Majors Dead?

[FR8mastr]

This would help because of the outsourcing that all the majors are experiencing. Contrary to what what some ML pilots think, the WO'ed pilots are not taking the flying. The people that are taking the flying are the multitude of other carriers begging to be the lowest paid pilots so they might continue to have a job. They have the RJ's and the extrememly low pay that enable the majors replace their own flying with the contract carriers. If the scope language was changed from, allowing all flying to be outsourced as long as it meets some arbitrary size or engine type thing. to all flying done by company x will be done by conpany X employees this would no longer be permitted. It should not matter if you are in the 152 super commuter or the new 777 world hauler, if the companies logo is on it you work for them. A new pilot would go into the 152 and work up as seniority would allow. The bottom line is the majors would not be losing all their short haul flying to anyone with a jet. All the flying would still be theirs. This would also allow MGMT to right size the equipement for the route without giving your job to Joes airline.

 

[Publishers]

no

This argument holds no water. First of all, this is a business and the business issues are at the heart of the problem, not pilot issues. In the big picture of things, the pilots are not a blip on the radar screen of the problems besetting major carriers or full service or whatever you desire to call them.

You dealt with your perceived problem and did nothing for the problems that the companies face. You have failed to deal with the customer, you dealt with the outsourcing that really does not benefit the airlines except reduce their direct expense risk.

 

[FR8mastr]

I think you missed my point, the Greed of the corporate raiders (mgmt) with their stock options and bonuses. They are under constant pressure to produce money for the stockholders, long term survival with few exceptions doesnt even enter into the picture. How many boses has US Air had in the last 15 years? These people will outsource the entire company if they could get around the pilots contracts. The origonal question was, Will the Majors survive? at our current pace I would doubt it. The airline will just be a franchise that anyone with an airplane can buy into, paint the logo on the tail and off to the races. Between that and the multitude of low cost operators I base my opinion.

 

[Publishers]

short term

You are right in that United States business management has always been more attentive and more rewarded for short term thinking and results.

That said, you must realize that the shareholders are the company. Their demands for performance and quickly is exactly what causes managment to act the way they do. If shareholders all actually took the long term approach they talk about maybe this would be mute.

Again I say, what does what you suggest have to do with correcting that which is the real problem. There will always be majors, if the definition is simply the largest. Are we likely to go back to the 60's view of majors, no. Is SWA an example of the new majors, yes. Can the current so called majors continue like they have, no.

Is outsourcing a solution, no, unless of course your costs are out of control.

The fact is that those who are there want to stay at that level. They do not care if the business has changed as long as it does not effect them and their way of life. For them, big news is a comin.

 

[Draginass]

The industry could change alright, and the public isn't going to like what it turns into one bit.

1. The national airline transportation system cannot adjust to such wild swings in demand as has been experienced in the last couple years. It's obvious that G.W. and the "gubment" doesn't give a s**t.
2. When the economy recovers and demand increases, the significantly reduced capacity will result in grossly increased ticket prices, like has not been seen before.
3. Airlines will start packing in the seats like a cheap European charter operator.
4. Airplanes will be packed.
5. Many smaller cities will no longer get service.
6. Air travel will deteriorate even deeper into "bus travel" ambiance.
7. Employee attitudes will suffer as a result of grossly cut compensation.

If you think it's ugly for airline employees now, see what's it's like for customers in a couple of years.

 

[Publishers]

OK

Draginass points to what most people already feel happened. We are already at the bus travel level and I don't mean at the LCC's either. Packed aircraft and no leg room, we have achieved that.

Small cities losing service, we are already there. A public that thinks we do not give a rat's but, we already have that as well.

What I am not sure of though is that the transportation service cannot keep up with the swings. More like the employees do not want to have to keep up. There seems to be some type of entitlement that exists that prevents those from wanting to have to move with it.

 

[100LL... Again!]

Draginass-

I realize that it is very hip and fashionable to bash our president, but I expect that pilots could be a little more intellectually honest about the situation. Bush is not youe enemy. Clinton screwed the American pilots over the 'sickout'. Know why? APA was not a big campaign contributor. ALPA was.

I think G.W. has bigger fish to fry right now than worrying about every single grievance we might have. Let him fix the economy. Pilot jobs will balance out in the end, to whatever level the market will bear. The Bush-bashing is getting old. I would not blame Bush for this situation, neither would I blame Clinton if he was still in office. The economy has a hangover. There's no cure for a hangover but time. No one wants to believe this, of course.

