Mesaba Airlines Poised for Massive Growth

[flyboyzz1]

I didn't say they were going to spike like they did. I said they will not be at $60 for that long...not long enough for the airlines to recover and start adding flights like they used to. Look at the trend of oil....it goes UP! It will continue to go up when countries like China and India continue to join the world powers. China and India weren't even a problem in the 70s. Face it, we are only going to have less and less oil in the future and the oil we will still have is much harder to harvest. Through in speculators and opec greed and you will see oil forced back on the positive trend.

It all comes to this...Airlines will continue to do everything they can to do away with 50 seat jets.

 

[xjhawk]

I am not going to shove it in others face as Mesaba grows and others shrink. But most of the time I have been at Mesaba its been tough. 7 year FO's not by choice, furloughs etc. Now we are growing and I am at least able to cover my bills, get a head on loans and take a real vacation once in a while. Guess what? i am happy for our growth, but mark my words, I am truely sorry for others who are suffering with layoffs. OUr industry and economy is in a bad place to put it lightly. That said, good luck to you all, I just know that its a rough road for all of us. The regional career-who would have thought

 

[Monster Buck]

Where do you guys get this stuff? 1/10 the number of 50-seaters? Pull your head out of your a**.

Oil is $64/barrel and back in the price range that makes 50-seaters very lucrative. Passenger bookings are poor from the recessed economy. Seems to me that 50-seaters are going to be the hot airplane in 2009.

I got it from my proby interviews where we talk about everything under the moon. In my last meeting with the flight manager..."I have the fleet numbers for next year" we went over movement projections... quote "this year we saw -200 reductions....09 we will see the death of the -200".

Take what you want from it. Call it bs, its up to you. The -200 and other 50 seat jets will come under mass reductions in 09 if they fly for Delta. Flight managment is where I got the BS as you put it. Hence counting your blessings on the all the 900's and saabs.
Go ask the other DCI carriers for Delta and they will tell you what I am talking about. I hope they find alternatives as I don't want to see anyone furloughed. I was at Mesaba for ten years and loved the airline and the people. I have nothing but the upmost respect for the regional pilots. Just because you don't like what I said doesn't mean its BS. Trust me on this.....I know I don't know everything thats going on.....I don't pretend to. Just like you don't know everything that is going on.

 

[xjhawk]

Not sure all will go, come on lets be real monster buck. I know that of the 9 total future delta connections, we will lose one or two. But take a hard look at how many 200 will be left in the 7 or 8 surviving regionals for Delta. You would be looking at massive reductions, I doubt they will take that many out of service. A lot yes, I agree. But not the total death.

 

[Tarzan]

All this according to Airline Pilot Central.com You decide how and why this growth is being assigned to Mesaba.

Trojan

Trojan,
You generally make some informed posts. Once again, you do your homework before posting. I am buzzed from a couple too many rum and cokes so if I ramble or misspell.... Sorry.

The reason why Mesaba is in line for some growth is plain to see. After the BK forced new rates on them and they lost a great deal of pilots, their operating costs per hour dropped... Significantly. Going from seven year FO's and senior CA to CA with two years seniority equals a bunch. A less senior pilot group makes for cheaper costs per hour. Additionally, if DL can bring more planes to spread the cost across, they look even more attractive ecspecially when the money stays in DL's account (still earning interest).

Bottom line... More new planes, lower MX costs and more planes to spread the cost around. More NEW pilots, lower crew costs.

The ace in the hole for ASA and Skywest is that we have a shrewd bunch running the show in St George. They know how to make money and know what they need to do to save on costs. My bet is AS and SkyWest stay put in this game with DL.

 

[Crizz]

Just hold on a sec..

It's amazing how a good little airline's name can be drug through the mud so quickly. People at this company have been through an aweful lot - do you forget that just 3 short years ago there were more airframes on property than there currently are today?

I think everyone forgets that big brother acquired us for pennies on the dollar while the company was reduced to it's "core business." We will be spun off and sold to high bidders (reference Express... err Pinnacle circa 2003). This spin off is predicated on actual value being added to the company - i.e. growth to the magnitude we're seeing.

To throw stones at a guy simply because he has a better lot in the industry in this time slice is childish. Lets not forget that many enjoying these "good times" have lived the bad times at this company since far before many throwing stones were even in the game...


And by the way.. pay rates have very little to do with actual compensation. In October I flew 53 hours. My credit was 122 hours. You can have your $104/hour, Mesa.

