Low-fare revolution could topple major airlines

[Ty Webb]

Guys and Gals, fellow professionals:

The future is so clear. I wish some of you would snap into reality and realize it's right in front of you.

Simple. All majors (other than SWA,JB etc.) will have 50,70-seat RJs flying all domestic flights 3 hours or less.

Sorry . . . but that isn't going to happen.

Have you ever sat in the back on an EMB145 for 2 hours? There is no way that anyone is going to be willing to sit back there for three hours, at least not anyone I know.

The RJ's have their own drawbacks . . . single class service, bring your own luggage, walk outside, etc. . . it's like a Jetstream with a lav, from a customer perspective.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

I have to agree with Ty here. I always hear on this board that management says people like flying on RJ's. Everyone I know that travels for busines purposes from my company hates them!! They feel incredibly cramped. I'm sure we all realize that not everyone is as comforatble being in small aircraft as most pilots are. The flying public prefers the RJ's to a 1900 but in general they can't stand them (particularly flying between major cities, BOS-Toronto for example).

I took AE from BOS-BNA and back a couple weekends ago. About two and a half hours down there from Boston. I had a window seat in the single seat row and I was uncomforatable for the whole ride. If it wasn't the one flight attendant serving about 45 passengers I had to watch out for, it was everyone walking back and forth to the lav. No leg room either.

As soon as the economy picks up again, I believe people will be much happier flying 737's and A320's between those cities. The majors will have to keep a sizable fleet of the 100-150 seat aircraft to compete with SWA, Airtran and JB during the economic upswings.

Good points Ty.


Mr. I.

 

[Intruder One]

JB a Major?

Uh........I don't think so,to be a major you have to have one billion in yearly sales ,you have along way to go......but keep on dreaming!

 

[Krusty]

I am not totally in favor of RJ's as a career, but it just happens that I fly one and am happy to have a job, but I have flown in the back sitting next to business passengers and I have heard from more than one that they liked the idea of getting on 50 seat other than 200 seats, this guy said he liked to be able to get off the plane in a few minutes compared to 10 on a wide body and liked that he could pick up his bag when he got off, instead of going all the way to baggage claim and waiting waiting for his bags. Shorters legs are probably the most desireable for this guy but, 2 hours does suck, anyway, passengers cannot really dictate what they will fly and what they will at this point, it is survival out there, if a major is going to fly all rj's to stay alive then that is what they will fly, and if Joe Smith wants to go from here to there, then that is what he will ride on.

anyway.....good luck to all.
What happens tomorrow?????

 

[Jeff G]

Re: JB a Major?

Uh........I don't think so,to be a major you have to have one billion in yearly sales ,you have along way to go......but keep on dreaming!

Last quarter, JBLU brought in $165.261M in revenue, with an average of 28.4 aircraft. That comes out to $5.819M per aircraft for the quarter. Let's be conservative and say that in the future each aircraft will only bring in $5M per quarter, or $20M a year.

JetBlue will have 50 aircraft by the end of next year, a little more than 12 months off. 50 x $20M = $1000M in revenue = major airline status.

That's in a little more than a year. "Along way to go" indeed. JetBlue will achieve major airline status sometime in 2004, at the latest.

 

[NYRANGERS]

Re: Re: JB a Major?

Last quarter, JBLU brought in $165.261M in revenue, with an average of 28.4 aircraft. That comes out to $5.819M per aircraft for the quarter. Let's be conservative and say that in the future each aircraft will only bring in $5M per quarter, or $20M a year.

JetBlue will have 50 aircraft by the end of next year, a little more than 12 months off. 50 x $20M = $1000M in revenue = major airline status.

That's in a little more than a year. "Along way to go" indeed. JetBlue will achieve major airline status sometime in 2004, at the latest.

Congratulations Jeff. It still seems a little silly to call an airline with only 50 airplanes a major. But those are the rules. Hopefully Fresh Air (or whatever the hell they are going to call the new Delta LCC) will cut into some of your market share.

Interesting times are ahead.

Take care Jeff.

NYR

 

[Spur]

What about the Avro RJ-85? It's more comfortable than a F100 for sure. It's slower than snot, but I love it when Im commuting on NW and see one at my gate. Perhaps the future holds more RJs of similar gauge.

 

[Jeff G]

Re: Re: Re: JB a Major?

Congratulations Jeff. It still seems a little silly to call an airline with only 50 airplanes a major. But those are the rules.

It's not the size that matters, but how you use it.

Hopefully Fresh Air (or whatever the hell they are going to call the new Delta LCC) will cut into some of your market share.

Market share? Who cares about market share? You can have 1% of the market and make money, or 80% of the market and lose money.

Go ahead and add flights. The marketplace will respond. Probably what will happen is that more people will fly, DAL will get a larger share, but JetBlue won't lose any passengers since the pie got larger. Of course, it remains to be seen if DAL makes a dime with the new service, and we already know JetBlue makes money from it.

