Mesaba Airlines Poised for Massive Growth

[Butters]

I'll preface this by saying that press releases/sources to follow shortly. i.e "speculation" for now.


200 new hires before the end of 2008
500 new hires before the end of 2009

All new airplanes to be operated out of ATL. The new ATL base to be as large as the DTW base ASAP.
The New Premier Regional Carrier for the New Delta.

Why post this stuff? None of it is true, at least as of yet. Now you make all XJ pilots sound like self-serving d-bags, especially with the last sentance. (Yeah, yeah... and I already know someone is going to say "You guys already are self-serving d-bags..." Ha-ha.)

You obviously haven't learned from your time at XJ and working under NWA. It's just like playing "Kill of the Hill" on snow piles as a kid. The one on top laughing and cheering won't be there for long. Even if we grow, it will just be more for them to leverage against us come contract time.

Comair was growing right up until they furloughed. There is a lot of rumor right now and no facts as of yet. I don't care who your "source" is either. I know some at the training center are purposely leaking bad info just to keep the pilots guessing, so take any info with a huge grain of salt.

Nothing personal and I don't want to cap on you, but let's wait for official word to come out on anything before posting junk like this. And let's not forget our growth means someone else is losing jobs. That's nothing to brag about.

My prediction is that NOBODY at ANY regional associated with Delta is going to come out of this mess with a sweet taste in their mouth.

DING-DING-DING! We have a winner!

 

[DoinTime]

OPEC is cutting production right now based on demand. The oil companies right now are breaking even at 60.00/barrel.

Breaking even at $60/barrel? How did they ever do business at $15/barrel?

 

[Poahi]

Breaking even at $60/barrel? How did they ever do business at $15/barrel?

The economy has to be pretty bad when oil drops $3.19 per barrel and airline stocks get hammered. And all of this on top of OPEC CUTTING production. It's far from over yet.

 

[FastJP4]

The more 90 seat "regional" jets being flown for peanuts - the less mainline jobs to be had. You guys are rapidly turning yourself into lifetime regional pilots with regional pay. The spiral continues downward.

 

[General Lee]

Thanks for proving my point General. DC-9s will be pulled from MSP,MEM, and DTW to consolidate traffic in ATL. The 50-seaters will then be redistributed to the former NW hubs to fill in

Incorrect. We will be putting MD88s and new MD90s into MSP and they will hit both coasts from there, along with some short stuff to major cities. We will be moving planes around like crazy, with some A320/19s in SLC and CVG, and A330s in JFK and ATL. 767ERs will go to SEA to do Asia, and do some MSP and DTW flying too. Lot's of change, and parkings of RJs---50 seaters. MEM will likely see a large down gauge, along with some in CVG, although the latter is our highest yield hub. The CR9s and E175s may see more smaller city flying, like BIS and FAR, etc. Where do you think the SF3s are coming from to feed ATL? Not MSP and DTW I don't think....so will there be all CRJ-50s in MEM? Doesn't sound right to me....We'll see....


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Poahi]

The more 90 seat "regional" jets being flown for peanuts - the less mainline jobs to be had. You guys are rapidly turning yourself into lifetime regional pilots with regional pay. The spiral continues downward.

Who defines scope? I have never seen Delta execs talking to spikey haired regional pilots wearing ipods about what airplanes Delta pilots should fly. That logic holds the same truth as regional pilots being responsible for age 65.

 

[Erlanger]

I hear a rumor that Mesaba may have SLC and LAX bases in the next year. Anybody have info on that?

 

[flyboyzz1]

yeah the info is....its a rumor nothing more or less

 

[Crash Pad]

So what happens when they close MSP, CVG, MEM, SLC? We know hubs are going to close.

You covered oil and every other scenario why not the most obvious?

 

[profit]

Great posts by Tarzan and Butters..

Note to XJ pilots. Please tame the rhetoric. We are pilots like anyone else.

Re-growth is a relief for XJ after being f#$%ed in the a$$ for many, many years.

