More Delta Trouble

[General Lee]

WOW...



guess it hurts when people other than YOU have something to say....



whay makes you think that DAL's lobbyist will have any more success lobbying Congress than UALs???

Just because YOU talked to an MEC rep?

Do you really think it is only the DAL lobbyist? I think every Major has people up in DC trying to show Congress that without it, the PBGC will be under even more water. You see, sometimes it takes some examples (like United and USAir dropping their pensions and costing the PBGC $billions) before they can see the light. The Dalpa rep I talked to today seemed optomistic. I don't think UAL's rep even brought this up. This is a recent develpoment. One airline probably couldn't do much, let alone two in Chap 11. But, Congress will see that the others will probably join them if they do not extend the pension payments. I don't think it is that hard to understand, do you? This would also help other industries, not just the airlines.



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Spirit isn't looking good at the present, but we are a semi-successful LCC; AND we are currently outsourcing our heavy maintenance..........all the way to Texas. I don't know how long it will last because the new Airbii shouldn't need much in the way of heavy checks for a while, but the last I checked, every MD80 we fly is given it's "C" Check at Fort Worth. Not that any of this really matters in this Delta discussion, I just wanted to show that it is possible to do your own heavy maintenance.

enigma

edit: the FTW facility belongs to Spirit and is operated as Spirit Aviation Services. We maintain the Part 145(?) repair station certification and are currently performing a C Check on two of our own DC9's and one customer 737advanced. It is the old Eagle Aviation Services facility up on the north end of the field.

Enigma,

Of course I would rather have our people working on our planes, even the heavy checks. But, we obviously don't have that luxury right now, and only DL and AA were doing it anyway. We will still do some minor checks, but the rest will likely go to Miami (almost another country) and Vancouver in Canada.(I think I read that in the article) Jetblue does their checks in El Salvador. I think this deal is for 4 different groups of planes, which total in the mid 200's. Other aircraft will still be done by us. We currently have over 7000 mechanics, and up to 2000 may be furloughed. We are closing a large facility in TPA, which will result in a loss of 300 jobs there, and we already lost 1200 mechanics based in DFW. That is rough, and I hope they do come back in better days. We have to compete, though.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

"and you already think I am mangement"

No, you just talk like one!

You said I sounded like management, when I was pointing out that it was easier for management to take more from the others because they have no union and don't have a contract. That is untapped potential for management. That is true, and I am not giddy about it, but rather pointing out the obvious. Management could tomorrow just give them a 50% pay cut and they could do NOTHING about it. Sad but true, and that is why I pay big bucks to ALPA---to atleast fight for me. We don't always win, though, and I know that.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Dizel8]

Yes, they could take 50 percent, but they end up with people who are not very happy and there goes work ethics and productivity!

Now, I doubt that they would take more than 10-15 percent, but that still smarts and while you and I may enjoy this crazy gig, the people affected may not be so enarmored. If working other places pays similar, then you may see people leaving.

If you want an example of that, take a look at U. They had to raise what they were offering new hire ground workers, simply to attract people, even then, at the new rates, rumour has it, that the quality of people they attract are not "good".

 

[8vATE]

Do you really think it is only the DAL lobbyist? I think every Major has people up in DC trying to show Congress that without it, the PBGC will be under even more water. You see, sometimes it takes some examples (like United and USAir dropping their pensions and costing the PBGC $billions) before they can see the light. The Dalpa rep I talked to today seemed optomistic. I don't think UAL's rep even brought this up. This is a recent develpoment.

Bye Bye--General Lee

I think this is where we differ...
This is NOT a new development as you say from my perspective.

From a USAirways point of view... this has been going on for quite some time...
Since the MEC vote to voluntarily terminate the A plan and have the PBGC take it over..

I BELIEVE there has been quite a bit of Congressional attempted action on this already... I recall a bill failing about 3-6 mos ago trying to address the airline pension issue...

Hey... I don't want anyone to lose their pensions...

But I'm saying it strikes me as a little unfair that you are saying this is going to save you guys... in essence .. changing the rules in the middle of the game for you guys.... while UAL and the AAA groups are dangling from their shoestrings...

This is ugly...

The A plan WAS the gold ring in this job....

The underfunding of these plans is borderline criminal...

FWIW....

(no bombs thrown)


I believe NWA is going to stop funding their A plan...
And start up a new DC plan..
You guys could do this..
And it won't take any gov't handouts...

