Likelihood of death in General Aviation

[Flightjock30]

I am a Regional Airline Pilot with a civilian background. I flew plenty of single engine and twin engine GA Aircraft over the years and lately have wanted to get back into flying single engine GA aircraft as a hobby.

My question is: What is the likelihood of dying in a single engine piston airplane (lets say a Cessna 172) if you pursue the hobby for an entire lifetime? Lets say you start flying GA Aircraft again at 27 yrs old (my current age) and want to fly until age 65. If I fly 1-2 times a week for about 10 hours per month over the next 38 years is there a low, medium, or high chance of eventually getting into a fatal accident?

Keep in mind that I am an ATP and have over 3500 hours of flight time currently. Also, I would be flying exclusively in VFR conditions.

Just wanted to hear some thoughts from seasoned GA pilots who have been flying for 10+ years.

 

[Swass]

Not very high, but I would say several times more likely than your current gig.

 

[Amish RakeFight]

Well keeping it strictly VFR is a huge plus. Flying over flatlands as opposed to dense city areas, lowers the odds even more when it comes to losing your only engine.

It really depends on how you go about your VFR flying.
...but do you really want to fly GA that much outside of your regional gig?

 

[A Squared]

Just wanted to hear some thoughts from seasoned GA pilots who have been flying for 10+ years.

You won't. They're all dead.

 

[Amish RakeFight]

You won't. They're all dead.

Aren't you cheery.

ASquared, you can do better than that.

 

[Seadogrun]

I've heard people say it's about the same risk as riding a motorcycle.

 

[woutlaw]

The 2006 Nall report shows a GA fatality rate of 1.4 fatal accidents per 100,000 hours flown in 2005.

http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/06nall.pdf

Lots of good details about how GA guys kill themselves in there.

 

[avbug]

Liklihood presupposes that you're likely to die. If the presumption is that you're likely to die in a light airplane, then rest easy. You're not. What is the liklihood of dying in a light airplane? Unlikely.

Why make a presumption of guesswork? Liklihood...mighta, woulda, coulda, why guess? Your ability to live or die is up to you, not chance. How likely are you to die in a light airplane? You're in the best position to answer that. How likely are you to let it happen, or to kill yourself?

Why worry about death? Of the millions of possiblities, that's the least of your worries. It's pain free, tax free, at at least for your end, relatively cost effective. Worrying about death is pointless.

Worrying if you'll look like a complete putz for time and all eternity of you make a bonehead move and screw up...that's worth some concern. Worrying about a lifetime of debilitation from doing something inherently stupid like inadvertant VMC into IMC, or running out of fuel, or one of the many other stupid pilot tricks that kill and maim the less intelligent every year...that should worry you. All under your control, but should worry you none the less. It should worry you to the point that you don't let it happen to you.

Will I die in an airplane? I couldn't care less. Will I live in an airplane? That I care about, and that's where my own concern lies, because so long as I'm alive in that airplane, I'm doing my utmost to be the most effective I can possibly be. That I control, and if I were to be concerned in the least about death, then my focus needs to be on what I can do as a living, breathing, flying individual...the decision to prevent dying in an airplane is mine. Yours, too.

 

[Bullitt]

Aren't you cheery.

ASquared, you can do better than that.

I dunno, I laughed my azz off at that one. It is one of those days though.......

 

[Flightjock30]

Thanks for the replies. I just wanted everyones opinion.

I enjoy taking ski trips in a rented 172 to flyin airports in the winter in Vermont and Maine. I also enjoy heading out to Cape Cod, Block Island, Newport RI, Marthas Vineyard, etc. in the summer months (of course with a life vest, raft, and flares and in communication with either sound reporting service or ATC at all times while over water).

Long cross countries are fun too, but for these I expect to file IFR for some of the legs due to weather.

In the end, I just needed some reassurance to get back into the cockpit of the mighty 172.

hehe.