Likelihood of death in General Aviation

[Buckeye]

I have been flying GA for the last fourteen years plus as well as flying freight for a living and flying warbirds on the airshow circuit for that last five years. Its been awesome, nothing like flying out to breakfast on a week day with some buddies while evryone else is at work. I fly in the MidWest and fly mostly VFR and we have lots of corn and soy bean fields. It is safe as you make it, be careful and fly smart.

 

[Way2Broke]

I have been flying GA for the last fourteen years plus as well as flying freight for a living and flying warbirds on the airshow circuit for that last five years. Its been awesome, nothing like flying out to breakfast on a week day with some buddies while evryone else is at work. I fly in the MidWest and fly mostly VFR and we have lots of corn and soy bean fields. It is safe as you make it, be careful and fly smart.

Lots of corn, and soy bean fields..... you forgot about the women with two teeth. Those can be the most deadly. Hey, I'm just getting the facts out there.

 

[TOOL CRIB]

I am a Regional Airline Pilot with a civilian background. I flew plenty of single engine and twin engine GA Aircraft over the years and lately have wanted to get back into flying single engine GA aircraft as a hobby.

My question is: What is the likelihood of dying in a single engine piston airplane (lets say a Cessna 172) if you pursue the hobby for an entire lifetime? Lets say you start flying GA Aircraft again at 27 yrs old (my current age) and want to fly until age 65. If I fly 1-2 times a week for about 10 hours per month over the next 38 years is there a low, medium, or high chance of eventually getting into a fatal accident?

Keep in mind that I am an ATP and have over 3500 hours of flight time currently. Also, I would be flying exclusively in VFR conditions.

Just wanted to hear some thoughts from seasoned GA pilots who have been flying for 10+ years.

The very fact that you're worried about it will be a huge factor in keeping you alive. Go here http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/query.asp and read up about some accidents. You'll find that most of them are quite foolish. Flying VFR only in a C172 (which is almost idiot proof) is about as safe as it can be. Your only worries are mechanical failures or a mid-air collision which are both very slim chances.

I have about 1800 hrs in GA planes (mostly flight instructing) and I've had one engine failure. A couple alternators, a vacuum pump or too, and one engine that quit doing power-off stalls (started right back up). Just fly safe, stay over open areas as best you can (or climb as high as you can), practice lots of simulated engine-out landings, and avoid single-engine IFR where you actually have to shoot approaches to land.

 

[erj-145mech]

You are more likely to perish is an automobile accident on the way to or from the airport, than in an aircraft accident.
So walk!

 

[A Squared]

You are more likely to perish is an automobile accident on the way to or from the airport, than in an aircraft accident.
So walk!

Absolute Hor$hit. While I am a fan of GA, it is significantly more dangerous, statistically speaking, than riding in an automobile. Sure there are more automobile deaths than GA deaths, but when you compare the relative amount of hours spent in autos vs airplanes and the miles travelled, GA comes out second best.

I understand that it is true that flying in an airliner is much safer than auto travel on a fatalities/mile travelled basis. but the airlines are a very differnet deal than GA.

edit: The numbers.

As was stated earlier, fatal GA accidents occur at the rate of 1.4 per 100,000 hours. By comparison, in the US, fatal automobile accidents occur at a rate of 1.3 per 100 Million Vehicle miles. Now accidents per hour don't directly compare to accidents per mile, but in order for GA flying to be safer than riding in an automobile on a per mile basis, one would have to assume that the average GA airplane flew much faster than 1000 mph.

 

[skyaddict]

Yeah good point about GA not being as safe as driving. I think airline flying is something like 100x safer than pure GA (not frac/corporate) or so, i.e well ahead of automobiles, but automobiles are still *quite a bit* safer than GA. Now, though the case can be overblown (we have a lot more control over driving risks than is sometimes made in this comparison), in driving we are highly vulnerable to complete morons who pass us or intesrect our route at intersections, dozens, perhaps hundreds of times per car trip. In flying, this close proximity to a moron might happen from time to time in a traffic pattern but otherwise we can go trip after trip without any exposure to this routine automobile risk.

If one eliminates pretty blatant dangerous activities in airplanes such as low-level maneuvering other than takeoff and landing, scud running or VFR into IMC, yada yada, one eliminates something on the order of 80% plus of fatal accidents, I think. (I'm bandying the stats loosely but it's close enough). That elimination probably gets GA flying on an even par with automobile driving- even assuming one is a safety minded driver.

But being ATP's and pro-pilots means nothing (in terms of risk stats) once we leave the tight bounds of 121 type flying, so once we step into a GA cockpit, it's up to us to create and follow our own mental FOM/SOPs for GA, so to speak.

 

[firstthird]

Not to mention things like buying an electrical backup artificial horizon if all your plane has is a vacuum driven one.

There are things you can do to lower your risk to the big killers, many of which you've already done by being an ATP.

I'd talk to some other airline guys that are at your local airport and see how they handle the transition from 121 flying with all of its backups and safeguards (MELs, dispatch, etc) and part 91 flying with the extra rope it allows (0/0 takeoffs for one). Maybe they use 500/1 as a minimum instead of 200/.5 since they are single pilot, etc.

also, if you are married/kids, you might want to check into some life insurance and see what/if any effect GA flying will have on your ability to purchase it at a good price. If you are single, not so much a player.

I will say that it seems like many more 121 pilots die flying 91 for fun than do during their day job, despite the vastly lower amount of flight time/miles. I'd think that most big airlines lose a pilot or two every couple of years to a GA crash while most American airlines rarely have the fatal accidents (knock on wood). We lost 2 pilots to a mid-air during a photo run 6 months or so ago (retired but still part of the family).

 

[avbug]

If one eliminates pretty blatant dangerous activities in airplanes such as low-level maneuvering other than takeoff and landing,...

As one who has been employed to engage in low level maneuvering in general aviation airplanes since I was a teenager, you can stop right there and re-examine that comment made in ignorance.

 

[skyaddict]

Fair enough, my statement was poorly written-- low level maneuvering is not dangerous done right and with proper training, but it has a very high accident rate by those not so qualified (as highlighted in an AOPA study).

 

[Goose Egg]

For the record, I hope to be involved in GA for the rest of my life (ASES, CFI-H, and FAI badges, here I come!!). I've got nothing against flying ASELs in Day/VFR. As I stated in another thread, however, flying ASELs in low IMC is something that makes me a little uneasy and I hope it's something that I don't have to do for too much longer. I don't have the same consternation for night VFR in an ASEL, but even that is a risk that I don't expose myself to on a regular basis.

In any case, I don't think GA is inherently dangerous, however, it requires discipline and solid risk management and decision making skills. (Which is why it may be regarded as such a "daredevil" activity by the general public; because it requires discipline, risk management, and decision making skills that they don't have and don't know how to get! But I digress...) Be careful, be safe, don't take stupid risks, always leave yourself an "out," and you should be fine.

-Goose