Mesa

[General Lee]

I wouldn't disagree with those numbers, but I don't think there will be a surplus of pilots for those seats.

New rules have made it tougher to be an airline pilot, now 1500 hours, unless you go to Riddle or UND, where it is very expensive. The Military is churning out fewer pilots, and more drone drivers. The World is short on pilots, not enough in Asia, A320s are being parked for lack of crews. Throw in 15,000 retirements at the big 3 US carriers, and then a few more thousand for the rest of the US LCCs and Cargo carriers, and I think there will be options for almost everyone who wants a shot at something better than a shrinking Regional.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Mercyful Fate]

New rules have made it tougher to be an airline pilot, now 1500 hours, unless you go to Riddle or UND, where it is very expensive. The Military is churning out fewer pilots, and more drone drivers. The World is short on pilots, not enough in Asia, A320s are being parked for lack of crews. Throw in 15,000 retirements at the big 3 US carriers, and then a few more thousand for the rest of the US LCCs and Cargo carriers, and I think there will be options for almost everyone who wants a shot at something better than a shrinking Regional.



Bye Bye---General Lee

Blah blah blah, same ol garbage over and over and over...go outside and get some fresh air.

 

[General Lee]

Blah blah blah, same ol garbage over and over and over...go outside and get some fresh air.

Mercy, you still can't add anything of substance. That......is too bad. Not unexpected, but too bad.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[sinkrate]

Uhhhhh 15,000 retirements scheduled within the next decade for the big 3 legacies alone. Then throw in all of the other airlines like the LCCs. Nope, not a myth, a mathematical certainty.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Canada is the latest country to adopt the ICAO Multi Crew Pilot License. It will happen here eventually. This alone is not a game changer but check your assumptions. The industry is going to go through some gut wrenching fundamental changes in the next ten years. Some of those changes are predictable - some are not. A pilot shortage at the 'big three' is probably not one of them.

 

[Jon Rivoli]

At the first sign of a real pilot shortage mandatory retirement will go away completely. Pass your medical and your PC and keep on flying.

Then the Bernanke bubble busts and all the legacies file Ch. 11 again.

Then an asteroid hits or a solar storm knocks out global electrical grids and the zombies attack.

You just never know.

A pilot hired at SkyWest in 2001 when compared to a pilot hired at United on the same day earned several hundred thousand more over the last decade than the United pilot who was furloughed twice.

To have suggested that SkyWest would be the better financial move in 2001 would have had you locked in the looney bin.

Good luck!

 

[CLARKGRSWOLD]

True-

The airline career is defn a Marathon.. Sometimes not doing anything is the best career move..

 

[SkyNation]

at the first sign of a real pilot shortage mandatory retirement will go away completely. Pass your medical and your pc and keep on flying.

Then the bernanke bubble busts and all the legacies file ch. 11 again.

Then an asteroid hits or a solar storm knocks out global electrical grids and the zombies attack.

You just never know.

A pilot hired at skywest in 2001 when compared to a pilot hired at united on the same day earned several hundred thousand more over the last decade than the united pilot who was furloughed twice.

To have suggested that skywest would be the better financial move in 2001 would have had you locked in the looney bin.

Good luck!

^^^^^church!!!

 

[wms]

Since the majors have been making lots of money and have been sharing the wealth with employees, expanding ammenities and paying vendors more, it seems strange they haven't shared the wealth with the regionals but are continuing the downward pressure on them. I wonder why?

Maybe to expedite the thinning of the herd, or drive value of the regionals down to buy them cheap later, or an attritional way to get rid of 50-seaters. Nonetheless, the regionals that survive will have pricing power eventually, but not very soon unless failures happen quickly.

 

[General Lee]

At the first sign of a real pilot shortage mandatory retirement will go away completely. Pass your medical and your PC and keep on flying.

Then the Bernanke bubble busts and all the legacies file Ch. 11 again.

Then an asteroid hits or a solar storm knocks out global electrical grids and the zombies attack.

You just never know.

A pilot hired at SkyWest in 2001 when compared to a pilot hired at United on the same day earned several hundred thousand more over the last decade than the United pilot who was furloughed twice.

To have suggested that SkyWest would be the better financial move in 2001 would have had you locked in the looney bin.

Good luck!

Incorrect. First off, any major changes will be fought by the Families of the victims of the Colgan crash. They have been very powerful in creating the new fatigue and hiring rules, and anyone in Congress going against them are committing political suicide. They went up against the very powerful Regional Airline association and won. The victim's families beat the powerful lobbyists.

