Looming Pilot Shortage Lowering the Bar???--Article

[Question4U]

So, as there is no lack of qualified applicants lining up to be hired at every major airline, the pay is professional enough?

Exactly, ual is in his little honeymoon at United. There are regionals that have better work rules and pay. I heard United doesn't even get block or better.

 

[JAM-BRO]

GEORGE BUSH.....destroyed any leverage the unions had. Just look at the make of the NMB and legislation that he has sponsored and or supported.

And of course it seems all of the pilots I fly with support his unbalanced and unchecked approach to the free market place.

Just look at the decision his appointed judge made in regard to Trans states/gojets issue. This judge concluded that since Gojets had a different swipe key to get into their offices(which were in the same building as Trans states) meant they were a completely different and unrelated company. Allowing them the power to whip saw and bring already eroded wages down further.

Vote Democrat.....let me guess this message will be pulled because the republican Flightinfo monitors will pull it. Pay 10 dollars for a blog web site with all sorts of revenue driven ads on it.....spells greed and republican.

Vote however you want, but wasn't it Democratic Pres Bill Clinton who PEB'ed APA back to work. American pilots went on strike for 4 minutes before Democratic Pres Clinton ORDERED the pilots back to work... Pro labor, huh!!!

We do not have friends in the White House. Presidents won't negotiate our future agreements. The only thing airline management fears is a pilot group that is not afraid to light the match and burn the place down for a fair contract. Until then, the raping and pillaging will continue.

 

[pilotyip]

No unemployed

If you had (and stayed), you'd be an RJ captain in the mid 900's seniority out of 2800 pilots. You'd be getting 14-15 days off per month, 80-95K/year depending on overtime or creative bidding and 75% match on your 401(k) and at least some job security.

Not the best, but not horrible either. Many college grads outside of aviation would consider that a decent living.

I guess Eagle's being forced to take all the 500 hour pilots, becasue all the 1000 hour ones are grabbing the DA-20 slots there for $10K/year more.

I turned 60 four years ago I would be unemployed. Besides I never had the chance I did not meet thier minimums because I did not have 500 hours in the last year.

 

[ualdriver]

The squiggly lines continue to go up because of inflation. As the price of everything trends up, so do the prices of individual stocks, and the combined indexes of the Dow, S&P, etc.

I'm talking real returns, not nominal returns. Certainly you're not arguing that equities, bonds, T-bills, and the squiggly lines that represent their growth over the past 200 years, have only made returns equal to inflation?

To somehow link the general increase of the indexes to an increasingly profitable economy is a flawed argument.

I think the general increase of the indexes over the past couple of centuries are a symptom of a thriving U.S. economy.

Personally, I've done pretty dang good off my stock choices based on how the economy in general is doing (average 18% ROI over the last 15 years and never worse than 7%, knock on wood).

If you've made a total (nominal?) annualized return of 18% on average over the past 15 years, you are probably in the 99th+ percentile of all investors. You should consider a career in professional investing. Miller beats the S&P 500 for about 10 years (and he didn't even make 18% annualized) and he's legendary. You've trounced it for 15 years, a feat the vast, vast majority of professionals have not even accomplished. You're in the wrong business.

I agree with Andy in theory, if not in intensity: I shifted everything into international mutual funds with a nice, stable 7% growth on a 10-15 year average about 3 months ago and will likely leave them there until the housing bubble finishes popping and the dollar's decline against foreign currencies stabilizes.

Well, if one's argument for shifting everything into foreign equities is to escape the inevitable decline (or crash or whatever) of the U.S. equity market (due to the decline of the dollar, the housing bubble, peak oil, whatever), one might want to consider a different path as foreign markets (using the EAFE as a proxy) have about a .7 correlation with U.S. equities right now, and historically have also been highly correlated. Perhaps something with a negative correlation to U.S. equities is in order if we're headed toward economic difficulty and one is seeking to avoid it?

