Low-fare revolution could topple major airlines

[banned username 1]

Actually, the guy who started this thread either copied it from someplace or is wasting his talents flying airplanes. That was well done, albeit a bit chest-thumping.

While I don't begrudge anyone's success, many posters before this response have said it far more eloquently than I. Remember, it's really fun when you're growing up, but sometime, the reality of being grown up and it's inherent problems begin to set in. Even though SWA has been around for a relatively long time, it hasn't been around for a relatively long time, either. At some time, the juggernaut will plateau and the same old human and business realities will be there too. To reject this prediction is to deny history. To believe "it won't happen to me/us is akin to my teenagers absolutely convinced that they'll live forever and are somehow immune to the pitfalls of living.

It's a great airline and business model, but it's not the be-all and end-all of aviation. Think I'm wrong? Time will tell.

Be well.

UAL78

 

[Publishers]

Darnearajet

Actually I think most of those things were pretty right on. Peoples Express lost it's way by getting off the path of its model.

Valujet is Airtran and the concept was successful.

Crandall said 5 to survive til 1995. He was not far off and there may be 3 soon the way things are going

Sounds right to me

 

[General Lee]

I think the majors will have to adapt to the new LCC model, but not entirely. That is why Delta is trying to do something about it. They are trying to get a piece of the Low Cost segment. Not everyone wants to fly on a low cost carrier, but with today's economy more and more are doing so. But, things change and the Economy will eventually get better. Yes, Delta spent big bucks with McKensie Consulting to find an answer, and everyone is slamming it, without even seeing it. Other airlines, like Air Canada which is making profits again, have LCC inside their umbrella. Here is what Delta has going for it:
1. 550 mainline planes (ok, 15 less---minus MD11's)
2. $5 billion in unencumbered assets
3. A strong Hub structure---ATL, CVG, DFW, SLC, NYC
4. A strong Intl presence-----Europe, South America
5. Member of Skyteam---also Air France, Korean, Aero
Mexico, Czech----good feed opportunity
6. A future LCC--Fresh Air(?)---to compete with Airtran,
Southwest, Jetblue---to try to get a piece of pie
7. RJ's----Lots of them---upto 1000 eventually--good for
Hub feed---pax from smaller cities pay more $$
8. Possible Codeshare with NW/CO---huge benefits
9. Strong leaders---Leo---good with Congress, Fred Reid
was head of Lufthansa---knows business
10. Delta Shuttle in NYC---had 737-800's, now 737-300's
will make more $ with smaller planes
11. Less unions than other Majors, helps us pilots also

Those are some of the things going for Delta. Yes, the pilots have really high pay, and maybe that will come down, especially for the LCC. I think Air Tran, Southwest, and Jetblue do very well at what they do, which is low fare. Delta Express had its chance, and it only really broke even. Now, the LCC will try 757's with 80 more seats, less flight attendants, more entertainment, faster turn times---50mins, more flying throughout the day---13.2 hrs, and have a frequent flyer program that beats everyone elses, with more choices of destinations than Airtran, Southwest, and Jetblue. Advertising on the new LCC will be huge (on the backs of the furloughed employees no doubt), and that will attract attention. Then, we'll see what happens. Don't count Delta out until we see what happens. I really do think Southwest, Airtran, and Jetblue do a good job, but we'll try to do it too, that is a fact.

Bye Bye-----General Lee

 

[csmith]

Actually, the guy who started this thread either copied it from someplace or is wasting his talents flying airplanes. That was well done, albeit a bit chest-thumping.

While I don't begrudge anyone's success, many posters before this response have said it far more eloquently than I. Remember, it's really fun when you're growing up, but sometime, the reality of being grown up and it's inherent problems begin to set in. Even though SWA has been around for a relatively long time, it hasn't been around for a relatively long time, either. At some time, the juggernaut will plateau and the same old human and business realities will be there too. To reject this prediction is to deny history. To believe "it won't happen to me/us is akin to my teenagers absolutely convinced that they'll live forever and are somehow immune to the pitfalls of living.

It's a great airline and business model, but it's not the be-all and end-all of aviation. Think I'm wrong? Time will tell.

Be well.