Unfortunately, airlinepilotcentral pay scales only show current specs. The post bankruptcy snapbacks amount to roughly 5$ per year raises for many of us. No doubt DAL/NWA will be looking to make another assault on the rates before too long.

Pilot cost is a small consideration of total cost in a system. The percentage of total is very small compared to things like fuel and equipment.

It is VERY true that the 50% personnel loss during the bankruptcy brought the pilot cost WAY down by reducing average longevity from roughly 6-8 years down to 2-4. Massive growth also keeps longevity cost down in relative terms.

NWA has always preferred their regionals to be entirely under their control. It also makes sense from a profit side to not have to negotiate with their regional with respect to contracts. And a wholly-owned also allows all revenue to go straight into the pocket of the major.

Note to junior XJ pilots. Consider your good fortune. (most actually do). Your arrival at a good time was mostly luck, when a ton of others are getting the shaft due to the screwed up nature of the industry.

 

[USCtrojan]

Trojan,
You generally make some informed posts. Once again, you do your homework before posting. I am buzzed from a couple too many rum and cokes so if I ramble or misspell.... Sorry.

The reason why Mesaba is in line for some growth is plain to see. After the BK forced new rates on them and they lost a great deal of pilots, their operating costs per hour dropped... Significantly. Going from seven year FO's and senior CA to CA with two years seniority equals a bunch. A less senior pilot group makes for cheaper costs per hour. Additionally, if DL can bring more planes to spread the cost across, they look even more attractive ecspecially when the money stays in DL's account (still earning interest).

Bottom line... More new planes, lower MX costs and more planes to spread the cost around. More NEW pilots, lower crew costs.

The ace in the hole for ASA and Skywest is that we have a shrewd bunch running the show in St George. They know how to make money and know what they need to do to save on costs. My bet is AS and SkyWest stay put in this game with DL.

Tarzan,

Thanks for the compliments, I believe the same about your posts as well. The biggest question I feel for ASA right now is operating costs. We need to stay fiercely competitive from an operational side to comply with the DCI Agreement and hold onto that 80%. I welcome the Mesaba pilots into ATL.

Hopefully over time the DCI Connection Carriers can come to a "meeting of the minds" and eradicate any "race to the bottom." Or in other words, no more whoring. ASA and Comair did it a few years ago with an RFP for 45 airplanes. Both Companies (ASA/Comair) wanted to freeze Contracts and/or instill slight paycuts to get growth. Both pilot groups told Delta to pound sand. The airplanes were issued regardless.

Good luck Mesaba. I welcome you into the ATL.

Trojan

 

[Speedtape]

I hear a rumor that Mesaba may have SLC and LAX bases in the next year. Anybody have info on that?

LAX is definite. That is where the growth will be in the near future.

SLC may be switched to a "focus city" and downsized. They will reallocate resources to the cities that will support international growth and LAX is that place.

 

[Speedtape]

So what happens when they close MSP, CVG, MEM, SLC? We know hubs are going to close.

You covered oil and every other scenario why not the most obvious?

MEM and CVG are going to be "focus cities" only. They will not be hubs.

MSP is safe because it has been proven that the metro area as well as the feed cities can support international growth. In addition, the demographics are very favorable.

ATL will grow, grow, and grow--because it is the center of the widget universe.

Hopefully, the concentration over the last few years in developing international markets will not turn around and bite them now that the European economy is falling on it's face.

 

[Blade Runner]

The more 90 seat "regional" jets being flown for peanuts - the less mainline jobs to be had. You guys are rapidly turning yourself into lifetime regional pilots with regional pay. The spiral continues downward.

We could argue many reasons for "lifetime regional pilots" as you describe them. Post 911 economy, ALPA sucks, the price of oil, labor being bent over the barrel by loose bankruptcy laws, ALAPA sucks, the war on terror, I think you get the picture. The fact remains that while pilots aged during these very turbulent times of furloughs and bankruptcies, children grew up, college tuition isn't cheap, houses where bought and sold and bought again, pilots tried there best to make due with what little they had, now they are approaching their 50's looking at projected seniority and their current household budgets and realize that starting over at a legacy carrier is simply financially unfeasable. So they find themselves stuck, the bottom line is the rules have changed. Playing this game some where lucky and could move on others not so lucky. Sadly, this is the current state of affairs and there is no turning back.

