Low-fare revolution could topple major airlines

[banned username 1]

Actually, the guy who started this thread either copied it from someplace or is wasting his talents flying airplanes. That was well done, albeit a bit chest-thumping.

While I don't begrudge anyone's success, many posters before this response have said it far more eloquently than I. Remember, it's really fun when you're growing up, but sometime, the reality of being grown up and it's inherent problems begin to set in. Even though SWA has been around for a relatively long time, it hasn't been around for a relatively long time, either. At some time, the juggernaut will plateau and the same old human and business realities will be there too. To reject this prediction is to deny history. To believe "it won't happen to me/us is akin to my teenagers absolutely convinced that they'll live forever and are somehow immune to the pitfalls of living.

It's a great airline and business model, but it's not the be-all and end-all of aviation. Think I'm wrong? Time will tell.

Be well.

UAL78

 

[Publishers]

Darnearajet

Actually I think most of those things were pretty right on. Peoples Express lost it's way by getting off the path of its model.

Valujet is Airtran and the concept was successful.

Crandall said 5 to survive til 1995. He was not far off and there may be 3 soon the way things are going

Sounds right to me

 

[General Lee]

I think the majors will have to adapt to the new LCC model, but not entirely. That is why Delta is trying to do something about it. They are trying to get a piece of the Low Cost segment. Not everyone wants to fly on a low cost carrier, but with today's economy more and more are doing so. But, things change and the Economy will eventually get better. Yes, Delta spent big bucks with McKensie Consulting to find an answer, and everyone is slamming it, without even seeing it. Other airlines, like Air Canada which is making profits again, have LCC inside their umbrella. Here is what Delta has going for it:
1. 550 mainline planes (ok, 15 less---minus MD11's)
2. $5 billion in unencumbered assets
3. A strong Hub structure---ATL, CVG, DFW, SLC, NYC
4. A strong Intl presence-----Europe, South America
5. Member of Skyteam---also Air France, Korean, Aero
Mexico, Czech----good feed opportunity
6. A future LCC--Fresh Air(?)---to compete with Airtran,
Southwest, Jetblue---to try to get a piece of pie
7. RJ's----Lots of them---upto 1000 eventually--good for
Hub feed---pax from smaller cities pay more $$
8. Possible Codeshare with NW/CO---huge benefits
9. Strong leaders---Leo---good with Congress, Fred Reid
was head of Lufthansa---knows business
10. Delta Shuttle in NYC---had 737-800's, now 737-300's
will make more $ with smaller planes
11. Less unions than other Majors, helps us pilots also

Those are some of the things going for Delta. Yes, the pilots have really high pay, and maybe that will come down, especially for the LCC. I think Air Tran, Southwest, and Jetblue do very well at what they do, which is low fare. Delta Express had its chance, and it only really broke even. Now, the LCC will try 757's with 80 more seats, less flight attendants, more entertainment, faster turn times---50mins, more flying throughout the day---13.2 hrs, and have a frequent flyer program that beats everyone elses, with more choices of destinations than Airtran, Southwest, and Jetblue. Advertising on the new LCC will be huge (on the backs of the furloughed employees no doubt), and that will attract attention. Then, we'll see what happens. Don't count Delta out until we see what happens. I really do think Southwest, Airtran, and Jetblue do a good job, but we'll try to do it too, that is a fact.

Bye Bye-----General Lee

 

[csmith]

Actually, the guy who started this thread either copied it from someplace or is wasting his talents flying airplanes. That was well done, albeit a bit chest-thumping.

While I don't begrudge anyone's success, many posters before this response have said it far more eloquently than I. Remember, it's really fun when you're growing up, but sometime, the reality of being grown up and it's inherent problems begin to set in. Even though SWA has been around for a relatively long time, it hasn't been around for a relatively long time, either. At some time, the juggernaut will plateau and the same old human and business realities will be there too. To reject this prediction is to deny history. To believe "it won't happen to me/us is akin to my teenagers absolutely convinced that they'll live forever and are somehow immune to the pitfalls of living.

It's a great airline and business model, but it's not the be-all and end-all of aviation. Think I'm wrong? Time will tell.

Be well.

UAL78

Very prophetic post. My wife and I are friends with a married Southwest couple. We talk about the differences a lot. We also all seem to agree that there seems to be a life cycle of the airline. While some are in their mature or declining phases, others are in their growth. Southwest is no different than UAL, DAL, AMR--just behind their life cycles by about 20-30 years.

 

[climbhappy]

low cost carriers.. the end all?

First, everyone should read the article which started all these good views..it's in aviation week... at www.aviationnow.com... my key points

1) the huge amount of borrowing the majors have done in this low revenue environment will stifle and be a huge ball and chain even when the economy picks up steam...latest figure according to article...90%of debt for every for every dollar of market cap.

2) the guy's article is drawn on trends and shows a weakening of market share by the majors (big 6) from 75% to 45% in 10 or 15 years. This doesn't take into account all of the variables...it's reallly subject to alot of scrutiny.

It's akin to the problems of detroit in the 70's and 80's...when japan started kickin our ass they got their act together...i wont even attempt to define how they do it.. they get paid the big bucks...

3) SWA will have to deal with the following problems which have already started....recent 20% rise in labor costs.... shrinking earnings picture... As a company grows to certain revenue levels...it becomes harder and harder to enjow the same economies of scale which brought it there... i'm just the messenger, but call any analyst and then watch their performance over the next three years.

4) the laws of supply and demand didn't get written yesterday. they'll work in the airline, tobacco, auto, etc., etc.,

 

[beytzim]

Guys and Gals, fellow professionals:

The future is so clear. I wish some of you would snap into reality and realize it's right in front of you.

