Looks like DAL/NWA

[Max Powers]

Occam, FDJ, and others,

Has anyone figured out how this deal makes financial sense for anyone other than maybe AirFrance / KLM?

Delta earlier announced some sort of a partnership with AirFrance that sounded like codeshare, but was obviously a whole lot more based on AirFrance's donation of Heathrow slots.

If we knew who benefitted, we could probably put more of this puzzle together.

Also - what about scope? Occam brings up the Airlinks and Connection carriers. I'm not sure who this will be a bloodbath for, what about these factors?
- Delta wants out of 50 seat contracts that are not voidable. They renegotiated with Republic holdings to upgrade their E135/145's for E170's to get out of 50 seat obligations
- Delta's VP of Ops said he likes the CRJ700/900 as a stop gap until the new generation 100 seat dreamliner tech airplane is brought to market
- NWA is parking some DC-9's. Obviously that airplane is close in capability to a big RJ, even if the -9 is much more comfortable.
- We all know ALPA's history on outsourcing, talk tough and then "surprise"

I floated the idea of a merger involving the connection / airlink carriers too based on a fleet type merger (staple) with date of acquisition fences/bidding and DOH longevity. No one was very interested.

Anyone else want to see "one list" result from this merger? With everyone brought to the negotiating table with "one" management, seems like there is an opportunity to get some flying back to "mainline" with the eventual goal of someday all flying being performed by pilots on "the" seniority list.

As is always the case the difference between opportunity and furlough is going to be scope.

Every Nobel economist has said "the money is in the deal itself" in the long run it is bad for everyone and I mean everyone.

 

[General Lee]

What if 100+ DC9's are parked?

I am sure the NWA guys want their 744s fenced, maybe up to 5 years from DAL pilots. We can do the same to the DC9s--fence them down. If it comes from their own fleet, and we all know about it, then they can deal with it. Maybe a 5 year fence on that too will do.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[filejw]

Well you can wish for any type fence or list you want but in the end an arbitrator will decide.

 

[General Lee]

They suggested the first step had already been taken, which is what I assumed weeks ago when Comair's flying got disproportionately whacked. Delta is at the low limit of the RJ flying it has to pay for.

Sure seems like there are already quite a few long layovers because they are not moving the airplane on days with low load factors.

I was impressed that they have several plans for 2008 with a lot of flexibility in there to be proactive.

You put all the pieces together and if the NWA deal happens, those 9's are parked unless there is really a need for them. Delta's already fat on similar aircraft and wants the domestic market down by 6 points.

The 76 seat RJ is unfortunately perfect for those routes and can squeeze 52-60% more revenue than a 50 seater on around 15% higher costs. Not to mention when you pull a Douglas jet out and stick an RJ in the Company hopes to get more revenue by restricting the supply of seat miles.

... and I'm still beating the drum for one list, jeesh, I'd love to just let it go, but it keeps chasing me around....

10:53 DAL Delta Air Lines: Conf call summary (14.97 +0.12) -Update-

On Q&A, co says if the economy continues to weaken they do have a lot of airplanes with very low ownership costs so they can change the utilization of the fleet, which they aren't saying they would necessarily ground airplanes, but certainly they would fly less on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Saturdays, which are historically the laggards in industry RASM days.



When you say DL wants the domestic portion down 6%, that very well may mean mostly RJs, since the routes NWA and DL have mainline planes on now have passed the RJ scrutiny test. They could have placed RJs on those routes now if they wanted (they have plenty to use), but for some reason they have mainline planes. Even the DC9s are on routes that NWA considers worthy of those planes. Yes, they are parking more DC9-30s, but they have 68 DC9-40s and -50s that are larger than the -30s and can a lot more than 76 pax. They are their for a reason, while the DC9-30 routes are currently being replaced by Comapss E175s and Messaba CR9s.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Well you can wish for any type fence or list you want but in the end an arbitrator will decide.

Sorry, I have heard this is probably pre-packaged via both MECs. I have no doubt your 744 guys are at the top of the combined list, and I would think your DC9 guys (FOs) and 747 SO's are at the bottom---or at least most of them. (maybe ahead of recent newhires at both airlines) Even a NWA 747 Captain I talked to recently said he heard the "pre packaged" rumor himself. We'll see.....

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[123]

General,

I have to agree with you on the idea of a pre-packaged deal and we (line pilots) probably wont have any say. The senior bubbas will be taken care of and the junior's will just have to learn to deal with it (beside, we don't really know what is best for us anyway). Oh well, just another bump in the road.

 

[Fly4hire]

Sorry, I have heard this is probably pre-packaged via both MECs.

There is no "deal" to speak of. You might want to check your hearing.

I have no doubt your 744 guys are at the top of the combined list, and I would think your DC9 guys (FOs) and 747 SO's are at the bottom---or at least most of them.

They would be wherever their seniority in a integrated list would put them. Just like DAL we have some senior people bidding very high in junior seats for QOL reasons.

 

[~~~^~~~]

When you say DL wants the domestic portion down 6%, that very well may mean mostly RJs,.... while the DC9-30 routes are currently being replaced by Comapss E175s and Messaba CR9s.

Bye Bye--General Lee

General, again, short of bankruptcy, Delta can't reduce RJ flying that it is bound by contract to operate. If Delta has to pay for the operation, they are going to fly the thing.

Just like Comair's (Delta owned) jets the accumulator in the system is the airplanes that are cheap to park.

I REALLY, really hope you are right, but the crystal ball seems to be getting pretty clear on what a NWA / DAL merger means.

 

[Benjamin Dover]

Well, Lee Moak continues to BRAG that he can stop any merger. If he wants this to go forward, he had better restore some of the lost wages/rules, save jobs, and tighten scope. Can he do it? I don't know---but he brags that he can stop a merger. Let's see him play hardball. And, job protections are a MUST.


Bye Bye--General Lee

I wonder if Lee Moak ever saw the photo of the Tiananmen Square protestor in front of the Chinese tanks in 1989.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/d8/Tianasquare.jpg

 

[JoeMerchant]

I REALLY, really hope you are right, but the crystal ball seems to be getting pretty clear on what a NWA / DAL merger means.

What is your crystal ball saying on what the merger means?