UAL78

Very prophetic post. My wife and I are friends with a married Southwest couple. We talk about the differences a lot. We also all seem to agree that there seems to be a life cycle of the airline. While some are in their mature or declining phases, others are in their growth. Southwest is no different than UAL, DAL, AMR--just behind their life cycles by about 20-30 years.

 

[climbhappy]

low cost carriers.. the end all?

First, everyone should read the article which started all these good views..it's in aviation week... at www.aviationnow.com... my key points

1) the huge amount of borrowing the majors have done in this low revenue environment will stifle and be a huge ball and chain even when the economy picks up steam...latest figure according to article...90%of debt for every for every dollar of market cap.

2) the guy's article is drawn on trends and shows a weakening of market share by the majors (big 6) from 75% to 45% in 10 or 15 years. This doesn't take into account all of the variables...it's reallly subject to alot of scrutiny.

It's akin to the problems of detroit in the 70's and 80's...when japan started kickin our ass they got their act together...i wont even attempt to define how they do it.. they get paid the big bucks...

3) SWA will have to deal with the following problems which have already started....recent 20% rise in labor costs.... shrinking earnings picture... As a company grows to certain revenue levels...it becomes harder and harder to enjow the same economies of scale which brought it there... i'm just the messenger, but call any analyst and then watch their performance over the next three years.

4) the laws of supply and demand didn't get written yesterday. they'll work in the airline, tobacco, auto, etc., etc.,

 

[beytzim]

Guys and Gals, fellow professionals:

The future is so clear. I wish some of you would snap into reality and realize it's right in front of you.

Simple. All majors (other than SWA,JB etc.) will have 50,70-seat RJs flying all domestic flights 3 hours or less.

Those same majors will have retired all short haul B727s,B737s,DC9s, MD80,F100s etc. The smallest aircraft would be 757s (maybe 737-800s too) and wide bodies. These aircraft would ONLY fly coast-to-coast or Int'l. It's inevitable, don't fight it.

ALL THE SCOPE CLAUSES IN THE WORLD AIN'T GONNA STOP IT!

So to qoute Cher, "Snap out of it"

Happy flying!

 

[Draginass]

In times of economic distress, the low cost carriers do much better than the full-service airlines. When the economic turn-around comes, the industry will return pretty much back to where it was before. Maybe the trailer court crowd wants to travel greyhound style (although I think greyhound at least assigns seats), but a lot of people don't.

As an academic question, I wonder if the long term economic impacts on individual airlines would have been different if it had been LCC airplanes that had been used by the the islamic suicide mass murders instead of UAL and AA aircraft.

 

[LiveFreeorDie]

Guys and Gals, fellow professionals:

...
So to qoute Cher, "Snap out of it"

Quoting CHER??!!!


Are you a woman or some kinda sweater wearing homo?

Sorry, just couldn't resist a cheap laugh at your expense.

Cheers

 

[Intruder One]

TO: JAYDUB

I Think if I see one more JB capt' on here with 3000+ hrs. I'm going to puke,and it had to be less than that when you got hired,I guess thats how they get away with sub par wages.

 

[JayDub]

Intruder One

Intruder One,

Your assumptions are incorrect. You must have come to know about jetBlue in the last year, otherwise you'd know the original requirement was all applicants had to have over 3000TT. My feeling is, I met the original requirements, so other than that what does any member on this board need to know about me. It cracks me up when members of this forum update their profile after every flight so you can get an exact number of their flight hours.

I Think if I see one more JB capt' on here with 3000+ hrs.

So, you want people to be Captains with less than 3000 hours total time???? I think I know what you are implying with your statement, but their is an old truism about what happens when you assume. Most of the people you see posting on this forum that work for jetBlue are atleast as qualified as those getting hired at DAL, UAL, etc. 2-3 years ago.

I guess thats how they get away with sub par wages.

I am in my second year of employment. With that said, I'll put what I make against what any second year pilot makes at any major airline. Our work rules make it so we get time and a half for anything over monthly guarantee. That means we get rewarded for being productive. Who knows about the future holds, we might make more but we certainly won't make less, unlike other airlines.

I wish you the best Intruder One. Let me know if you have any more questions.


JayDub