Looming Pilot Shortage Lowering the Bar???--Article

[eaglefly]

And just think with over 10,000 hours I could not get an interview with AE in 1996 because I did not have 500 hours in the last year. I only had around 400 hours in MEL turbine. I probalby would not have worked there anyway. Oh to be 33 again just getting out of the Navy.

If you had (and stayed), you'd be an RJ captain in the mid 900's seniority out of 2800 pilots. You'd be getting 14-15 days off per month, 80-95K/year depending on overtime or creative bidding and 75% match on your 401(k) and at least some job security.

Not the best, but not horrible either. Many college grads outside of aviation would consider that a decent living.

I guess Eagle's being forced to take all the 500 hour pilots, becasue all the 1000 hour ones are grabbing the DA-20 slots there for $10K/year more.

 

[climbhappy]

would it be simplistic to raise ticket prices? yes i guess so.

a few regionals need to disapear, but creditors are always ready to bend over for these big buc jets.

that is why it is so hard to kill a major. the common shareholders and pilots take it up the shorts and new lean company emerges and then makes money like they are now.

if the BK judges ordered liquidation, you'd have fewer airlines and bigger paychecks for more qualified pilots and the bar would go back up. sounds easy anyway

 

[Max Powers]

would it be simplistic to raise ticket prices? yes i guess so.

a few regionals need to disapear, but creditors are always ready to bend over for these big buc jets.

that is why it is so hard to kill a major. the common shareholders and pilots take it up the shorts and new lean company emerges and then makes money like they are now.

if the BK judges ordered liquidation, you'd have fewer airlines and bigger paychecks for more qualified pilots and the bar would go back up. sounds easy anyway

.You can't raise ticket prices out there with excess capacity and routes that would be insolvent with ticket prices below 100 dollars.

Yes all you said is correct but one piece to the pay formula is give power back to the working man and not the CEO who demands to be paid "wait he is worth"

 

[ualdriver]

Ualdriver, although quotes like that play well on CNBS, they're not based in reality. You will actually find that economists are very hesitant to call a recession because it has a tendency to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The unwinding of the housing bubble is wreaking havoc on the credit markets. Risk premiums are shooting through the roof. Hedge funds, SIVs, banks, mutual funds, etc are trying to unwind their leverage. That is going to cause severe liquidity contraction. The economy is only starting to unwind; it's going to get much, much worse.
If you own a house, I highly recommend selling and renting for the next few years. It will save you a lot of money because housing prices have quite a way to fall. Shiller's calling for a 30% drop in housing prices; I think that he's being optimistic.

If you're into the stock market, I'd recommend parking it in short term government securities for a while. It's gonna get ugly.

Way off topic, and I've read your posts on other threads concerning this topic.

2 major points:

1) It is IMPOSSIBLE to time the market. Impossible. The pros can't do it. The pros don't even know other pros that can do it consistently. I said "experts" predicting 13 of the last 3 recessions tongue in cheek as many of these so called experts are charlatans who look and sound good on TV. Sorry man, not taking your advice to sell the house and sell stock. In fact, I'll be buying on the dips.

2) I have over 208 years of U.S. stock market, Bond, T-Bill, and Gold history sitting next to me on my desk that I refer to when the latest talking head talks about "the big one." The squiggly lines go down. The squiggly lines go up. And the trend has gone up overall- for 208 years. In "recent" history (the past 100 years), we've been through 2 World Wars, Vietnam, Korea, stagflation, the "nifty fifty," an internet bubble, 9/11, and that's just off the top of my head. Even if you're right about the unwinding of credit due to a housing bubble, the market (housing, stock, bond, whatever) will correct, and we'll come out the other end chugging along. Sorry, not buying economic castrophe yet considering this economy has made it through far worse.

Good luck with your predictions, though. I hope they make you a lot of money!

 

[cjdriver]

To only slightly change the subject; was it ever discovered what caused the gear up touchdown and subsequent go around of the AE RJ a couple months ago at Boston? Just curious.

 

[Question4U]

delete

 

[Question4U]

Pay a professional wage and you'll have all the pilots you want. Until I see crappy airlines like Skybus and Virgin paying the going rate to attract pilots, until I see regionals parking RJ's en masse for lack of pilots, until I see small communities losing air service for lack of aircrew, until I see regionals either paying for flight training from day one or raising entry level wages to a point that allows a professional pilot to earn a good living will servicing the debt required to obtain said position, I won't believe there is a pilot shortage.


Ual maybe United should take your advise there pay and work rules are a joke.

 

[Lear70]

2) I have over 208 years of U.S. stock market, Bond, T-Bill, and Gold history sitting next to me on my desk that I refer to when the latest talking head talks about "the big one." The squiggly lines go down. The squiggly lines go up. And the trend has gone up overall- for 208 years. In "recent" history (the past 100 years), we've been through 2 World Wars, Vietnam, Korea, stagflation, the "nifty fifty," an internet bubble, 9/11, and that's just off the top of my head. Even if you're right about the unwinding of credit due to a housing bubble, the market (housing, stock, bond, whatever) will correct, and we'll come out the other end chugging along. Sorry, not buying economic castrophe yet considering this economy has made it through far worse.

