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CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Perhaps the battle for the Milwaukee hub is only just beginning.
Last week,
Northwest joined with investor TPG Capital to acquire Milwaukee-based
Midwest Airlines for $452 million. That blocked
AirTran's effort, dating back to late 2006, to acquire the carrier. The deal closed after the Department of Justice ended its review, enabling Midwest shareholders to sell out for $17 a share.
Times have changed since the bid was offered and accepted in mid-August. Oil prices have risen about 20%, the Amex Airline Index has fallen by roughly the same amount and airlines have rushed to reduce domestic capacity.
Last month, Midwest announced it will lay off 380 people from subsidiary Skyway Airlines, as it moves to outsource regional flying. Meanwhile, AirTran has been building its Milwaukee service, which will total 20 daily departures to 13 destinations by May.
AirTran CEO Bob Fornaro suggested during an earnings
conference call last week that Northwest may be feeling "buyer's remorse" about the deal. A year ago, he added, Midwest was anticipating future profits.
"They missed the numbers by a mile," he said. "We think Midwest has got a lot of issues, and they will only get worse."
As for AirTran's Milwaukee expansion, Fornaro said, "We got tired of waiting around."
Northwest CEO Doug Steenland, asked during the Northwest earnings
conference call, denied the airline regretted the Midwest acquisition. "We think it was the right decision then [and] the right decision today," he said. "If you look at things over the longer term, we're pleased with the result."
AirTran's new service will include seasonal flights to Boston and three west coast cities, as well as added flights to Las Vegas. Service to New York's LaGuardia Airport is also planned. Already, AirTran serves Atlanta, Baltimore, Las Vegas, Orlando, Phoenix and Tampa.
Currently, AirTran has a 7% market share in Milwaukee, compared to 54% for Midwest and 12.6% for Northwest. It operates out of four gates, and could offer about 10 daily flights per gate, about twice what is currently planned.
Milwaukee is not an AirTran hub, at least not yet. "It's a focus city, serving large local markets, but it does offer the benefit of having some connections," said AirTran Senior Vice President Kevin Healy, in an interview. The new West Coast flights will allow for convenient connections to East Coast markets, he said. Still, connecting traffic will involve less than 20% of the carrier's Milwaukee passengers.
Northwest's engagement in merger talks with
Delta also raises questions about Milwaukee's future.
Northwest holds 47% of Midwest's shares and has the right to acquire TPG's shares in the future. For the moment, Northwest is a passive investor and will not participate in day-to-day management decisions, a spokesman said.
Still, were Northwest to merge with Delta, there would be the possibility to create an airline that had control of hubs in Cincinnati, Detroit, Milwaukee and Minneapolis.
The Department of Justice would likely have concerns, Healy says. "Because Northwest has the right to purchase all the Midwest shares, there could be a requirement for divestiture in Cincinnati or Milwaukee or to give up space in a primary hub, because that would be a problematic level of concentration," he says.
To a degree, Northwest purchased long-term hub insurance through its acquisition, which blocked the immediate creation of an AirTran hub separating its own Detroit and Minneapolis hubs. "They wanted to keep AirTran from building a large hub right on their doorstep," says FTN Midwest analyst Mike Derchin.
While Northwest succeeded in the short-term, long-term questions remain. "AirTran will certainly make life miserable for Midwest," Derchin says. "And if Delta and Northwest decide to merge, it will be interesting to see if Milwaukee falls out and AirTran has another chance to pick it up on the cheap."