Netjets attrition prediction--hey that rhymes!!

[pilotyip]

With the lack of other really super jobs out here, why would someone voluntarily leave a really good job?

 

[OPECJet]

With the lack of other really super jobs out here, why would someone voluntarily leave a really good job?

Fear of another furlough.

There are rumblings going on from highly credible sources that there will be another round with a number in the triple digits. If an FO on the bottom of the active seniority list has a chance to bail for something else it's a good time to take it.

Additionally, with the age breakdown of the top half of the seniority list very few upgrades will happen at NJA without lots of growth. That isn't happening and with the current clueless management it isn't going to.

 

[gunfyter]

I don't think there will be another furlough any time soon.

I didn't count but in the bottom 300 it looks like at least 250 are Excel SICs... Probably another 30 in the X and Sovereign. I don't know how you operate the Excel if there is a furlough.

 

[Wankel7]

I don't think there will be another furlough any time soon.

I didn't count but in the bottom 300 it looks like at least 250 are Excel SICs... Probably another 30 in the X and Sovereign. I don't know how you operate the Excel if there is a furlough.

How many Excel Captains ?

 

[RideandDrive]

They are handing out LOAs of up to 3 years like mad. And yes I was on the excel and yes I took the LOA. Why would they do that if we are short staffed? There are over 100 guys in various stages of displacement to fill the folks who bail.

Also, I wish people would stop using the 18 day schedule as a pay basis compared to the airlines. That schedule is dreadful and compares to reserve at a regional airline. My 7 and 7 pay was still under 70,000 on year five. That money isnt that hard to make at a decent lcc or other airline. Plus I dont have to vacuum and put up with the other duties that fractional flying entails. Finally, don't get me started on the Excel versus A320 comparison.

 

[CE750Driver]

I agree many aspects about NJA QOL are superior... Which I stated earlier.. Basing, 401k contributions, contract, food, hotels etc.... But the topic of this thread is based on the current prediciment that NJA finds itself in, how many SIC's (or even PIC's) will most likely head for other opportunities... I agree that the grass isn't necessarily greener. But I find your opinion that SIC's have not had one change to their life at NJA both very astonishing and quite short sighted. The Union most certainly doesn't know what is going on. Management isn't saying, so what you have is many mnany SIC's having to worry and put every major decision on hold until a time that some decision is made...

Obviously from the seat you sit in, along with Pervis, your worries may not be as great.


Again this isn't a "let's bash NJA. This is a "what's the guess as to how much attrition may occur.

I would bet there will be a few leave. Not any significant amount. 20 a year would be my guess.

 

[OPECJet]

I don't think there will be another furlough any time soon.

I didn't count but in the bottom 300 it looks like at least 250 are Excel SICs... Probably another 30 in the X and Sovereign. I don't know how you operate the Excel if there is a furlough.

The union seems to think there will be one.

You'd backfill the open Excel spots with the guys coming out of dead fleets. 800XPH, Beechjunk, whatever else they're parking.

Hopefully this doesn't play out and the company turns around, but if I was on the bottom of the active list I'd be looking for another job. Even if it does turn around there's no getting around being strapped to the right seat for another decade and the pay that goes with it. That in and of itself would be / might be/ will be a dealbreaker for me. If NJA recalled me tomorrow I'd go back and let them pay me to get current again. Then it's resume updating time.

 

[gunfyter]

I thought of that ... but I think it would take too long to backfill ... I would think the economy will recover and demand for pilots increase before they could pull that off.

When that happens, I think enough NJ SICs will get picked up by airlines that any need for more furlough will be mitigated....

I do believe in the YIPsters coming pilot shortage. We have been waiting for decades but this time ... with the 1500 hr requirement ... no pilot mills promising zero time to First Officer seat will be able to fill the gap. The regionals will actually have to bump up their pay to keep people and so will the Fracs.

 

[BentOver]

I don't think there will be another furlough any time soon.

I didn't count but in the bottom 300 it looks like at least 250 are Excel SICs... Probably another 30 in the X and Sovereign. I don't know how you operate the Excel if there is a furlough.

This was the same thinking that went on the first time..It turned out to be inaccurate.

 

[OPECJet]

I thought of that ... but I think it would take too long to backfill ... I would think the economy will recover and demand for pilots increase before they could pull that off.

When that happens, I think enough NJ SICs will get picked up by airlines that any need for more furlough will be mitigated....

I do believe in the YIPsters coming pilot shortage. We have been waiting for decades but this time ... with the 1500 hr requirement ... no pilot mills promising zero time to First Officer seat will be able to fill the gap. The regionals will actually have to bump up their pay to keep people and so will the Fracs.

I think EJM sell offs would pick up the slack. NJA demand at this point is independent of the economy recovering with current management at the helm. The company will not expand until the service provided meets the asking price.

Enough SICs getting picked up at airlines is a possibility to mitigate furloughs, but it's still further shrinkage of the pilot group and company.

I'm not convinced the 1500 rule will have much impact. It's not really a 1500 hour rule. It's an ATP rule, and will be manipulated around in a way that will enable low time guys to keep getting hired.