As callous as it sounds, until enough airplanes are parked that passengers en masse can't get from Point A to Point B or we have a couple accidents with fatalities (God forbid, seriously) with some of those 400 hour wunderkids behind the controls, nothing will change.

Yup, that would do it too!

 

[ualdriver]

Exactly, ual is in his little honeymoon at United. There are regionals that have better work rules and pay. I heard United doesn't even get block or better.

Question4U:

1) Who do you work for?
2) Which regionals have better overall pay than UAL? I would like to know where I should be sending an application!
3) So if we get block or better, that makes for a "good" airline?

 

[Question4U]

Question4U:

1) Who do you work for?
2) Which regionals have better overall pay than UAL? I would like to know where I should be sending an application!
3) So if we get block or better, that makes for a "good" airline?

First off United is a 3-4 year pay cut from most regionals. You have no aircraft orders and are setting yourself up for a merger, that is the big bankrupcy plan? I don't think if I were you I would bash other airlines b/c UAL lowered the bar just as much if not more than anybody else.

 

[Question4U]

Question4U:

1) Who do you work for?
2) Which regionals have better overall pay than UAL? I would like to know where I should be sending an application!
3) So if we get block or better, that makes for a "good" airline?

I guess if you come from Mesa you are right UAL is the "dream job"

 

[ualdriver]

First off United is a 3-4 year pay cut from most regionals.

So is UPS. You had better get over to the Cargo thread and tell them they're lowering the bar over there.

You have no aircraft orders and are setting yourself up for a merger, that is the big bankrupcy plan?

Got it. If an airline currently has no aircraft orders, that's a harbinger of bad things to come! Just get hired by the airline with the most aircraft orders and you're set for life!! And if you think UAL is the only airline looking for a merger partner, then I suggest you search around the major airlines section of Yahoo! finance at a minimum. We're just the only airline that has a CEO that talks about it very openly.

I don't think if I were you I would bash other airlines b/c UAL lowered the bar just as much if not more than anybody else.

Let's see......we built upon the gains made by Union pilots in 2000 and had the highest paid pilots in the industry (by a few % points). Other pilots at certain other airlines massively undercut our industry leading wages and used that as a competitive advantage to bleed us to death. We (as an industry) are forced to match these new low LCC wages or become uncompetitive.

So knowing all of this, the airline that had the highest paid pilots in the industry AND hoped others would follow are responsible for lowering the bar? Yup. You're right!

Further, I don't care if you're a Mesa pilot or a Space Shuttle pilot. I never said UAL is anyone's dream job. In fact, I hope NO ONE applies to UAL. It will make it that much easier for us to negotiate higher wages.

You still haven't mentioned which airline you work for?

 

[Question4U]

So is UPS. You had better get over to the Cargo thread and tell them they're lowering the bar over there.



Yes UPS is a pay cut for a year, but you make it up the second year at $112 and hour (a little bit better than $50). I understand you are really excited with your new dream job it's O.k but I don't think you should be saying that regionals and virgin are lowering the bar becuase you are right there. UAL is no better than the rest thats all I am trying to say.

 

[ualdriver]

Yes UPS is a pay cut for a year, but you make it up the second year at $112 and hour (a little bit better than $50).

OK, so any airline that doesn't have $100/hr+ second year wages isn't worth going to for a regional pilot? So why are you just lumping UAL in that category?

I understand you are really excited with your new dream job

My "new" dream job? WTF are you talking about?

it's O.k but I don't think you should be saying that regionals and virgin are lowering the bar becuase you are right there.

Yeah, we're "right there" with Virgin's $95/hour Captains with no retirement.

UAL is no better than the rest thats all I am trying to say.

Depends on how you define "the rest." If you're putting airlines like Virgin or regional airlines in "the rest" category, I beg to differ. I suspect most pilots would.

I won't be responding further to any of your posts until you tell us all which airline you work for.

 

[Lear70]

If you've made a total (nominal?) annualized return of 18% on average over the past 15 years, you are probably in the 99th+ percentile of all investors. You should consider a career in professional investing. Miller beats the S&P 500 for about 10 years (and he didn't even make 18% annualized) and he's legendary. You've trounced it for 15 years, a feat the vast, vast majority of professionals have not even accomplished. You're in the wrong business.

