Moak says Merger may be close for DL

[Sedona16]

Alot of assumptions here but for a guy in the bottom half of the seniority list, a DAL/NWA merger does have some advantages. In a perfect world DAL would buy 400 jets and hire 2000 pilots a year, making money hand over fist. The pilots would get 70% pay raises and add to already decent work rules. That isnt going to happen. In order to force the issue for pay raises Delta needs to keep making money. Creating a more complete route network and driving prices up a bit MAY be one way to do that. NWA also brings many more retirements in the short term to DAL pilots. With little route overlap and a healthy number of aircraft deliveries (DAL- 757/737/ and possible MD's. NWA's 787's) I dont see furloughs and in fact see the need for continued hiring depending on how many aircraft are shed (the DC9 is the wild card here). I doubt the government would approve a deal that sheds lots of jobs. If pilots who are not commuting can be base protected and still anticipate some sort of movement and good long term career expectations and a merger is going to happen this is the deal I would want.

 

[radarlove]

What attorneys did Delta hire? Anyone know the name of the firm?

I have a friend who does union work and he says there are only a handful of union friendly firms out there.

 

[400ADude]

What attorneys did Delta hire? Anyone know the name of the firm?

I have a friend who does union work and he says there are only a handful of union friendly firms out there.

http://www.cw13.com/

I believe it is these guys.

 

[jetflier]

I think it could have been. NWA was trying to move in on MEH's MKE hub, starting A319 flights to the West Coast, LAS and Florida, and also using RJs to the East Coast. When it seemed they couldn't beat them and Airtran was knocking at the door, they worked a deal with TPG to purchase them. It just doesn't pass the smell test, and was very predatory in nature. Maybe Airtran will get it's chance to buy them anyway.


Lets not forget that if NWA didn't pull back the Republic and North Central Airlines MKE hub after the merger, MEH woul never had the chance to form and begin to fly the old Republic and North Central Airlines routes.

NWA just wants to take back its old routes and hub. NWA only loaned the MKE hub to MEH.

 

[IronCityBlue]

Yep, looks like something is on it's way. I would be surprised if it were United, since I think NWA would be a better fit route and hub wise. Aircraft wise NWA doesn't have a lot in common, except 757-200s. But, we had 13 different plane types back in 2000, and now we are down to 6 or 7. It can be done, but some would have to be pared down I would think. It will be interesting indeed.


Bye Bye--General Lee

I hear this a lot, but when I think about it it just doesn't make sense. How would NWA and DAL be any better than UAL and DAL? Hub wise wouldn't it be far superior to get your hands on Chicago and DC, versus Detroit and Minny? NWA/DAL may have more redundant hubs to close, but is that a good thing or not? I would think the end result, post merger network would be a bigger consideration than just "what hubs can we close" and DAL/UAL make far more sense in that regard. Ditto for the fleets. Both NWA and UAL would compliment DAL a lot especially route wise, but I just don't see NWA being any better, and can see them being a lot worse.

 

[lowecur]

What attorneys did Delta hire? Anyone know the name of the firm?

I have a friend who does union work and he says there are only a handful of union friendly firms out there.

Hamilton, Joe, Frank, and Reynolds

imp:​

 

[catIIIc]

I think the Sky Team partnership alone is why if these mergers do happen DL/NW will be the first to merge. AF/KLM has stated many times that this is what they want.

Time will tell and good luck to us all.

 

[puddlejumper101]

everyone keeps saying DL/NWA makes more sense than DL/UAUA. To whom??? the pilots??? since when does Wall Street give a crap about what the rank and file think? Whichever deal makes Wall Street more money is the one that will happen end of story. Wall Street never waits to see if something makes sense...they will just fix it later. Plus, there is pressure to get this done before Bush leaves office. The Gov. will approve whatever right now to save the economy, even if it means job loss.

 

[johnsonrod]

I hear this a lot, but when I think about it it just doesn't make sense. How would NWA and DAL be any better than UAL and DAL? Hub wise wouldn't it be far superior to get your hands on Chicago and DC, versus Detroit and Minny? NWA/DAL may have more redundant hubs to close, but is that a good thing or not? I would think the end result, post merger network would be a bigger consideration than just "what hubs can we close" and DAL/UAL make far more sense in that regard. Ditto for the fleets. Both NWA and UAL would compliment DAL a lot especially route wise, but I just don't see NWA being any better, and can see them being a lot worse.

UAL, for the most part, is dead wood. Why would DAL want to compete more with SWA in Denver? We all know SWA is expanding there. Also, as GL stated, UAL and DAL have overlapping hubs - LAX, SLC/DEN, JFK/IAD. No way the Feds will allow a reduction of competition in those big markets. Consumers would lose big time with less competition and higher fares. Look how long it is taking the NWA-Midwest deal to happen - the hubs are too close.