 

[MJ42]

LAX is definite. That is where the growth will be in the near future.

SLC may be switched to a "focus city" and downsized. They will reallocate resources to the cities that will support international growth and LAX is that place.

Where do you get this stuff?

You're wrong...http://www.ksl.com/index.php?nid=148&sid=4488770

SLC wants, and can support international (some)expansion.

 

[flyboyzz1]

LAX is definite. That is where the growth will be in the near future.

SLC may be switched to a "focus city" and downsized. They will reallocate resources to the cities that will support international growth and LAX is that place.

Definite? Why are they pulling mainline planes from there then?

 

[McNugent]

ATL will grow, grow, and grow--because it is the center of the widget universe.

OK someone explain this one to me, I tend to be a little slow at times. How can ATL grow grow grow while ASA shrinks? What's with the 80% deal? When does Skywest start taking Delta to task over not abiding by the contract?

It's no surprise to me that Delta plans to give Mesaba some more planes, but the way you guys are talking, they'll be the monster Delta regional carrier while the others wither away. I don't buy it!

To all you Mesaba guys, enjoy your seemingly good fortune while it lasts, and I'd be real careful about gloating. Delta likes to change things up a lot. Good news today could be taken away tomorrow.

 

[MJ42]

MEM and CVG are going to be "focus cities" only. They will not be hubs. Says who? Anything is possible, but you sound too sure of your statement. I doubt you know what will happen with MEM and CVG.

MSP is safe because it has been proven that the metro area as well as the feed cities can support international growth. In addition, the demographics are very favorable.

ATL will grow, grow, and grow--because it is the center of the widget universe. How much room, in your opinion, can DAL grow in ATL?Even when the new terminal opens, do you think ATL can support more arrivals and departures? Where do you think they can accommodate the extra aircraft arrivals and departures?

Hopefully, the concentration over the last few years in developing international markets will not turn around and bite them now that the European economy is falling on it's face.

Only time will tell, but the new DAL is well positioned, compared to other airlines.

 

[USCtrojan]

OK someone explain this one to me, I tend to be a little slow at times. How can ATL grow grow grow while ASA shrinks? What's with the 80% deal? When does Skywest start taking Delta to task over not abiding by the contract?

It's no surprise to me that Delta plans to give Mesaba some more planes, but the way you guys are talking, they'll be the monster Delta regional carrier while the others wither away. I don't buy it!

To all you Mesaba guys, enjoy your seemingly good fortune while it lasts, and I'd be real careful about gloating. Delta likes to change things up a lot. Good news today could be taken away tomorrow.

It can't Nuge. That's what happens when pilots start predicting the Market. 80% is a hardline DCI Contract, it can be void if performance or costs don't meet the agreement. I'm not sure when the costs aspect is up for negotiation (ASA has to be second cheapest). I've heard 2 years and if that's the case, ASA is spending money now to save money. (closing MCN, new GO, that includes classrooms, parking lot, etc.) That's not a coincidence. Right now we're not cheapest, but I believe under our leadership we'll get there. Additionally, ASA may or may not grow under Delta, but ASA will grow with another Carrier.

Trojan

 

[Tarzan]

It can't Nuge. That's what happens when pilots start predicting the Market. 80% is a hardline DCI Contract, it can be void if performance or costs don't meet the agreement. I'm not sure when the costs aspect is up for negotiation (ASA has to be second cheapest). I've heard 2 years and if that's the case, ASA is spending money now to save money. (closing MCN, new GO, that includes classrooms, parking lot, etc.) That's not a coincidence. Right now we're not cheapest, but I believe under our leadership we'll get there. Additionally, ASA may or may not grow under Delta, but ASA will grow with another Carrier.

Trojan

The company is taking some unusual steps to make it to that point. We do have two years to hit our mark. I believe we will make it too. With the numbers we've been putting up at the busiest airport in the world and the costs getting into line, I believe this company is well positioned for future possibilities.