 

[General Lee]

I can understand that, and the pension issue was brought up and it was given a reprieve in Congress---I think a 2 year bump(?). That was great and it probably was just a stop gap at the time. I think there are a lot of industries now feeling the affects of higher fuel prices and the weak dollar, and I think the PBGC could really get under water even more if other airlines or other companies decide that they can't afford the pension payments, and many large Major airlines are looking to dump them if they can't get extensions, and the PBGC would be left footing the bill. I am sure the PBGC is hoping that the airlines get help too. And, we just started a D.C. plan but still have huge payments like the others.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Dizel8]

The only problem with stretching out payments, is the fact that the bill still comes due. Now, better times may be ahead, but when?

It is a catch 22. If payments are stretched, it may save the plan for now, but who knows about the future. If payments are not stretched, the company may terminate now or be forced to pay with money it really does not have.

As for the PBGC, they might actually prefer to get the plan now, before it gets any deeper in the hole. IIRC they took over one from UAL, even though UAL had not officially cancelled it, but they had stopped funding it.

Not sure there is a solution!

 

[General Lee]

The only problem with stretching out payments, is the fact that the bill still comes due. Now, better times may be ahead, but when?

It is a catch 22. If payments are stretched, it may save the plan for now, but who knows about the future. If payments are not stretched, the company may terminate now or be forced to pay with money it really does not have.

As for the PBGC, they might actually prefer to get the plan now, before it gets any deeper in the hole. IIRC they took over one from UAL, even though UAL had not officially cancelled it, but they had stopped funding it.

Not sure there is a solution!

I thought this industry was in a cycle? That means better times ahead, right? Maybe. These are no doubt lean years for us, and we just need to get through them, and stretching out the payments will help with that. What if we open up Anwar and oil plunges? It could happen..... What if one of the other Majors calls it quits? Fares could surge upward for awhile. I don't know----but anything could happen, and the PBGC does NOT want anymore to deal with. That is the key, they probably are for changes too (not only the Major airlines). Also, politically, the republicans don't want to be seen as the people who gave up on 200,000 pensions (all of the Majors combined...). That could hurt them eventually.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[8vATE]

I thought this industry was in a cycle? That means better times ahead, right? Maybe.

Bye Bye--General Lee

This is looking back to the past...

I really believe that this industry is in a transformation....

As I mentioned before...
SWA reaching a critical mass....
the internet.... consumer angst....

This industry will always have cyclical tendencies due to the leverage/interest rate issues..

But I really think there is a new dynamic here...

Who would have thought Valuejet/Airtran would be sitting there in ATL now with an all NEW fleet?

Who would ever believe that an upstart would survive in JFK?

I've seen this from many different perspectives... commuter, cargo, furlough and now jb...

I'm not sure we will ever go back to the past...

Yes the LCCs cherry pick routes....
But you know what... people in CVG happily drive down to SDF to get on SWA..
And they love to hate DAL... (same with the locals in PIT and USAirways)

The point is... You don't HAVE to fly in to every market....

As I said before...
I don't take joy from seeing others suffer..

But the DENIAL and apparent arrogance of some people really makes me wonder what some people are thinking...

DAL guys strike me as being in denial.... and greedy...
I think you guys are coming to terms..

USAirways guys have been down trodden for so long..
I'm amazed at their perserverence..

UAL had to take the cake for arrogance...
Man.... those guys wouldn't even look at us during the Wolf sale proposal..

And the ultimate KY Jelly guys.... TWA ... poor bastards...

this industry is vicious...

 

[General Lee]

This is looking back to the past...

I really believe that this industry is in a transformation....

As I mentioned before...
SWA reaching a critical mass....
the internet.... consumer angst....

This industry will always have cyclical tendencies due to the leverage/interest rate issues..

But I really think there is a new dynamic here...

Who would have thought Valuejet/Airtran would be sitting there in ATL now with an all NEW fleet?

Who would ever believe that an upstart would survive in JFK?

I've seen this from many different perspectives... commuter, cargo, furlough and now jb...

I'm not sure we will ever go back to the past...

Yes the LCCs cherry pick routes....
But you know what... people in CVG happily drive down to SDF to get on SWA..
And they love to hate DAL... (same with the locals in PIT and USAirways)

The point is... You don't HAVE to fly in to every market....

As I said before...
I don't take joy from seeing others suffer..

But the DENIAL and apparent arrogance of some people really makes me wonder what some people are thinking...

DAL guys strike me as being in denial.... and greedy...
I think you guys are coming to terms..