Again, UAL is dead wood with no growth, increasing competition on all fronts, no real strategic plan and very low employee morale... Why get involved with that? NWA and UAL both have strong Asian networks. DAL and NWA, on the other hand, have complementary route networks (DAL has Europe/South American/Africa and limited Asia while NWA has very strong Asia and limited Europe) and hubs (except CVG/MEM - one would probably have to go). Yeah, DAL + NWA makes a lot more sense from a strategic standpoint and the combination would be a powerhouse. All they would need to figure out is the fleet mix (maybe negotiate a big deal to replace either the Airbus narrowbody or the Boeing narrowbody fleets). I am sure the regionals would be upset because the combined carriers would not need 7 regional feeders (especially if a hub closed to reduce costs). That might actually cause regional consolidation in order to compete better for low-cost feed.

With regard to the NWA-Midwest deal, we all know why it happened. NWA didn't want a bigger competitor in its backyard (MKE). AirTran + Midwest made A LOT more sense from an operational (717s) and strategic standpoint. The combination would have provided NWA with some real compeition in that part of the country. The Midwest CEO just wanted a bigger payout from the private equity firm. It's a total scam...

 

[PCL_128]

A little off subject, but if we "rank and file" were a little smarter, DALPA would invite some AirTran NPA pilots to join them as a show of unity, and the AirTran pilots would turn-out in force to show support for the Delta pilots.

Hmmm . . . . What a concept. . . . Pilots showing support for each other.

They probably would if we would join their union and end the isolationism.

 

[IronCityBlue]

UAL, for the most part, is dead wood. Why would DAL want to compete more with SWA in Denver? We all know SWA is expanding there. So a mega merger like that has, as a primary considering factor, one SWA focus city? I don't believe that. Also, as GL stated, UAL and DAL have overlapping hubs - LAX, SLC/DEN, JFK/IAD. IAD/JFK are not overlapping hubs. IAD is the DC market which is a huge international market. That would make a very valueable addition to DAL or anyone. DAL/NWA have FAR more overlapping hubs. Almost complete redundancy except, drum roll please, Minny. UAL brings Chiacgo and DC, which are FAR more valueable. SLC/DEN would probably both be "right sized" in terms of flights and flight crew bases, but that's going to happen somewhere with ALL megers. DAL/UAL present probably the smallest ammount of job loss. NWA has MEM which would be toast completely, and they already don't need DTW and MSP as international powerhouses as it is, even is CVG gets downsized, which would happen anyway to ORD's benefit with a UAL deal. No way the Feds will allow a reduction of competition in those big markets. But the will allow such a reduction in a DAL/NWA merger? Consumers would lose big time with less competition and higher fares. That's the definiton of airline mergers. That's why I don't think all airlines will be allowed to do a mega merger. Two legacy airlines will be allowed to hool up with eachother, the rest will be told "so sorry, gotta keep those prices low, ya know!" Look how long it is taking the NWA-Midwest deal to happen - the hubs are too close. Again, MEM, DTW, CVG. All close to another hub.

Again, UAL is dead wood with no growth, Actually better for a merger. A/C can be ordered in a second from an airline the size of DAL/UAL. Boeing would we themselves rushing to fill a massive 787 order for them. increasing competition on all fronts, That's everyone no real strategic plan as opposed to NWA? and very low employee morale...as opposed to NWA? Why get involved with that? NWA and UAL both have strong Asian networks. DAL and NWA, on the other hand, have complementary route networks (DAL has Europe/South American/Africa and limited Asia while NWA has very strong Asia and limited Europe Ditto for UAL, which is a flea over the atlantic compared to DAL) and hubs (except CVG/MEM - one would probably have to go). MEM, CVG, DTW... Yeah, DAL + NWA makes a lot more sense from a strategic standpoint and the combination would be a powerhouse. UAL would bring a superior fleet, just as good a route compliment and an identical hub divesture scenario, and in addition would add O&D out of ORD and DC which is more valueable than Minny and DTW, especially international out of DC. That is one of UAL's crown jewels any legacy would kill to get. All they would need to figure out is the fleet mix (maybe negotiate a big deal to replace either the Airbus narrowbody or the Boeing narrowbody fleets) DAL/UAL wouldn't have to figure out nearly as much. Much better fleet right out of the box. I am sure the regionals would be upset because the combined carriers would not need 7 regional feeders (especially if a hub closed to reduce costs). That might actually cause regional consolidation in order to compete better for low-cost feed. Agreed, but NWA offers no particular advantage over UAL here, or vice versa.

All in all, a DAL/UAL powerhouse would be the most dominant airline in the country. Star/SkyTeam issues may doom it, although the combined airline would likely have no problem getting full support from either (just not both).

 

[3ds]

DAL + NWA.

DAL gets the routes, parks the -9s and buys -90s. Fences on all bases for x years and/or "some restrictions may apply" to future fleet/domicile changes

UPS gets the 747's and freight.