As far as what happened in Canada, their new law states age 70, but at 65 a pilot cannot sit in the left seat. They have to go to a narrowbody right seat or be a cruise officer (no takeoff or landings) on a Widebody. This was told to me by the Air Canada Montreal Capt rep himself. He said not many senior guys there will take that deal. It preserves upgrades, but slows down hiring. Do you have any idea how that would be handled inside a legacy? Who would figure that out?

Nah, the Regionals will shrink and mainlines will fly smaller mainline jets (717s and 319s) to cities that have seen more frequency with RJs, that will be leaving due to lack of crews. Instead of 5 daily RJ flights, mainline will return with 2-3 717s or A319s.

Throw out your apps people. Go for a legacy or big cargo first, then LCC. Good luck.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

True-

The airline career is defn a Marathon.. Sometimes not doing anything is the best career move..

What??? Or, you can see the signs and act on them. I know a guy who turned down the flow up at Delta from Mesaba a few years ago. No interview, Medical, or psych exam, just a class date. He was in his early 40s with a few kids and made a pretty good wage. Then, Messaba merged with PNCL and Colgan, and then went BK and got large pay cuts. Not a good move. Getting on early in a huge hiring wave is everything. Better QOL sooner, more variety in planes which can affect salary in a good way, etc.

Hanging out and not doing anything may NOT be a good idea this time. Read the signs, listen to the CEOs, look at the lack of pilots coming in behind, and look at the new fatigue and hiring rules. Gas prices are still too high for 50 seaters, and they won't all be replaced by 76 seaters. Good luck.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Jon Rivoli]

Incorrect. First off, any major changes will be fought by the Families of the victims of the Colgan crash. They have been very powerful in creating the new fatigue and hiring rules, and anyone in Congress going against them are committing political suicide. They went up against the very powerful Regional Airline association and won. The victim's families beat the powerful lobbyists.

As far as what happened in Canada, their new law states age 70, but at 65 a pilot cannot sit in the left seat. They have to go to a narrowbody right seat or be a cruise officer (no takeoff or landings) on a Widebody. This was told to me by the Air Canada Montreal Capt rep himself. He said not many senior guys there will take that deal. It preserves upgrades, but slows down hiring. Do you have any idea how that would be handled inside a legacy? Who would figure that out?

Nah, the Regionals will shrink and mainlines will fly smaller mainline jets (717s and 319s) to cities that have seen more frequency with RJs, that will be leaving due to lack of crews. Instead of 5 daily RJ flights, mainline will return with 2-3 717s or A319s.

Throw out your apps people. Go for a legacy or big cargo first, then LCC. Good luck.



Bye Bye---General Lee

Looking forward to the day that you are pulling gear for me in my shiny new 150 seat RJ after Delta folds. You can tell me all about how you were downgraded to the night shift at the refinery before you were finally let go and how you had just finished your Captain IOE on the 717 and your only flight in the left seat was to ferry the last one to the desert to be scrapped.

I'll buy the beer.

I once met a former TWA 767 Captain, he was at the time a furloughed American pilot. He had flown Metros at SkyWest in the 80's, had he stayed he would be in the top 20 or so flying turns, home every night making $150k.

Pan Am is the greatest airline in the world..... or was, back when Delta, United and American were Domestic carriers.

Cheers

 

[Gr82Aviate]

Looking forward to the day that you are pulling gear for me in my shiny new 150 seat RJ after Delta folds. You can tell me all about how you were downgraded to the night shift at the refinery before you were finally let go and how you had just finished your Captain IOE on the 717 and your only flight in the left seat was to ferry the last one to the desert to be scrapped.

I'll buy the beer.

I once met a former TWA 767 Captain, he was at the time a furloughed American pilot. He had flown Metros at SkyWest in the 80's, had he stayed he would be in the top 20 or so flying turns, home every night making $150k.

Pan Am is the greatest airline in the world..... or was, back when Delta, United and American were Domestic carriers.

Cheers

Jon, I'd be the last person to defend Gerbil Lee's diatribe, but $150k? How do you come up that, seems a bit of a stretch...

 

[Jon Rivoli]

Jon, I'd be the last person to defend Gerbil Lee's diatribe, but $150k? How do you come up that, seems a bit of a stretch...

I did $130 last year on 14th year pay, 975 block. You have to work to make money.