Yeah, I've heard that before, and I really think it's stupid, blind, dumb luck, good mutual funds in our 401(k) accounts, and a little piece of advice my great uncle gave me before he died (he left about $600 Million to his 3 kids and wife when he went so he knew a little something about it).

The minute I really tried to focus on it, I'd probably lose my shirt...

Well, if one's argument for shifting everything into foreign equities is to escape the inevitable decline (or crash or whatever) of the U.S. equity market (due to the decline of the dollar, the housing bubble, peak oil, whatever), one might want to consider a different path as foreign markets (using the EAFE as a proxy) have about a .7 correlation with U.S. equities right now, and historically have also been highly correlated. Perhaps something with a negative correlation to U.S. equities is in order if we're headed toward economic difficulty and one is seeking to avoid it?

Historically speaking, my foreign investments in small cap funds have paid more than individual U.S. stock investments, so I trust them where they're parked and they're spread out over several different sectors and currencies so I'm pretty evenly divested if one performs poorly, plus I've changed over to a more conservative strategy until things stabilize a bit (think bonds and such).

 

[Andy]

2 major points:

1) It is IMPOSSIBLE to time the market. Impossible. The pros can't do it. The pros don't even know other pros that can do it consistently. I said "experts" predicting 13 of the last 3 recessions tongue in cheek as many of these so called experts are charlatans who look and sound good on TV. Sorry man, not taking your advice to sell the house and sell stock. In fact, I'll be buying on the dips.

2) I have over 208 years of U.S. stock market, Bond, T-Bill, and Gold history sitting next to me on my desk that I refer to when the latest talking head talks about "the big one." The squiggly lines go down. The squiggly lines go up. And the trend has gone up overall- for 208 years. In "recent" history (the past 100 years), we've been through 2 World Wars, Vietnam, Korea, stagflation, the "nifty fifty," an internet bubble, 9/11, and that's just off the top of my head. Even if you're right about the unwinding of credit due to a housing bubble, the market (housing, stock, bond, whatever) will correct, and we'll come out the other end chugging along. Sorry, not buying economic castrophe yet considering this economy has made it through far worse.

Good luck with your predictions, though. I hope they make you a lot of money!

Keeping it off topic for a bit longer.

I don't try to time the markets. I shifted from long to short this last spring. Initially lost on the short side, but it's been extremely profitable since late May. Of course, I only went short specific sectors - home builders and mortgage originators, not the entire markets. BZH, LEN, PHM, CFC, DSL worked out well; have since closed my shorts on the home builders and CFC (not enough left there). Continue to hold short positions on DSL and have now shorted momentum stocks (AMZN, AAPL, RIMM, GOOG). The momo short isn't working yet, but I'm not an in & out trader.

If there's one stock to take a close look at shorting, it's DSL - Downey Savings and Loan. Can't short it anymore; it's on the Reg SHO threshold list, but you can still buy puts. I'd go with Feb or May 08; I'm not good at timing it in the short run, but can tell you that DSL's a zero. If you look at their monthly NPAs (nonperforming assets), assets, and interest rate spread trends, you'll see why.
And yes, I've made a lot of money this year.

I'm not calling for economic armageddon, but the vacancy rate on houses for sale is at an all time high, which will drive home prices downward for several years. We have a surplus of housing due to the amount of building done over the last seven years. If you don't mind taking an average 30% haircut on your house (according to Shiller; YMMV), stay put. That's a whole lot of equity to sit back and watch getting vaporized.
Did you notice how smooth this last week was? It's because load factors were about 10-15% below normal. Less people were traveling. There were more shoppers out this last weekend but the average shopper spent less. It's not shaping up to be a very good Christmas season.

Good luck on buying on the dips. I don't think that strategy will fare very well for a while.