USAirways guys have been down trodden for so long..
I'm amazed at their perserverence..

UAL had to take the cake for arrogance...
Man.... those guys wouldn't even look at us during the Wolf sale proposal..

And the ultimate KY Jelly guys.... TWA ... poor bastards...

this industry is vicious...

You gave some good examples. We were supposedly told this by our former chief Ron Allen in 1994---that Southwest was coming and we needed to change. We went through a period called 7.5 (trying to get 7.5 cents per seat mile) and everyone suffered (I got on in 96). Then in the late 90's we had our best years ever due to the dot com deals etc. That was part of the 10 year cycle, except this one we are in now is a really deep trough...... You also have to remember this:

!. CVG--our passenger loads have jumped dramatically since we started simplifares there. We did so well with the locals that we decided to start the full system wide program early because of it.

2. Were our guys "greedy?" At the time of the contract, we could afford it. Then bad things started to happen, and eventually got worse. We offered 10% a couple years back that would have helped at the time, but they wanted more, they always do. Right after our contract was signed we had the $1 billion Comair strike, and then bought $2 billion worth of stock in a buy back, which evaporated in days after 9-11. That is $3 billion less right after we signed. That wasn't our fault. We did bring the bar up for everyone, but unfortunately everything fell apart (not our fault) afterwards.

3. Customer dis-satisfaction. We got 3rd place (behind Southwest and Jetblue) in customer satisfaction in the latest survey. Not bad--and that was Mainline, not Song---which I am fond of. We beat every other Major and a few LCCs. That shows that even our old stews are trying to make this work.

4. Denial. I don't see that with our pilots. We weren't going to just give everything away that we fought hard for. We kept raising the ante, but they would not take it. Grinstein finally said "Do it once, do it right." Well, we gave them $1 billion a year for 5 years (probably 7 with future negotiations). We also have had 1000 Captains leave since last May and more on the way this May due to a Gatt rate rising. I don't think they are in denial, they see that they could possibly lose their lump sum or the option for a lump sum, and risking that would be too great. That is acceptance, and the rest of us have trust that our management has a way out of this. They seem to have some sort of plan going, a transformation plan, and a lot has been done already. We increased efficiency of our ATL hub tremendously----it is like night and day now---no takeoff lines when the weather is good. (most of the time) Simplifares, tv commercials, and cutbacks designed to make us leaner. It is amazing, and we are on our way to a major change---but we need more time, and selling DCI seems to be a way of getting there. It will be interesting, but saving $5 billion a year will be a sight to see.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[N2264J]

I thought this industry was in a cycle...Denial. I don't see that with our pilots.

I doubt the price of oil will ever come down. We are competing on a global market for the same limited natural resources with other huge countries like China and India that are industrializing like gangbusters.

This ain't no cycle - the earth has shifted beneath our feet.

 

[MedFlyer]

What you're missing General is that the 5 Billion in cuts was based on the price of oil settling down to about $35 a barrel. If oil stays closer to $55 a barrel, DL will need an extra $1+ Billion in cuts, ANNUALLY. Of course, if oil goes higher it gets uglier. One Goldman Sachs analyst is projecting possible super spikes in oil as high as $105 a barrel. Yikes!!!

Keep in mind that the recently announced maintenance cuts are part of the $5 billion cuts, NOT in addition to the $5 Billion. So far, the only announcement DL has made in regard to additional cuts is grounding more mainline planes. Fares are starting to drift upwards which is good, but not nearly fast enough to offset fuel.

Of course, you can sit around and hope other carriers die first...as I'm sure you do. But not only is that pathetic, but it's just a bad business plan.

 

[DaveGriffin]

Give me a break. Drastic times necessitate drastic measures.

General Leo;

Bad enough to give another 10-20% giveback? No? Why not? Everyone else is doing it. Your 'Drastic Times' call to action applies only to groups other than the DALPA seniors.

Did you know DAVE that we are getting more recalls in May than initially advertised? You didn't?

You are too detached from the real world. We had 20 recalls in April and only 16 scheduled for May. In case you can't figure it out General Math Wiz, that's a decline. And it will continue as the less fuel efficeint planes are retired.

Your frenzied support of the staus quo illustrates your total misunderstanding and intentional mischaracterization of the situation. You and your senior buddies are going down, big time.

 

[skykid]

Unfortunatley Medflyers analysis on this thread is in my opinion accurate and scary. As he has shown by bringing in the articles, he is not the only one who is warning Delta may not be positioned well for a Ch 11 survival. It looks like Delta mgt and some analysts are wondering the same thing.