High paying locals on the 900 or stand ups. I know a guy in Chicago who credits 160/ mo. doing stand ups, at least he did before 117.

Sim instructors doing doubles do pretty well.

 

[General Lee]

Looking forward to the day that you are pulling gear for me in my shiny new 150 seat RJ after Delta folds. You can tell me all about how you were downgraded to the night shift at the refinery before you were finally let go and how you had just finished your Captain IOE on the 717 and your only flight in the left seat was to ferry the last one to the desert to be scrapped.

I'll buy the beer.

I once met a former TWA 767 Captain, he was at the time a furloughed American pilot. He had flown Metros at SkyWest in the 80's, had he stayed he would be in the top 20 or so flying turns, home every night making $150k.

Pan Am is the greatest airline in the world..... or was, back when Delta, United and American were Domestic carriers.

Cheers

Oh Jon...... Consolidation has cured the "Pan Am and TWA" days. I will never be your FO, but you may be working for my airline. If I see you on the ramp, I'll make sure I throw you a small Dasani bottle, you look thirsty.

For the rest of you, make the jump and don't listen to the lifers like Jon who don't want to start over and will feed you BS so they have someone junior to them, until they themselves become junior. Look at the facts, 50 seaters leaving, new hiring rules, mainlines recapturing routes. Bye Jon!



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

I did $130 last year on 14th year pay, 975 block. You have to work to make money.

High paying locals on the 900 or stand ups. I know a guy in Chicago who credits 160/ mo. doing stand ups, at least he did before 117.

Sim instructors doing doubles do pretty well.

That's great Jon. We had a senior A320 FO in ATL make $287K last year via greenslips. That's an FO, and the retirements fund (DC fund) adds 15% of whatever you make in a month to a Fidelity fund, and you don't have to contribute a dime.

Look, your compensation packages are getting smaller, things are getting tighter, planes will be parked, and that's not good for your group. People will start to bail quickly until you are the last one there Jon.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Mercyful Fate]

Oh Jon...... Consolidation has cured the "Pan Am and TWA" days. I will never be your FO, but you may be working for my airline. If I see you on the ramp, I'll make sure I throw you a small Dasani bottle, you look thirsty.

For the rest of you, make the jump and don't listen to the lifers like Jon who don't want to start over and will feed you BS so they have someone junior to them, until they themselves become junior. Look at the facts, 50 seaters leaving, new hiring rules, mainlines recapturing routes. Bye Jon!



Bye Bye---General Lee

I believe you will never be Jon's FO...you have to be a pilot first before you can become an FO. Which you are not. Bye Genital!

 

[Jon Rivoli]

That's great Jon. We had a senior A320 FO in ATL make $287K last year via greenslips. That's an FO, and the retirements fund (DC fund) adds 15% of whatever you make in a month to a Fidelity fund, and you don't have to contribute a dime.

Look, your compensation packages are getting smaller, things are getting tighter, planes will be parked, and that's not good for your group. People will start to bail quickly until you are the last one there Jon.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Yeah, and two thirds of it goes to his ex wife in child support and alimony. I fly six hour duty days and am home every night.

Please, get the walk around done before you get comfortable up front. I really do hate it when you find a problem after we are all boarded.

Bye bye!!!

 

[amcnd]

Jon, I'd be the last person to defend Gerbil Lee's diatribe, but $150k? How do you come up that, seems a bit of a stretch...

Not at SkyWest. If he was in the top 20 and wants to work $120K is easy.. Sim guys are well north of $150...

 

[SpauldingSmails]

Pan Am is the greatest airline in the world..... or was, back when Delta, United and American were Domestic carriers.
Cheers

I'll never forget the Mesaba F/O who told me something to the effect, "I'm glad I'm not in your shoes... you'll be flushed in no time" when I started at Compass six years ago.

Yep, I suppose we all know what's best until... well, until we don't.

Prescience and imprudence are only divided by outcomes (and a bit of luck) in this business.

 

[chqflyer]

.



I once met a former TWA 767 Captain, he was at the time a furloughed American pilot. He had flown Metros at SkyWest in the 80's, had he stayed he would be in the top 20 or so flying turns, home every night making $150k.





Cheers

Just before TWA went away, I had a gentleman in my jumpseat out of STL. He went from a 767 CA to reserve Mad Dog FO during the whole AMR mess. I don't recall a lot of the details, but that was the moment I realized what a fricken cruel and ********************ed up industry this is. So much of your career is dependent on dumb luck.