Good luck with your predictions, though. I hope they make you a lot of money!

The squiggly lines continue to go up because of inflation. As the price of everything trends up, so do the prices of individual stocks, and the combined indexes of the Dow, S&P, etc.

To somehow link the general increase of the indexes to an increasingly profitable economy is a flawed argument.

Personally, I've done pretty dang good off my stock choices based on how the economy in general is doing (average 18% ROI over the last 15 years and never worse than 7%, knock on wood). I agree with Andy in theory, if not in intensity: I shifted everything into international mutual funds with a nice, stable 7% growth on a 10-15 year average about 3 months ago and will likely leave them there until the housing bubble finishes popping and the dollar's decline against foreign currencies stabilizes.

As far as the "pilot shortage" goes, we all know that if you fix the money and long-term stability, you fix the shortage. The problem is that the public in general doesn't care, as long as their family of 5 can go see Grandma cheaper flying than they can driving the minivan and they don't die in the process.

The problem we have is that salaries have not increased linearly with inflation, i.e. pilots make less take-home in terms of actual spending power now than they did 20 years ago. Hell, I'm out here flying a Lear for $60k a year as a CA. 10 years ago I was doing the same thing for the same price which was average *THEN*, meaning I *SHOULD* be making about $80k-85k a year now doing that same job. Just about every other pilot in the 135 and 121 world (outside of Netjets, FDX, and UPS) has that same problem.

As callous as it sounds, until enough airplanes are parked that passengers en masse can't get from Point A to Point B or we have a couple accidents with fatalities (God forbid, seriously) with some of those 400 hour wunderkids behind the controls, nothing will change.

Just the reality we live in.

 

[jonjuan]

Pay a professional wage and you'll have all the pilots you want. Until I see crappy airlines like Skybus and Virgin paying the going rate to attract pilots, until I see regionals parking RJ's en masse for lack of pilots, until I see small communities losing air service for lack of aircrew, until I see regionals either paying for flight training from day one or raising entry level wages to a point that allows a professional pilot to earn a good living will servicing the debt required to obtain said position, I won't believe there is a pilot shortage.

So, as there is no lack of qualified applicants lining up to be hired at every major airline, the pay is professional enough?

 

[Lear70]

So, as there is no lack of qualified applicants lining up to be hired at every major airline, the pay is professional enough?

Evidently...

Chasing that brass ring that just keeps moving further and further away and seems to be changing shape into a carrot dangling from a stick held by the monkey on your back is apparently becoming an acceptable practice.

 

[Question4U]

So, as there is no lack of qualified applicants lining up to be hired at every major airline, the pay is professional enough?

Exactly, ual is in his little honeymoon at United. There are regionals that have better work rules and pay. I heard United doesn't even get block or better.

 

[JAM-BRO]

GEORGE BUSH.....destroyed any leverage the unions had. Just look at the make of the NMB and legislation that he has sponsored and or supported.

And of course it seems all of the pilots I fly with support his unbalanced and unchecked approach to the free market place.

Just look at the decision his appointed judge made in regard to Trans states/gojets issue. This judge concluded that since Gojets had a different swipe key to get into their offices(which were in the same building as Trans states) meant they were a completely different and unrelated company. Allowing them the power to whip saw and bring already eroded wages down further.

Vote Democrat.....let me guess this message will be pulled because the republican Flightinfo monitors will pull it. Pay 10 dollars for a blog web site with all sorts of revenue driven ads on it.....spells greed and republican.

Vote however you want, but wasn't it Democratic Pres Bill Clinton who PEB'ed APA back to work. American pilots went on strike for 4 minutes before Democratic Pres Clinton ORDERED the pilots back to work... Pro labor, huh!!!

We do not have friends in the White House. Presidents won't negotiate our future agreements. The only thing airline management fears is a pilot group that is not afraid to light the match and burn the place down for a fair contract. Until then, the raping and pillaging will continue.

 

[pilotyip]

No unemployed

If you had (and stayed), you'd be an RJ captain in the mid 900's seniority out of 2800 pilots. You'd be getting 14-15 days off per month, 80-95K/year depending on overtime or creative bidding and 75% match on your 401(k) and at least some job security.

Not the best, but not horrible either. Many college grads outside of aviation would consider that a decent living.

I guess Eagle's being forced to take all the 500 hour pilots, becasue all the 1000 hour ones are grabbing the DA-20 slots there for $10K/year more.

I turned 60 four years ago I would be unemployed. Besides I never had the chance I did not meet thier minimums because I did not have 500 hours in the last year.

 

[ualdriver]

The squiggly lines continue to go up because of inflation. As the price of everything trends up, so do the prices of individual stocks, and the combined indexes of the Dow, S&P, etc.

I'm talking real returns, not nominal returns. Certainly you're not arguing that equities, bonds, T-bills, and the squiggly lines that represent their growth over the past 200 years, have only made returns equal to inflation?

To somehow link the general increase of the indexes to an increasingly profitable economy is a flawed argument.

I think the general increase of the indexes over the past couple of centuries are a symptom of a thriving U.S. economy.