Good luck.

 

[NYRANGERS]

Re: Re: Re: Re: JB a Major?

It's not the size that matters, but how you use it.



Market share? Who cares about market share? You can have 1% of the market and make money, or 80% of the market and lose money.

Go ahead and add flights. The marketplace will respond. Probably what will happen is that more people will fly, DAL will get a larger share, but JetBlue won't lose any passengers since the pie got larger. Of course, it remains to be seen if DAL makes a dime with the new service, and we already know JetBlue makes money from it.

Good luck.

Thanks for the well wishes. I think you will see this is different from Express. I hope it works, but I guess we will see.

IF this works they say the CASM will be below 8 cents. Should make money if we can fill them up.

Jeff, I know you were like me. You sent out applications to many airlines and you ended up at JB. I don't blame you for defending your airline on all the various message boards you post on. But you come off alot different than you did at PSA.

Anyway best of luck to you and your family.

Happy Holidays

 

[Citrusflyer]

JB a major

With all due respect to the Enron style math formula for making JB a major by 2004, don't forget that the DOT defines a major airline (passenger category) as one that has one billion dollars in revenue AND one million embarked passengers per year. Somehow I doubt fifty 162 seat jets can fly enough for that, even if you could generate the revenue stream for the billion. But I could be wrong.......

 

[Jeff G]

Jeff, I know you were like me. You sent out applications to many airlines and you ended up at JB. I don't blame you for defending your airline on all the various message boards you post on. But you come off alot different than you did at PSA.

Hm. I'm not sure how to take that. Maybe the difference is that everyone knows what it's like at a regional. There were tens of thousands of us, and the issues we faced were only different in small details. There wasn't a lot to talk about that a number of other pilots couldn't relate to. We were all in the same boat, by and large.

JetBlue is different. It's not a regional, not a typical startup, and not an established major, but has aspects of all of those. It is in many ways unique among airlines at the present time. The issues we're facing are not typical. It leads to a lot of misunderstanding. There's so much disinformation out there, and it's repeated so often, that it's easy to get sucked into a number of different small discussions and brushfires. After all, if I don't correct it, who will? There are tens of thousands of pilots who are willing to spread bad info, most because they don't know better, but a few just to take cheap shots. There's only a few hundred at JetBlue with the straight story, and not many are active on the web. Or at least not as active as I am.

I don't often start a fight. Heck, much of the time I'm just making posters defend conventional wisdom with facts rather than just propagate more junk. How many times have you heard that JetBlue doesn't pay for aircraft, for instance? It's everywhere. On the net, on the radio (I actually was challenged on clearance delivery once by another aircraft), in the terminal, from jumpseaters. It's difficult being a target of this kind of scorn. "Y'know, you're only making money because you don't pay for your planes." If I never hear that again, it'll be too soon.

But maybe I am taking it all too seriously and need to take a vacation from netting for a while. Sorry to come across as such a sarcastic schmuck.

But until then:

With all due respect to the Enron style math formula for making JB a major by 2004, don't forget that the DOT defines a major airline (passenger category) as one that has one billion dollars in revenue AND one million embarked passengers per year. Somehow I doubt fifty 162 seat jets can fly enough for that, even if you could generate the revenue stream for the billion. But I could be wrong.......

See what I mean? "Enron style math". He immediately discounts straight facts and a very conservative projection with an emotionally-laden adjective to lend an air of illegitimacy. I see this stuff every day. If he really flies for Airtran, this guy should know better.

BTW, Citrus, JetBlue carried 1.5 million passengers in the 3rd quarter alone. Sorry to burst your bubble.

It's a never ending job, NY.

 

[Skank]

Thanks, Jeff, for saying more eloquently what I feel. Anyway, I have nothing but good wishes for everyone out there flying for a living. You can sit around and wish us ill all you want, but our customers are making all of your dire predictions moot.
But thanks for constantly letting us prove you wrong.

 

[NYRANGERS]

Hey Jeff,

I wasn't taking a dig at all. I would have gone to JB.


It just seems some of you LCC guys take pleasure in taking malicious shots at the airlines that have been around a very long time. I am sure you would have gone to one of the "big" 5.

My take is very simple....

I hope all pilots in America can make a living they are happy with. I hate to hear of any pilot getting furloughed or worse(this applies to all airlines). I hope all of our airlines can stay in business and provide us jobs.

If your airline has to go out to help save mine............. then I guess I am going to have to go with mine.

Well wishes
\
NYR

And you are so right about the JB aircraft lease deal. I can't believe how many people still think JB is not paying for A/C. I wish all the airlines could get free jets.

 

[skysharke]

CBS News reported UAL pilots make 868 dollars per flight hour with an 85 per month garrantee. They repoted Jet Blue pilots making 350 per flight hour.

 

[Skank]

Darn, I need to start spending more. At 350 per hour I'll never be able to spend all that money I reputedly make.