 

[outtahere]

Only one problem with this so called speculation. ASA is guarnteed 80% of ALL DCI flying out of ATL. So, maybe some growth for Mesaba, but eventually Delta is going to have to grow ASA to keep with the conractual promise made to ASA during the Skywest aquisition. Also, Skywest holds the leases to all of the Delta gates on C concourse, so if Delta starts doing funny math they can sublease those gates to Airtran!

 

[rightseatjocky]

LoL, Does it really matter? Mesaba, welcome to Atlanta. Welcome to the games of being vectored and holding for no reason. Delta plays every one against everyone here. LET THE GAMES BEGIN!!!

 

[PA44Jockey]

*****Looking at history you will find that oil prices (adjusted for the value of todays dollar) have only exceeded $60/barrel three time over the past 140 years. Once in the 1870s, once in the 1970-80s, and currently. To think that the spike in oil prices over this past summer are a long term indicator of future prices is just*****asinine. Relatively speaking even $60/barrel is*****extraordinary*****high.*****

OPEC is cutting production right now based on demand. The oil companies right now are breaking even at 60.00/barrel. You will see gas go back up, but it is unknown how far. Keep in mind that these airlines still have fuel hedges. I beileve Delta is still paying near 90.00/barrel with their hedges.

 

[Raskal]

Man, this thread is exhausting. I enjoy working for XJ, I got what I wanted by coming here and I enjoy the people I work with. But this combination of constant, unsubstantiated rumors and the "us against them" attitude of people is sometimes tiring.

If it weren't for a couple of days timing I would have taken a job here 4 years ago in a crj200 class-and I would have been on the street a month later. Remember that? Remember the huge rush to hire so many pilots for planes that XJ didn't have and never got?

I'm not saying that there won't be growth, but I've done nothing but hear 4 months worth of rumors now and you know what? Not one new aircraft. Lots of new hires, no new planes and no announcement that was supposed to be out like 14 fridays ago.

Believe it when they show up on the ramp, that's all.

 

[Butters]

I'll preface this by saying that press releases/sources to follow shortly. i.e "speculation" for now.


200 new hires before the end of 2008
500 new hires before the end of 2009

All new airplanes to be operated out of ATL. The new ATL base to be as large as the DTW base ASAP.
The New Premier Regional Carrier for the New Delta.

Why post this stuff? None of it is true, at least as of yet. Now you make all XJ pilots sound like self-serving d-bags, especially with the last sentance. (Yeah, yeah... and I already know someone is going to say "You guys already are self-serving d-bags..." Ha-ha.)

You obviously haven't learned from your time at XJ and working under NWA. It's just like playing "Kill of the Hill" on snow piles as a kid. The one on top laughing and cheering won't be there for long. Even if we grow, it will just be more for them to leverage against us come contract time.

Comair was growing right up until they furloughed. There is a lot of rumor right now and no facts as of yet. I don't care who your "source" is either. I know some at the training center are purposely leaking bad info just to keep the pilots guessing, so take any info with a huge grain of salt.

Nothing personal and I don't want to cap on you, but let's wait for official word to come out on anything before posting junk like this. And let's not forget our growth means someone else is losing jobs. That's nothing to brag about.

My prediction is that NOBODY at ANY regional associated with Delta is going to come out of this mess with a sweet taste in their mouth.

DING-DING-DING! We have a winner!

 

[DoinTime]

OPEC is cutting production right now based on demand. The oil companies right now are breaking even at 60.00/barrel.

Breaking even at $60/barrel? How did they ever do business at $15/barrel?

 

[Poahi]

Breaking even at $60/barrel? How did they ever do business at $15/barrel?

The economy has to be pretty bad when oil drops $3.19 per barrel and airline stocks get hammered. And all of this on top of OPEC CUTTING production. It's far from over yet.

 

[FastJP4]

The more 90 seat "regional" jets being flown for peanuts - the less mainline jobs to be had. You guys are rapidly turning yourself into lifetime regional pilots with regional pay. The spiral continues downward.

 

[General Lee]

Thanks for proving my point General. DC-9s will be pulled from MSP,MEM, and DTW to consolidate traffic in ATL. The 50-seaters will then be redistributed to the former NW hubs to fill in

Incorrect. We will be putting MD88s and new MD90s into MSP and they will hit both coasts from there, along with some short stuff to major cities. We will be moving planes around like crazy, with some A320/19s in SLC and CVG, and A330s in JFK and ATL. 767ERs will go to SEA to do Asia, and do some MSP and DTW flying too. Lot's of change, and parkings of RJs---50 seaters. MEM will likely see a large down gauge, along with some in CVG, although the latter is our highest yield hub. The CR9s and E175s may see more smaller city flying, like BIS and FAR, etc. Where do you think the SF3s are coming from to feed ATL? Not MSP and DTW I don't think....so will there be all CRJ-50s in MEM? Doesn't sound right to me....We'll see....