GL - any relief you get from Congress on pension payments only puts off the inevitable. Your LCC competition doesn't make defined pension payments. They are adding seats in doulbe digit percentages/year. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[General Lee]

I doubt the price of oil will ever come down. We are competing on a global market for the same limited natural resources with other huge countries like China and India that are industrializing like gangbusters.

This ain't no cycle - the earth has shifted beneath our feet.

A fuel surcharge that sticks shatters your statement. We have had 3 so far, and more to come.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

General Leo;

Bad enough to give another 10-20% giveback? No? Why not? Everyone else is doing it. Your 'Drastic Times' call to action applies only to groups other than the DALPA seniors.



You are too detached from the real world. We had 20 recalls in April and only 16 scheduled for May. In case you can't figure it out General Math Wiz, that's a decline. And it will continue as the less fuel efficeint planes are retired.

Your frenzied support of the staus quo illustrates your total misunderstanding and intentional mischaracterization of the situation. You and your senior buddies are going down, big time.

Davie,

May was supposed to have 10. Are you paying attention to the code-a-phones? Also, we were supposed to have NONE for the year, and then ALPA got them to change it to around 125. Did you know that genius? And, to top it off, looks like we might have another large chunk of retirements in May due to the Gatt rate rising. Again, more recalls are probable. Do you have ADD?


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[8vATE]

One Goldman Sachs analyst is projecting possible super spikes in oil as high as $105 a barrel. Yikes!!!

Of course, you can sit around and hope other carriers die first...as I'm sure you do. But not only is that pathetic, but it's just a bad business plan.

I heard about that $105 barrel projection and just about lost my lunch...

FWIW..

I believe Delta IS being proactive .....
Simplifares... the ATL hub reorganization... Song....

Look at what Continental and NWA have done...
not much by comparison..

Its too bad labor couldn't come to the table earlier though..
But that's the nature of the beast...

The trend has been multiple givebacks.... UAL, USAirways....
The target keeps moving lower and lower...

 

[DaveGriffin]

Davie,

May was supposed to have 10. Are you paying attention to the code-a-phones? Also, we were supposed to have NONE for the year, and then ALPA got them to change it to around 125. Did you know that genius? And, to top it off, looks like we might have another large chunk of retirements in May due to the Gatt rate rising. Again, more recalls are probable. Do you have ADD?


Bye Bye--General Lee

The recall update kool aide from Larry is weak and worthless. He's got a paying job, and it is to keep the remaining furloughs happy and smiling while the boots of the seniors are placed firmly up their rear ends.

A decline is a decline, no matter how you spin it General Leo. Let's check the rate of recall at the end of the year and see how great it is.

From your perspective, the more juniors who stay furloughed the better. If the furloughs 0% pay rate funds Delta's survival until oil drops back to $40 or lower, that is far better for the pilots with paychecks than an additional 10-20% giveback.

With that in mind, I'm sure you wouldn't really mind additional furloughs, even with a downgrade, as long as it stops about 100 away from you.

 

[General Lee]

The recall update kool aide from Larry is weak and worthless. He's got a paying job, and it is to keep the remaining furloughs happy and smiling while the boots of the seniors are placed firmly up their rear ends.

A decline is a decline, no matter how you spin it General Leo. Let's check the rate of recall at the end of the year and see how great it is.

From your perspective, the more juniors who stay furloughed the better. If the furloughs 0% pay rate funds Delta's survival until oil drops back to $40 or lower, that is far better for the pilots with paychecks than an additional 10-20% giveback.

With that in mind, I'm sure you wouldn't really mind additional furloughs, even with a downgrade, as long as it stops about 100 away from you.

Now you are attacking the furlough coordinator, who is also furloughed and has a decent pay check. You are a classic Davie.



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[N2264J]

Originally Posted by N2264J
I doubt the price of oil will ever come down. We are competing on a global market for the same limited natural resources with other huge countries like China and India that are industrializing like gangbusters.

This ain't no cycle - the earth has shifted beneath our feet.

A fuel surcharge that sticks shatters your statement. We have had 3 so far, and more to come.

OK, I'll bite. Walk me through how Delta putting a fuel surcharge on ticket prices somehow debunks the reality that the US is competing for the same oil with other economic powerhouses in the world, thereby making the likelihood of oil prices ever again being what they were in the 90s, remote.