If you've made a total (nominal?) annualized return of 18% on average over the past 15 years, you are probably in the 99th+ percentile of all investors. You should consider a career in professional investing. Miller beats the S&P 500 for about 10 years (and he didn't even make 18% annualized) and he's legendary. You've trounced it for 15 years, a feat the vast, vast majority of professionals have not even accomplished. You're in the wrong business.

I know this comment's aimed at Lear70, but managing a small amount of money to produce above average returns is much easier than managing a large amount of money.
Bill Miller definitely won't be beating the S&P this year. Looks like he's down a tad over 10% to date. Of course, he's been long the home builders and Countrywide. They're not what I'd consider to be value stocks.

I shifted everything into international mutual funds with a nice, stable 7% growth on a 10-15 year average about 3 months ago and will likely leave them there until the housing bubble finishes popping and the dollar's decline against foreign currencies stabilizes.

You're OK going overseas for now. Watch out in 2008. The rest of the world's economy will start slowing down and I can see a case for a nasty snapback in the dollar. Right now, it's sinking like a rock, but once other central banks start cutting their interest rates, the dollar will rebound strongly. I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen in spring 2008, but it seems like my timing is usually a few months too early.

 

[FLYLOW22]

If you had (and stayed), you'd be an RJ captain in the mid 900's seniority out of 2800 pilots. You'd be getting 14-15 days off per month, 80-95K/year depending on overtime or creative bidding and 75% match on your 401(k) and at least some job security.

You deserve more for the work that you do.

 

[SDF2BUF2MCO]

Keeping it off topic for a bit longer.


I'm not calling for economic armageddon, but the vacancy rate on houses for sale is at an all time high, which will drive home prices downward for several years. We have a surplus of housing due to the amount of building done over the last seven years. If you don't mind taking an average 30% haircut on your house (according to Shiller; YMMV), stay put. That's a whole lot of equity to sit back and watch getting vaporized.
Did you notice how smooth this last week was? It's because load factors were about 10-15% below normal. Less people were traveling. There were more shoppers out this last weekend but the average shopper spent less. It's not shaping up to be a very good Christmas season.

I concur on the house thing. If people have a lot of equity tied up in their house then they potentially will take a bath if they sell within the next few years. For the $40,000 millionaires who can't afford their $2,000 a month mortgage the banks will be caught holding the bag (and it will trickle down to the average Joe).
One thing that is lingering out there is the impact of increasing our "open borders" will have on the US economy - at least for the average Joe.
Getting back to wages, etc. Like others of said when they can't find enough people to fly the planes employers will get the message. If they won't increase the wages they'll lower the quals and/or find help from outside the US. The politicians will put up a gratuitous fight.

 

[Crossky]

Let's look at the requirements in general:

Degree - you can buy that

Certificates - can be bought

ratings - for sale

experience - can't be bought

The only part of the equation that can't be financed by rich parents or bad student loans is being tossed by the regionals. It sure as he!! isn't coming out of their pockets.

PIPE

Easy now PIPE. I totally disagree with your glass is half empty asessment. Myself, and most others like me, earned my degree, certs and ratings, with lots of effort, dedication, and comittment to acheiving those goals. Sure, my Dad and my great Aunt (neither of whom were rich by any means), and I (summer jobs) paid for it, but someone had to. But it wasn't a cake walk, and it won't be in the future. If it is, the school or flight school isn't worth it.

What's changing is the amount of 'experience' at which can competatively be hired at and become a Captain at. Whether the safety record suffers at the Regionals is a question that will be answered over time (I fear it will suffer).

If the amount of 'experience' one needs decreases the level of wet Comm ME ticket, then so be it. Every CA becomes a check airman, the training failure rates skyrocket, and the regionals improve pay, contract, QOL, and tout those features at the job fairs to attract pilots who have more experience than the 'new normal'.

I do agree that real experience can't be bought. But at least one of the two pilots will have at least 1300 more hours of 'experience' than the FNG in the right seat. All this, coming soon in an RJ in which you'll be a passenger in!