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Poahi]

The more 90 seat "regional" jets being flown for peanuts - the less mainline jobs to be had. You guys are rapidly turning yourself into lifetime regional pilots with regional pay. The spiral continues downward.

Who defines scope? I have never seen Delta execs talking to spikey haired regional pilots wearing ipods about what airplanes Delta pilots should fly. That logic holds the same truth as regional pilots being responsible for age 65.

 

[Erlanger]

I hear a rumor that Mesaba may have SLC and LAX bases in the next year. Anybody have info on that?

 

[flyboyzz1]

yeah the info is....its a rumor nothing more or less

 

[Crash Pad]

So what happens when they close MSP, CVG, MEM, SLC? We know hubs are going to close.

You covered oil and every other scenario why not the most obvious?

 

[profit]

Great posts by Tarzan and Butters..

Note to XJ pilots. Please tame the rhetoric. We are pilots like anyone else.

Re-growth is a relief for XJ after being f#$%ed in the a$$ for many, many years.

Unfortunately, airlinepilotcentral pay scales only show current specs. The post bankruptcy snapbacks amount to roughly 5$ per year raises for many of us. No doubt DAL/NWA will be looking to make another assault on the rates before too long.

Pilot cost is a small consideration of total cost in a system. The percentage of total is very small compared to things like fuel and equipment.

It is VERY true that the 50% personnel loss during the bankruptcy brought the pilot cost WAY down by reducing average longevity from roughly 6-8 years down to 2-4. Massive growth also keeps longevity cost down in relative terms.

NWA has always preferred their regionals to be entirely under their control. It also makes sense from a profit side to not have to negotiate with their regional with respect to contracts. And a wholly-owned also allows all revenue to go straight into the pocket of the major.

Note to junior XJ pilots. Consider your good fortune. (most actually do). Your arrival at a good time was mostly luck, when a ton of others are getting the shaft due to the screwed up nature of the industry.

 

[USCtrojan]

Trojan,
You generally make some informed posts. Once again, you do your homework before posting. I am buzzed from a couple too many rum and cokes so if I ramble or misspell.... Sorry.

The reason why Mesaba is in line for some growth is plain to see. After the BK forced new rates on them and they lost a great deal of pilots, their operating costs per hour dropped... Significantly. Going from seven year FO's and senior CA to CA with two years seniority equals a bunch. A less senior pilot group makes for cheaper costs per hour. Additionally, if DL can bring more planes to spread the cost across, they look even more attractive ecspecially when the money stays in DL's account (still earning interest).

Bottom line... More new planes, lower MX costs and more planes to spread the cost around. More NEW pilots, lower crew costs.

The ace in the hole for ASA and Skywest is that we have a shrewd bunch running the show in St George. They know how to make money and know what they need to do to save on costs. My bet is AS and SkyWest stay put in this game with DL.

Tarzan,

Thanks for the compliments, I believe the same about your posts as well. The biggest question I feel for ASA right now is operating costs. We need to stay fiercely competitive from an operational side to comply with the DCI Agreement and hold onto that 80%. I welcome the Mesaba pilots into ATL.

Hopefully over time the DCI Connection Carriers can come to a "meeting of the minds" and eradicate any "race to the bottom." Or in other words, no more whoring. ASA and Comair did it a few years ago with an RFP for 45 airplanes. Both Companies (ASA/Comair) wanted to freeze Contracts and/or instill slight paycuts to get growth. Both pilot groups told Delta to pound sand. The airplanes were issued regardless.

Good luck Mesaba. I welcome you into the ATL.

Trojan

 

[Speedtape]

I hear a rumor that Mesaba may have SLC and LAX bases in the next year. Anybody have info on that?

LAX is definite. That is where the growth will be in the near future.

SLC may be switched to a "focus city" and downsized. They will reallocate resources to the cities that will support international growth and LAX is that place.

 

[Speedtape]

So what happens when they close MSP, CVG, MEM, SLC? We know hubs are going to close.

You covered oil and every other scenario why not the most obvious?

MEM and CVG are going to be "focus cities" only. They will not be hubs.

MSP is safe because it has been proven that the metro area as well as the feed cities can support international growth. In addition, the demographics are very favorable.

ATL will grow, grow, and grow--because it is the center of the widget universe.

Hopefully, the concentration over the last few years in developing international markets will not turn around and bite them now that the European economy is falling on it's face.

 

[Blade Runner]

The more 90 seat "regional" jets being flown for peanuts - the less mainline jobs to be had. You guys are rapidly turning yourself into lifetime regional pilots with regional pay. The spiral continues downward.

