Mesaba Airlines Poised for Massive Growth

[USCtrojan]

Trojan,
You generally make some informed posts. Once again, you do your homework before posting. I am buzzed from a couple too many rum and cokes so if I ramble or misspell.... Sorry.

The reason why Mesaba is in line for some growth is plain to see. After the BK forced new rates on them and they lost a great deal of pilots, their operating costs per hour dropped... Significantly. Going from seven year FO's and senior CA to CA with two years seniority equals a bunch. A less senior pilot group makes for cheaper costs per hour. Additionally, if DL can bring more planes to spread the cost across, they look even more attractive ecspecially when the money stays in DL's account (still earning interest).

Bottom line... More new planes, lower MX costs and more planes to spread the cost around. More NEW pilots, lower crew costs.

The ace in the hole for ASA and Skywest is that we have a shrewd bunch running the show in St George. They know how to make money and know what they need to do to save on costs. My bet is AS and SkyWest stay put in this game with DL.

Tarzan,

Thanks for the compliments, I believe the same about your posts as well. The biggest question I feel for ASA right now is operating costs. We need to stay fiercely competitive from an operational side to comply with the DCI Agreement and hold onto that 80%. I welcome the Mesaba pilots into ATL.

Hopefully over time the DCI Connection Carriers can come to a "meeting of the minds" and eradicate any "race to the bottom." Or in other words, no more whoring. ASA and Comair did it a few years ago with an RFP for 45 airplanes. Both Companies (ASA/Comair) wanted to freeze Contracts and/or instill slight paycuts to get growth. Both pilot groups told Delta to pound sand. The airplanes were issued regardless.

Good luck Mesaba. I welcome you into the ATL.

Trojan

 

[Speedtape]

I hear a rumor that Mesaba may have SLC and LAX bases in the next year. Anybody have info on that?

LAX is definite. That is where the growth will be in the near future.

SLC may be switched to a "focus city" and downsized. They will reallocate resources to the cities that will support international growth and LAX is that place.

 

[Speedtape]

So what happens when they close MSP, CVG, MEM, SLC? We know hubs are going to close.

You covered oil and every other scenario why not the most obvious?

MEM and CVG are going to be "focus cities" only. They will not be hubs.

MSP is safe because it has been proven that the metro area as well as the feed cities can support international growth. In addition, the demographics are very favorable.

ATL will grow, grow, and grow--because it is the center of the widget universe.

Hopefully, the concentration over the last few years in developing international markets will not turn around and bite them now that the European economy is falling on it's face.

 

[Blade Runner]

The more 90 seat "regional" jets being flown for peanuts - the less mainline jobs to be had. You guys are rapidly turning yourself into lifetime regional pilots with regional pay. The spiral continues downward.

We could argue many reasons for "lifetime regional pilots" as you describe them. Post 911 economy, ALPA sucks, the price of oil, labor being bent over the barrel by loose bankruptcy laws, ALAPA sucks, the war on terror, I think you get the picture. The fact remains that while pilots aged during these very turbulent times of furloughs and bankruptcies, children grew up, college tuition isn't cheap, houses where bought and sold and bought again, pilots tried there best to make due with what little they had, now they are approaching their 50's looking at projected seniority and their current household budgets and realize that starting over at a legacy carrier is simply financially unfeasable. So they find themselves stuck, the bottom line is the rules have changed. Playing this game some where lucky and could move on others not so lucky. Sadly, this is the current state of affairs and there is no turning back.

 

[MJ42]

LAX is definite. That is where the growth will be in the near future.

SLC may be switched to a "focus city" and downsized. They will reallocate resources to the cities that will support international growth and LAX is that place.

Where do you get this stuff?

You're wrong...http://www.ksl.com/index.php?nid=148&sid=4488770

SLC wants, and can support international (some)expansion.

 

[flyboyzz1]

LAX is definite. That is where the growth will be in the near future.

SLC may be switched to a "focus city" and downsized. They will reallocate resources to the cities that will support international growth and LAX is that place.

Definite? Why are they pulling mainline planes from there then?

 

[McNugent]

ATL will grow, grow, and grow--because it is the center of the widget universe.

OK someone explain this one to me, I tend to be a little slow at times. How can ATL grow grow grow while ASA shrinks? What's with the 80% deal? When does Skywest start taking Delta to task over not abiding by the contract?

It's no surprise to me that Delta plans to give Mesaba some more planes, but the way you guys are talking, they'll be the monster Delta regional carrier while the others wither away. I don't buy it!

To all you Mesaba guys, enjoy your seemingly good fortune while it lasts, and I'd be real careful about gloating. Delta likes to change things up a lot. Good news today could be taken away tomorrow.

 

[MJ42]

MEM and CVG are going to be "focus cities" only. They will not be hubs. Says who? Anything is possible, but you sound too sure of your statement. I doubt you know what will happen with MEM and CVG.

MSP is safe because it has been proven that the metro area as well as the feed cities can support international growth. In addition, the demographics are very favorable.

ATL will grow, grow, and grow--because it is the center of the widget universe. How much room, in your opinion, can DAL grow in ATL?Even when the new terminal opens, do you think ATL can support more arrivals and departures? Where do you think they can accommodate the extra aircraft arrivals and departures?

Hopefully, the concentration over the last few years in developing international markets will not turn around and bite them now that the European economy is falling on it's face.

Only time will tell, but the new DAL is well positioned, compared to other airlines.

 

[USCtrojan]

OK someone explain this one to me, I tend to be a little slow at times. How can ATL grow grow grow while ASA shrinks? What's with the 80% deal? When does Skywest start taking Delta to task over not abiding by the contract?

It's no surprise to me that Delta plans to give Mesaba some more planes, but the way you guys are talking, they'll be the monster Delta regional carrier while the others wither away. I don't buy it!

To all you Mesaba guys, enjoy your seemingly good fortune while it lasts, and I'd be real careful about gloating. Delta likes to change things up a lot. Good news today could be taken away tomorrow.

It can't Nuge. That's what happens when pilots start predicting the Market. 80% is a hardline DCI Contract, it can be void if performance or costs don't meet the agreement. I'm not sure when the costs aspect is up for negotiation (ASA has to be second cheapest). I've heard 2 years and if that's the case, ASA is spending money now to save money. (closing MCN, new GO, that includes classrooms, parking lot, etc.) That's not a coincidence. Right now we're not cheapest, but I believe under our leadership we'll get there. Additionally, ASA may or may not grow under Delta, but ASA will grow with another Carrier.

Trojan

 

[Tarzan]

It can't Nuge. That's what happens when pilots start predicting the Market. 80% is a hardline DCI Contract, it can be void if performance or costs don't meet the agreement. I'm not sure when the costs aspect is up for negotiation (ASA has to be second cheapest). I've heard 2 years and if that's the case, ASA is spending money now to save money. (closing MCN, new GO, that includes classrooms, parking lot, etc.) That's not a coincidence. Right now we're not cheapest, but I believe under our leadership we'll get there. Additionally, ASA may or may not grow under Delta, but ASA will grow with another Carrier.

Trojan

The company is taking some unusual steps to make it to that point. We do have two years to hit our mark. I believe we will make it too. With the numbers we've been putting up at the busiest airport in the world and the costs getting into line, I believe this company is well positioned for future possibilities.