 

[Swass]

Well said.

 

[WrightAvia]

The industry could change alright, and the public isn't going to like what it turns into one bit.

(if airlines value customer service, airlines will bend to meet the need or be remembered in nostalgic thoughts...the airlines don't hold the public hostage. Customer service...you know what that means? I doubt it and neither do the airlines)

1. The national airline transportation system cannot adjust to such wild swings in demand as has been experienced in the last couple years. It's obvious that G.W. and the "gubment" doesn't give a s**t.

(the business models of airlines need to change...federal involvement into private enterprise? Nahhh. Then you will see the airlines owned by the government...hahaha they will hire the pilots, just like they do prison guards and parking ramp attendants and pay them the same. The fact that airlines cannot adjust to changes in demand is their problem not the government or the TAXPAYER'S...it was widely written that the industry KNEW for two years before 9/11 that a downturn was on the way and even though they knew their was going to be excess capacity, they bought planes anyway. The taxpayers should pay the burden for that?)

2. When the economy recovers and demand increases, the significantly reduced capacity will result in grossly increased ticket prices, like has not been seen before.

(no...capacity will spur more swa and jet blue type airlines and there will be expansion at the remaining majors... after a tree is pruned, it grows better than before)

3. Airlines will start packing in the seats like a cheap European charter operator.

(no...only if you get your wish of a single government subsidized airline...be careful what you wish for, you might just get it...you guys think the government cant run security worth a **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED** (TSA) wait till you see what they do in way of an AMTRAC airline service)


4. Airplanes will be packed.

(when did empty seats pay the bills except in a government owned system like the city bus service where you see nobody riding)

5. Many smaller cities will no longer get service.

(one, why would you care dude...you like flying MERLINS for 15K a year? I doubt very seriously that you would accept a little puddle jumper commuter job, flying a Shorts Skyvan into some little town. In many smaller towns the people are DRIVING to the hubs...people in Green Bay drive to MKE, MSP and ORD to save money on those rediculous fares airlines charge for that service and the extra security is a pain in the butt...people are now driving to MSP from MKE, it is so much more convenient now days and cheaper)

6. Air travel will deteriorate even deeper into "bus travel" ambiance.

(you are countering yourself here...Just like at Mcdonalds when you get to 1 billion served, something is lost...if you want airline travel to be special, price it out of reach of blue collar white trash and it's counterparts and it will look a lot less like a bus and more like the transportation for the well to do...ooops forgot, the well heeled have their own planes and either fly them themselves or hire corporate pilots or buy into fracs)

7. Employee attitudes will suffer as a result of grossly cut compensation.

(those still working in the airlines after the fat is trimmed off of the hog, will be feeling so lucky they STILL have jobs, they will REMEMBER who the CUSTOMER is and restore good service to the people that pay to ride on the plane)

If you think it's ugly for airline employees now, see what's it's like for customers in a couple of years.

(airline service has sucked for so long...you will never see empathy from the business travelers. As you know when you stop in a fast food place...the general public is willing to eat food in a place where the floors are sticky, the bathrooms are dirty and smell and the food is served like slop...they'll accept the same old crapy service from the airlines, just as long as it only costs 189 bucks to go round trip coast to coast.)

I think what you are proposing is a single, government owned airline, where like majik no one gets laid off, the checks always cash and if the airline needs more money, the government will print some more up to keep it running. Well guess what, turn on the news...if people aint working, nobody is gonna spend money on airfares, both business class or coach class vacationers and since the government is broke also...the government subsidized airline concept aint gonna work either. You should know that...college boy. When the tax base shrinks, for example when everybody is laid off or just plain out of work (like what's going on now), then the government has LESS money to spend, unless they raise taxes. Bush will be signing the same death warrant HIS daddy did, by raising taxes to float your job buddy. "READ MY LIPS, NO NEW TAXES".

I think when times are so tough right now with the economy on the skids, people laid off and jobs disapearing every day...that some guy banking on his tax payer paid skills and biatching about his high paid flying job not being kept afloat by taxpayers...cause there might be LESS service? Well, it kind of makes me sick...especially when the WELFARE of that whole thing depends not on profitablility, but government handouts. Did I say welfare?