- Oct 17, 2003
- Total Time
Yeah, I've heard that before, and I really think it's stupid, blind, dumb luck, good mutual funds in our 401(k) accounts, and a little piece of advice my great uncle gave me before he died (he left about $600 Million to his 3 kids and wife when he went so he knew a little something about it).If you've made a total (nominal?) annualized return of 18% on average over the past 15 years, you are probably in the 99th+ percentile of all investors. You should consider a career in professional investing. Miller beats the S&P 500 for about 10 years (and he didn't even make 18% annualized) and he's legendary. You've trounced it for 15 years, a feat the vast, vast majority of professionals have not even accomplished. You're in the wrong business.
The minute I really tried to focus on it, I'd probably lose my shirt...
Historically speaking, my foreign investments in small cap funds have paid more than individual U.S. stock investments, so I trust them where they're parked and they're spread out over several different sectors and currencies so I'm pretty evenly divested if one performs poorly, plus I've changed over to a more conservative strategy until things stabilize a bit (think bonds and such).Well, if one's argument for shifting everything into foreign equities is to escape the inevitable decline (or crash or whatever) of the U.S. equity market (due to the decline of the dollar, the housing bubble, peak oil, whatever), one might want to consider a different path as foreign markets (using the EAFE as a proxy) have about a .7 correlation with U.S. equities right now, and historically have also been highly correlated. Perhaps something with a negative correlation to U.S. equities is in order if we're headed toward economic difficulty and one is seeking to avoid it?