 

[General Lee]

Alot of assumptions here but for a guy in the bottom half of the seniority list, a DAL/NWA merger does have some advantages. In a perfect world DAL would buy 400 jets and hire 2000 pilots a year, making money hand over fist. The pilots would get 70% pay raises and add to already decent work rules. That isnt going to happen. In order to force the issue for pay raises Delta needs to keep making money. Creating a more complete route network and driving prices up a bit MAY be one way to do that. NWA also brings many more retirements in the short term to DAL pilots. With little route overlap and a healthy number of aircraft deliveries (DAL- 757/737/ and possible MD's. NWA's 787's) I dont see furloughs and in fact see the need for continued hiring depending on how many aircraft are shed (the DC9 is the wild card here). I doubt the government would approve a deal that sheds lots of jobs. If pilots who are not commuting can be base protected and still anticipate some sort of movement and good long term career expectations and a merger is going to happen this is the deal I would want.

We have seen recently that RJs (even 76 seaters) are not always the answer, even according to Ed Bastian who decided to park some during this Winter lull season instead of paying for the high gas. (see SLC article) He knows that RJs aren't the answer. There might be an answer to the old DC9s if we do merge with NWA, and it would be something right under our noses. What is that? How about those MD90s? We have looked at them, they are cheap ($9 million or so including the engines), and they are more efficient and can carry more pax than the older DC9s. We have the sims, we know how to maintain them, and the NWA guys are already flying DC9s. It could fill in for some of them, and there are supposedly 100 of them out there, waiting to be replaced by new A320s at those INTL airlines. You never know......They could be a cheap replacement for 10 years.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

DAL + NWA.

DAL gets the routes, parks the -9s and buys -90s. Fences on all bases for x years and/or "some restrictions may apply" to future fleet/domicile changes

UPS gets the 747's and freight.

Wow, I just read your post and you mentioned the
-90s too. I already posted mine, but you and I think alike. Scary. Maybe we are the "same person?" (according to Jmoney)

But, UPS is currently parking their older 747-200s and -100s. I don't think NWA would give up their 744s, but maybe. I can see them flying those from NRT to all of the big hubs--like ATL, MSP, DTW, JFK, and LAX.



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[3ds]

Wow, I just read your post and you mentioned the
-90s too. I already posted mine, but you and I think alike. Scary. Maybe we are the "same person?" (according to Jmoney)


Bye Bye--General Lee

Ha! Is that a compliment?

UPS needs lift bigtime. They might spring for a 747 deal if the price is right. The current NWA pilots might not even be disappointed to get the 'opportunity' to wear brown.

 

[General Lee]

All in all, a DAL/UAL powerhouse would be the most dominant airline in the country. Star/SkyTeam issues may doom it, although the combined airline would likely have no problem getting full support from either (just not both).

Only you, Gordon Bethune (paid by Pardus Capital) and Pardus Capital believe what you are saying. United and Delta have way too much overlap. As far as NWA and DL overlap---MEM is a very small hub, with EAS type flying via Saabs at Mesaba. CVG and DTW are close, but CVG doesn't have the same amount of mainline traffic as DTW does. AA has a STL hub between ORD and DFW though, and it can be used for pax flow problems if one of the larger hubs has WX problems. CVG would be a question mark though. I think we have less than 50 mainline flights originating at CVG a day now---and Comair would be affected a lot more (today they announced 14 more CRJs being parked).

You don't think IAD and JFK being next to each other means one or a majority of one would go? How about DEN and SLC? How about CVG and ORD? How about both DL and UA having redundant flights at LAX to HNL, KOA, OGG, LIH, BOS, JFK, MCO, LAS, SLC, DEN, SEA, PDX, YVR, BOI, PHX, SFO, GUA, etc?

Also, we don't want the extra debt that United brings along. They did NOT do a very good job in BK, while both NWA and DL transformed themselves for the better. And you mention SkyTeam. Could there be a coincidence that Air France owns KLM, the partner of NWA in AMS, while AF is our partner in CDG? Do you think those guys talk at all? I would be very surprised if it were United we were talking about with Delta.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[3ds]

But, UPS is currently parking their older 747-200s and -100s. I don't think NWA would give up their 744s, but maybe. I can see them flying those from NRT to all of the big hubs--like ATL, MSP, DTW, JFK, and LAX.



Bye Bye--General Lee

Maybe they'd trade some future 777 frt models for current 744's today.

 

[grinder]

NWA + DAL would be approved if NWA divests share of CAL. That would in turn present other opportunities for consolidation. Probably down to 3 legacy type "majors" by next year.

 

[Furloughed80]

The "golden share" is automatically nullified if NWA merges with anyone.

 

[taildragger48]

If any of you think a merger, any merger, is good for the employees, I have bridge I'd like to show you in NY!

These mergers are driven by Wall Street bankers, Financiers, Accountants and Attorneys. The actual "benefits" of a merger such as improved route structures, synergies, and what have you, are window dressing the aforementioned parties use to sell the merger to politicians, employees and the travelling public.

The reality is that many employees can lose their jobs due to the synergies, many communities can end up losing air service and the public can look forward to more expensive travel.

Debate which combination is better all you like. In the end it doesn't mean a rats *ss. The only thing that will matter is how much money it will make for the deal makers and their hangers-on. And that money will likely come from 'savings' from employees gone and airplanes parked!

Just look at how well the AWA/USAirways merger has gone from the employee perspective!