Personally, I've done pretty dang good off my stock choices based on how the economy in general is doing (average 18% ROI over the last 15 years and never worse than 7%, knock on wood).

If you've made a total (nominal?) annualized return of 18% on average over the past 15 years, you are probably in the 99th+ percentile of all investors. You should consider a career in professional investing. Miller beats the S&P 500 for about 10 years (and he didn't even make 18% annualized) and he's legendary. You've trounced it for 15 years, a feat the vast, vast majority of professionals have not even accomplished. You're in the wrong business.

I agree with Andy in theory, if not in intensity: I shifted everything into international mutual funds with a nice, stable 7% growth on a 10-15 year average about 3 months ago and will likely leave them there until the housing bubble finishes popping and the dollar's decline against foreign currencies stabilizes.

Well, if one's argument for shifting everything into foreign equities is to escape the inevitable decline (or crash or whatever) of the U.S. equity market (due to the decline of the dollar, the housing bubble, peak oil, whatever), one might want to consider a different path as foreign markets (using the EAFE as a proxy) have about a .7 correlation with U.S. equities right now, and historically have also been highly correlated. Perhaps something with a negative correlation to U.S. equities is in order if we're headed toward economic difficulty and one is seeking to avoid it?

As callous as it sounds, until enough airplanes are parked that passengers en masse can't get from Point A to Point B or we have a couple accidents with fatalities (God forbid, seriously) with some of those 400 hour wunderkids behind the controls, nothing will change.

Yup, that would do it too!

 

[ualdriver]

Exactly, ual is in his little honeymoon at United. There are regionals that have better work rules and pay. I heard United doesn't even get block or better.

Question4U:

1) Who do you work for?
2) Which regionals have better overall pay than UAL? I would like to know where I should be sending an application!
3) So if we get block or better, that makes for a "good" airline?

 

[Question4U]

Question4U:

1) Who do you work for?
2) Which regionals have better overall pay than UAL? I would like to know where I should be sending an application!
3) So if we get block or better, that makes for a "good" airline?

First off United is a 3-4 year pay cut from most regionals. You have no aircraft orders and are setting yourself up for a merger, that is the big bankrupcy plan? I don't think if I were you I would bash other airlines b/c UAL lowered the bar just as much if not more than anybody else.

 

[Question4U]

Question4U:

1) Who do you work for?
2) Which regionals have better overall pay than UAL? I would like to know where I should be sending an application!
3) So if we get block or better, that makes for a "good" airline?

I guess if you come from Mesa you are right UAL is the "dream job"

 

[ualdriver]

First off United is a 3-4 year pay cut from most regionals.

So is UPS. You had better get over to the Cargo thread and tell them they're lowering the bar over there.

You have no aircraft orders and are setting yourself up for a merger, that is the big bankrupcy plan?

Got it. If an airline currently has no aircraft orders, that's a harbinger of bad things to come! Just get hired by the airline with the most aircraft orders and you're set for life!! And if you think UAL is the only airline looking for a merger partner, then I suggest you search around the major airlines section of Yahoo! finance at a minimum. We're just the only airline that has a CEO that talks about it very openly.

I don't think if I were you I would bash other airlines b/c UAL lowered the bar just as much if not more than anybody else.

Let's see......we built upon the gains made by Union pilots in 2000 and had the highest paid pilots in the industry (by a few % points). Other pilots at certain other airlines massively undercut our industry leading wages and used that as a competitive advantage to bleed us to death. We (as an industry) are forced to match these new low LCC wages or become uncompetitive.

So knowing all of this, the airline that had the highest paid pilots in the industry AND hoped others would follow are responsible for lowering the bar? Yup. You're right!

Further, I don't care if you're a Mesa pilot or a Space Shuttle pilot. I never said UAL is anyone's dream job. In fact, I hope NO ONE applies to UAL. It will make it that much easier for us to negotiate higher wages.

You still haven't mentioned which airline you work for?

 

[Question4U]

So is UPS. You had better get over to the Cargo thread and tell them they're lowering the bar over there.



Yes UPS is a pay cut for a year, but you make it up the second year at $112 and hour (a little bit better than $50). I understand you are really excited with your new dream job it's O.k but I don't think you should be saying that regionals and virgin are lowering the bar becuase you are right there. UAL is no better than the rest thats all I am trying to say.

 

[ualdriver]

Yes UPS is a pay cut for a year, but you make it up the second year at $112 and hour (a little bit better than $50).

OK, so any airline that doesn't have $100/hr+ second year wages isn't worth going to for a regional pilot? So why are you just lumping UAL in that category?

I understand you are really excited with your new dream job

My "new" dream job? WTF are you talking about?

it's O.k but I don't think you should be saying that regionals and virgin are lowering the bar becuase you are right there.

Yeah, we're "right there" with Virgin's $95/hour Captains with no retirement.

UAL is no better than the rest thats all I am trying to say.

Depends on how you define "the rest." If you're putting airlines like Virgin or regional airlines in "the rest" category, I beg to differ. I suspect most pilots would.

I won't be responding further to any of your posts until you tell us all which airline you work for.