5 to 7 grand to that no problem. At NJA you can choose your base without worrying about seniority, or not wanting to upgrade, or change equipment, because you don't want to commute. You keep your airline miles, hotel points, and fuel rewards. Also, within 5 to 7 years, upgrades will most likey happen. There are 20 year FOs at USair, no?(On the 767 at 90 hours a month, they make 105,840, less than a G FO at NJA)

I have many friends at the majors, most of them have suffered hard with the changes of schedules, bases, and contracts. I haven't changed one thing, and my FO friends here at NJA have not either.

I'm not saying staying or going from NJA to the majors is either good or bad. At some point though, you have to look at quality of life, as well as career earnings. I would rather make a million less in my life, and have a set schedule, base, and diamond or gold membership in every hotel and airline. I like looking at my schedule a year ahead of time and telling my son. Yes, I will be home for your Birthday.

Its all perspective, and what is important to you (Career earnings, may not be more important to someone else). I am also not convinced that someone hired in 2005 at NJA, and at a major, would have a huge career earnings difference.

Cheers.

 

[BentOver]

Some true, some not there Bent. 18 day, 10 year FO on large cabin (which anyone over 6 years is on if they so choose), is $107,768. Also, within 5 to 7 years, upgrades will most likey happen. There are 20 year FOs at USair, no?(On the 767 at 90 hours a month, they make 105,840, less than a G FO at NJA)OK so there is a very small percentage....Senior FO's on a large cabin who have to work 18 days a month to barely make $100K. For the rest of the 98% ......

I have many friends at the majors, most of them have suffered hard with the changes of schedules, bases, and contracts. I haven't changed one thing, and my FO friends here at NJA have not either.

I'm not saying staying or going from NJA to the majors is either good or bad. At some point though, you have to look at quality of life, as well as career earnings. I would rather make a million less in my life, and have a set schedule, base, and diamond or gold membership in every hotel and airline. I like looking at my schedule a year ahead of time and telling my son. Yes, I will be home for your Birthday. getting home for a birthday at NJA or in the airlines is very very easy.... "Hi scheduling, I'm sick. Have a nice day...":beer:

Its all perspective, and what is important to you (Career earnings, may not be more important to someone else). I am also not convinced that someone hired in 2005 at NJA, and at a major, would have a huge career earnings difference.

Cheers.

I agree many aspects about NJA QOL are superior... Which I stated earlier.. Basing, 401k contributions, contract, food, hotels etc.... But the topic of this thread is based on the current prediciment that NJA finds itself in, how many SIC's (or even PIC's) will most likely head for other opportunities... I agree that the grass isn't necessarily greener. But I find your opinion that SIC's have not had one change to their life at NJA both very astonishing and quite short sighted. The Union most certainly doesn't know what is going on. Management isn't saying, so what you have is many mnany SIC's having to worry and put every major decision on hold until a time that some decision is made...

Obviously from the seat you sit in, along with Pervis, your worries may not be as great.

Again this isn't a "let's bash NJA. This is a "what's the guess as to how much attrition may occur.

 

[pilotyip]

With the lack of other really super jobs out here, why would someone voluntarily leave a really good job?

 

[OPECJet]

With the lack of other really super jobs out here, why would someone voluntarily leave a really good job?

Fear of another furlough.

There are rumblings going on from highly credible sources that there will be another round with a number in the triple digits. If an FO on the bottom of the active seniority list has a chance to bail for something else it's a good time to take it.

Additionally, with the age breakdown of the top half of the seniority list very few upgrades will happen at NJA without lots of growth. That isn't happening and with the current clueless management it isn't going to.

 

[gunfyter]

I don't think there will be another furlough any time soon.

I didn't count but in the bottom 300 it looks like at least 250 are Excel SICs... Probably another 30 in the X and Sovereign. I don't know how you operate the Excel if there is a furlough.

 

[Wankel7]

I don't think there will be another furlough any time soon.

I didn't count but in the bottom 300 it looks like at least 250 are Excel SICs... Probably another 30 in the X and Sovereign. I don't know how you operate the Excel if there is a furlough.