Simple. All majors (other than SWA,JB etc.) will have 50,70-seat RJs flying all domestic flights 3 hours or less.

Those same majors will have retired all short haul B727s,B737s,DC9s, MD80,F100s etc. The smallest aircraft would be 757s (maybe 737-800s too) and wide bodies. These aircraft would ONLY fly coast-to-coast or Int'l. It's inevitable, don't fight it.

ALL THE SCOPE CLAUSES IN THE WORLD AIN'T GONNA STOP IT!

So to qoute Cher, "Snap out of it"

Happy flying!

 

[Draginass]

In times of economic distress, the low cost carriers do much better than the full-service airlines. When the economic turn-around comes, the industry will return pretty much back to where it was before. Maybe the trailer court crowd wants to travel greyhound style (although I think greyhound at least assigns seats), but a lot of people don't.

As an academic question, I wonder if the long term economic impacts on individual airlines would have been different if it had been LCC airplanes that had been used by the the islamic suicide mass murders instead of UAL and AA aircraft.

 

[LiveFreeorDie]

Guys and Gals, fellow professionals:

...
So to qoute Cher, "Snap out of it"

Quoting CHER??!!!


Are you a woman or some kinda sweater wearing homo?

Sorry, just couldn't resist a cheap laugh at your expense.

Cheers

 

[Intruder One]

TO: JAYDUB

I Think if I see one more JB capt' on here with 3000+ hrs. I'm going to puke,and it had to be less than that when you got hired,I guess thats how they get away with sub par wages.

 

[JayDub]

Intruder One

Intruder One,

Your assumptions are incorrect. You must have come to know about jetBlue in the last year, otherwise you'd know the original requirement was all applicants had to have over 3000TT. My feeling is, I met the original requirements, so other than that what does any member on this board need to know about me. It cracks me up when members of this forum update their profile after every flight so you can get an exact number of their flight hours.

I Think if I see one more JB capt' on here with 3000+ hrs.

So, you want people to be Captains with less than 3000 hours total time???? I think I know what you are implying with your statement, but their is an old truism about what happens when you assume. Most of the people you see posting on this forum that work for jetBlue are atleast as qualified as those getting hired at DAL, UAL, etc. 2-3 years ago.

I guess thats how they get away with sub par wages.

I am in my second year of employment. With that said, I'll put what I make against what any second year pilot makes at any major airline. Our work rules make it so we get time and a half for anything over monthly guarantee. That means we get rewarded for being productive. Who knows about the future holds, we might make more but we certainly won't make less, unlike other airlines.

I wish you the best Intruder One. Let me know if you have any more questions.


JayDub

 

[NYRANGERS]

JAY DUB

Better research Delta before you "put up" any of your money.

But I am sure we are all Very Impressed with you. Have you maxed out your earning potential in only two years?

 

[Intruder One]

reply:JayDub

Well JayDub forgot to mention that at JB you are a capt. by year two I guess you are making more than you would anywhere else.But getting on at a start up is fantasy land as far as upgrade time.I hope their training is fantastic or they will have problems.I have a friend that got on there early on and he too is a capt. but he had 10000+ hrs under his belt......big difference!Also why is JB under the major heading is these post,it is along way from being a major airline.

 

[SpeedBird]

Intruder One

Hey...why are you pissing in the cereal bowls of jetBlue pilots?

I guess if I was a furloughed pilot from one of the "major" big five carriers, or some NASA astronaut waiting for the next hiring cycle to begin at AA or UA I'd be annoyed with all the glowing press that jetBlue seems to get.

HOWEVER, I wouldn't go around demeaning their pilots. What have jetBlue pilots done to you?

If your gonna say something about bringing down good wages, while at the same time criticizing the fact that they're not a major airline yet, then you can't have it both ways. How can an airline that has only 30 airplanes and 500 pilots put any tangible pressure on this industry and the pilot profession?

The problems that are being felt by the majors have nothing to do with what jetBlue has done up to this point in their brief existence. Besides, pilots working for jetBlue are paid very well for only having been at work for less than three years.

I know a lot of people are under significant stress, and feel cheated for a variety of reasons right now. This industry has a cruel way of turning the tables on your personal career goals and making you eat humble pie.

If things had been different for me in my timing, I would have most likely been working for one of the big five carriers myself, but they weren't hiring at the time so I went with the best thing going, and I feel extremely grateful for my job at jetBlue. I work with great people who are as professional and hard working as at any other airline in the world. We don't have to say "excuse me" to anyone, and most certainly not to you.

Get over your frustration and envy...life is too short for anyone to feel that way.

 

[Skank]

Intruder,
actually we are quite close to being a major, and I believe (I'll find out) that we'll be there sometime next year.

I'm sorry so many of you find us (our pay, our business plan, etc.)so offensive. I can't say that I agree with you, but to each his own. Good luck in all of your endeavors.

 

[Ty Webb]

All majors (other than SWA,JB etc.) will have 50,70-seat RJs flying all domestic flights 3 hours or less.

That's not going to happen, for a number of reasons.

Have you ever spent two hours in an RJ? Would you willingly sit back there for three hours? I don;t think so, and neither is your average passenger.

The RJ's also only offer single class service, more congestion, etc.

They are fine for what they are designed for, but when the props are gone, the pax will think of them like a B1900 with a lav. I already hear people calling them "puddle-jumpers".

People wouldn't sit for three hours in a Jetstream, and they aren;t going to do it in a EMB140, either.