We could argue many reasons for "lifetime regional pilots" as you describe them. Post 911 economy, ALPA sucks, the price of oil, labor being bent over the barrel by loose bankruptcy laws, ALAPA sucks, the war on terror, I think you get the picture. The fact remains that while pilots aged during these very turbulent times of furloughs and bankruptcies, children grew up, college tuition isn't cheap, houses where bought and sold and bought again, pilots tried there best to make due with what little they had, now they are approaching their 50's looking at projected seniority and their current household budgets and realize that starting over at a legacy carrier is simply financially unfeasable. So they find themselves stuck, the bottom line is the rules have changed. Playing this game some where lucky and could move on others not so lucky. Sadly, this is the current state of affairs and there is no turning back.

 

[MJ42]

LAX is definite. That is where the growth will be in the near future.

SLC may be switched to a "focus city" and downsized. They will reallocate resources to the cities that will support international growth and LAX is that place.

Where do you get this stuff?

You're wrong...http://www.ksl.com/index.php?nid=148&sid=4488770

SLC wants, and can support international (some)expansion.

 

[flyboyzz1]

LAX is definite. That is where the growth will be in the near future.

SLC may be switched to a "focus city" and downsized. They will reallocate resources to the cities that will support international growth and LAX is that place.

Definite? Why are they pulling mainline planes from there then?

 

[McNugent]

ATL will grow, grow, and grow--because it is the center of the widget universe.

OK someone explain this one to me, I tend to be a little slow at times. How can ATL grow grow grow while ASA shrinks? What's with the 80% deal? When does Skywest start taking Delta to task over not abiding by the contract?

It's no surprise to me that Delta plans to give Mesaba some more planes, but the way you guys are talking, they'll be the monster Delta regional carrier while the others wither away. I don't buy it!

To all you Mesaba guys, enjoy your seemingly good fortune while it lasts, and I'd be real careful about gloating. Delta likes to change things up a lot. Good news today could be taken away tomorrow.

 

[MJ42]

MEM and CVG are going to be "focus cities" only. They will not be hubs. Says who? Anything is possible, but you sound too sure of your statement. I doubt you know what will happen with MEM and CVG.

MSP is safe because it has been proven that the metro area as well as the feed cities can support international growth. In addition, the demographics are very favorable.

ATL will grow, grow, and grow--because it is the center of the widget universe. How much room, in your opinion, can DAL grow in ATL?Even when the new terminal opens, do you think ATL can support more arrivals and departures? Where do you think they can accommodate the extra aircraft arrivals and departures?

Hopefully, the concentration over the last few years in developing international markets will not turn around and bite them now that the European economy is falling on it's face.

Only time will tell, but the new DAL is well positioned, compared to other airlines.

 

[USCtrojan]

OK someone explain this one to me, I tend to be a little slow at times. How can ATL grow grow grow while ASA shrinks? What's with the 80% deal? When does Skywest start taking Delta to task over not abiding by the contract?

It's no surprise to me that Delta plans to give Mesaba some more planes, but the way you guys are talking, they'll be the monster Delta regional carrier while the others wither away. I don't buy it!

To all you Mesaba guys, enjoy your seemingly good fortune while it lasts, and I'd be real careful about gloating. Delta likes to change things up a lot. Good news today could be taken away tomorrow.

It can't Nuge. That's what happens when pilots start predicting the Market. 80% is a hardline DCI Contract, it can be void if performance or costs don't meet the agreement. I'm not sure when the costs aspect is up for negotiation (ASA has to be second cheapest). I've heard 2 years and if that's the case, ASA is spending money now to save money. (closing MCN, new GO, that includes classrooms, parking lot, etc.) That's not a coincidence. Right now we're not cheapest, but I believe under our leadership we'll get there. Additionally, ASA may or may not grow under Delta, but ASA will grow with another Carrier.

Trojan

 

[Tarzan]

It can't Nuge. That's what happens when pilots start predicting the Market. 80% is a hardline DCI Contract, it can be void if performance or costs don't meet the agreement. I'm not sure when the costs aspect is up for negotiation (ASA has to be second cheapest). I've heard 2 years and if that's the case, ASA is spending money now to save money. (closing MCN, new GO, that includes classrooms, parking lot, etc.) That's not a coincidence. Right now we're not cheapest, but I believe under our leadership we'll get there. Additionally, ASA may or may not grow under Delta, but ASA will grow with another Carrier.

Trojan

The company is taking some unusual steps to make it to that point. We do have two years to hit our mark. I believe we will make it too. With the numbers we've been putting up at the busiest airport in the world and the costs getting into line, I believe this company is well positioned for future possibilities.