More Mergers?

[Mkubwa]

I think many of these mega-mergers are more fantasy than reality...particularly with fuel prices this high. If fuel stays this high, I think eventually the creditors and investors are going to realize that they have to let one (or two) carriers liquidate. The only question is who gets liquidated???

Med,

Small carriers, e.g. US, ATA, might be liquidated but forget about the larger carriers, e.g. NW, DL, UA. Historically, if a strike merited a PEB to halt then the carrier was (and is) considered too vital to shut down. Even without the historical precedent the liquidation of a large carrier would decimate local economies and the politicians can't have that. Oh yes, and then there's GECAS - got to keep paying those leases, you know.

Job losses via furloughs will fly under the radar. A "few" jobs lost beats the whole show packing up and leaving town. Plus, it maintains the current state of unreasonable over-competition ensuring that airlines have no pricing power and that the traveling public maintains the privilege to complain about service while paying unsustainably low fares.

The question to ask is: who's making money off this disaster and how? Obviously, someone is - why would anyone throw good money after bad? Find these folks (GECAS, airline managements, bankruptcy lawyers, consultants, flight school owners who crank out pilots like sausages, clueless and detached economists [Kahn] who are only concerned with building their academic reputation - screw everyone else, the federal government with their laughable pilot licensing standards and Republican free market horsesh!t completely unsuited for a safety-critical industry) and you've found the enemy.

The 1200 stapled ex-TWA'ers provided a nice cushion.

If you look at the AA pilot contracts of the past you'll notice they resemble Detroit auto worker contracts more than major airline pilot contracts. In other words, they were all about the number of jobs - not the quality of those jobs. As a result, AA was grossly overmanned. Add in 9/11, a recession, transparency of pricing via the Internet, the backlash from the gouged business traveler, the rapid growth of LCC's as an outgrowth of this, and you can see that there was a giant glob of adipose tissue hanging over the Texas-sized belt buckle of American Airlines. When it came time for Big Cletus to get himself up off the couch, pick the lint out of his navel and shape up, the bulk of the bulk that needed burning off happened to be the TWA folks.

On a related note, AA's management was smart enough to know that too much competition is a bad thing (howls of protest from the bus riding public heard in the background). AA bought up competition (TWA, Reno, Air Cal, etc.) and integrated the workforce to make the deal pass muster with the politicos.

 

[alaskaplt]

Alaska and Virgin America.

 

[F9 Driver]

Alaska and Virgin America.

At least you'd have better looking tail(s)

 

[aa73]

First, it's debatable whether the TWA aquisition caused any furloughs. Yes, AMR would've have more cash on hand and less debt but that doesn't translate into fewer furloughs. If you look around the industry you'll see little correlation.

Second, less than two thousand of the approx 3000 AA furloughs are nAAtives, hence there are not "thousands" of AA pilots furloughed.

Third, keeping one's job while another pilot is furloughed instead constitutes a windfall. The 1200 stapled ex-TWA'ers provided a nice cushion. I believe it to a fact that had AA not purchased TWA more nAAtives would be currently furloughed.

AS,

First, whatever. Thousands or not, there are a ton of pilots who lost their jobs BECAUSE of the TWA acquisition, in addition to the 9/11 setback and current factors. TWA was nothing but a bucket of debt, which AA took on. Had the acquisition not taken place, AA would have definitely furloughed anyway, but not NEARLY the amount today. Not even half, probably.

Second, keeping one's job while another pilot is furoughed is nothing more than a product of time spent at one's airline in relation to another pilot at said airline. i.e, seniority. It is only fair that AA pilots who hired on at AA get first dibs on furlough protection. Sorry, it may not sound fair, but how fair would it be to AA pilots if TWA pilots kept their jobs, and AA pilots got the boot - when those very same AA pilots were the ones to get hired at AA first - before any hint of an acquisition of a much smaller airline on the brink?

The way the deal is set up assures that pilots from both airlines both benefitted AND got screwed from the acquisition.

Having said that, I will say this - I hope that the AWA/US merger goes much more smoothly than ours did. Hoefully they will take a page out of our (AA/TWA) playbook as an example of what not to do.

 

[mach none]

At least you'd have better looking tail(s)

There are no Virgins at Alaska. We all got screwed 5/1/05.

That rumor is floating around that we are involved in some manner with Dick Branson and Virgin America. Alter ego airline for when things get tough in 07 and on? Goad the AS pilot group in to a job action and you have replacements within the air group. Maybe Horizon will be flying Airbuses before too long.

I have no doubt that our management is up to something. Virgin? Aloha? Frontier? All of the above?

 

[Delville]

It is rumored that AirTran and Alaska are candidates for some sort of deal. From a post on another thread: "The routes are almost perfectly complementary and the fleet types are very similar. Both airline's fleets are almost exactly the same size (right around 100). AirTran is going to 162 total aircraft and Alaska probably to about 125 or 130 total." The payscales are also fairly close if you check them out. Apparently, AirTran CEO Joe Leonard has been asked on a few occasions specifically about a deal with Alaska. He has denied anything of the sort. But what would you expect?

 

[pilotmejiaj]

USair/AWA
DAL/NWA
UAL/CAL


Northwest may have a leg up on other carriers in completing this deal. It has a poison pill type of agreement with Continental that could prevent another airline from merging with the Houston-based carrier.

What does the agreement say?

 

[Fly4hire]

What does the agreement say?

There are 6 clauses that restrict actions by the CAL Board without consent of
the NWA Board. The term is 25 years. (18 years remaining)
They can't be bought, merged, or parceled-out without NWA's consent. There
are also a couple of restrictions on stock transactions. NWA holds the spoiler trump card in this scenario. I'm sure it's for sale if the price is (very) high.

Don't forget NWA has 5th freedom rights from Japan onwards that cannot be transfered to another entity without being renegotiated with the Japanese, which is considered unlikely. These routes are a major attraction of NWA, and would likely result in them being the ones doing the aquiring vs. being aquired.

Personally I hope it's AMR, and then NWA ALPA could staple all the APA pilots, except for the Reno, TWA, etc. former ALPA groups that they would make whole. That alone would be worth it

BTW why are so many of you paying attention to anything written by Vaughn Cordell, notorious UAL Scab?

 

[AAslag]

Personally I hope it's AMR, and then NWA ALPA could staple all the APA pilots, except for the Reno, TWA, etc. former ALPA groups that they would make whole. That alone would be worth it

Now, THAT, would be worth the price of admission.

 

[pilotmejiaj]

There are 6 clauses that restrict actions by the CAL Board without consent of
the NWA Board. The term is 25 years. (18 years remaining)
They can't be bought, merged, or parceled-out without NWA's consent. There
are also a couple of restrictions on stock transactions. NWA holds the spoiler trump card in this scenario. I'm sure it's for sale if the price is (very) high.

Don't forget NWA has 5th freedom rights from Japan onwards that cannot be transfered to another entity without being renegotiated with the Japanese, which is considered unlikely. These routes are a major attraction of NWA, and would likely result in them being the ones doing the aquiring vs. being aquired.

Personally I hope it's AMR, and then NWA ALPA could staple all the APA pilots, except for the Reno, TWA, etc. former ALPA groups that they would make whole. That alone would be worth it

BTW why are so many of you paying attention to anything written by Vaughn Cordell, notorious UAL Scab?

OK, Thanks