How many Excel Captains ?

 

[RideandDrive]

They are handing out LOAs of up to 3 years like mad. And yes I was on the excel and yes I took the LOA. Why would they do that if we are short staffed? There are over 100 guys in various stages of displacement to fill the folks who bail.

Also, I wish people would stop using the 18 day schedule as a pay basis compared to the airlines. That schedule is dreadful and compares to reserve at a regional airline. My 7 and 7 pay was still under 70,000 on year five. That money isnt that hard to make at a decent lcc or other airline. Plus I dont have to vacuum and put up with the other duties that fractional flying entails. Finally, don't get me started on the Excel versus A320 comparison.

 

[CE750Driver]

I agree many aspects about NJA QOL are superior... Which I stated earlier.. Basing, 401k contributions, contract, food, hotels etc.... But the topic of this thread is based on the current prediciment that NJA finds itself in, how many SIC's (or even PIC's) will most likely head for other opportunities... I agree that the grass isn't necessarily greener. But I find your opinion that SIC's have not had one change to their life at NJA both very astonishing and quite short sighted. The Union most certainly doesn't know what is going on. Management isn't saying, so what you have is many mnany SIC's having to worry and put every major decision on hold until a time that some decision is made...

Obviously from the seat you sit in, along with Pervis, your worries may not be as great.


Again this isn't a "let's bash NJA. This is a "what's the guess as to how much attrition may occur.

I would bet there will be a few leave. Not any significant amount. 20 a year would be my guess.

 

[OPECJet]

I don't think there will be another furlough any time soon.

I didn't count but in the bottom 300 it looks like at least 250 are Excel SICs... Probably another 30 in the X and Sovereign. I don't know how you operate the Excel if there is a furlough.

The union seems to think there will be one.

You'd backfill the open Excel spots with the guys coming out of dead fleets. 800XPH, Beechjunk, whatever else they're parking.

Hopefully this doesn't play out and the company turns around, but if I was on the bottom of the active list I'd be looking for another job. Even if it does turn around there's no getting around being strapped to the right seat for another decade and the pay that goes with it. That in and of itself would be / might be/ will be a dealbreaker for me. If NJA recalled me tomorrow I'd go back and let them pay me to get current again. Then it's resume updating time.

 

[gunfyter]

I thought of that ... but I think it would take too long to backfill ... I would think the economy will recover and demand for pilots increase before they could pull that off.

When that happens, I think enough NJ SICs will get picked up by airlines that any need for more furlough will be mitigated....

I do believe in the YIPsters coming pilot shortage. We have been waiting for decades but this time ... with the 1500 hr requirement ... no pilot mills promising zero time to First Officer seat will be able to fill the gap. The regionals will actually have to bump up their pay to keep people and so will the Fracs.

 

[BentOver]

I don't think there will be another furlough any time soon.

I didn't count but in the bottom 300 it looks like at least 250 are Excel SICs... Probably another 30 in the X and Sovereign. I don't know how you operate the Excel if there is a furlough.

This was the same thinking that went on the first time..It turned out to be inaccurate.

 

[OPECJet]

I thought of that ... but I think it would take too long to backfill ... I would think the economy will recover and demand for pilots increase before they could pull that off.

When that happens, I think enough NJ SICs will get picked up by airlines that any need for more furlough will be mitigated....

I do believe in the YIPsters coming pilot shortage. We have been waiting for decades but this time ... with the 1500 hr requirement ... no pilot mills promising zero time to First Officer seat will be able to fill the gap. The regionals will actually have to bump up their pay to keep people and so will the Fracs.

I think EJM sell offs would pick up the slack. NJA demand at this point is independent of the economy recovering with current management at the helm. The company will not expand until the service provided meets the asking price.

Enough SICs getting picked up at airlines is a possibility to mitigate furloughs, but it's still further shrinkage of the pilot group and company.

I'm not convinced the 1500 rule will have much impact. It's not really a 1500 hour rule. It's an ATP rule, and will be manipulated around in a way that will enable low time guys to keep getting hired.