Leaving Jetblue for anywhere

[get2flyin]

Oh relax MCDU, it will be over soon. We are both US Airways pilots. You should be happy, your raise is going to be bigger than mine. I plan on not being angry one way or the other.

Just ignore the trolls. Nothing is gained by trying to talk facts so just leave the animals in the zoo.

 

[DCAA320]

Oh relax MCDU, it will be over soon. We are both US Airways pilots. You should be happy, your raise is going to be bigger than mine. I plan on not being angry one way or the other.

Hey Hpilot, I offer to buy you a couple beers if we are ever on a layover, and I am an Eastie. One of your guys bought us (East Crew) dinner somewhere in Caribbean a while ago.

 

[Hpilot]

Hey Hpilot, I offer to buy you a couple beers if we are ever on a layover, and I am an Eastie. One of your guys bought us (East Crew) dinner somewhere in Caribbean a while ago.

Thanks, sounds good. I'm sorry about all the fighting between the two groups, but think the merger was the best for all of us. I feel the same about the current American merger. An east captain moved me to first class when I was jumpseating. First class guy. Take care.

 

[captain caveman]

Captain caveman wrote:



Let's look at some factual history regarding our industry in the past decade:

1) 911-All legacies furloughed. WN, AT, Alliegent, ATA, Frontier and Jetblue all expanded greatly... Frontier did furlough initially but then recalled all pretty quickly and expanded until high gas and credit dried up. These are all domestic carriers... they all expanded big time while worldwide footprint carriers furluoghed.

2) High gas-look to #1 above.

3) Credit market evaporates- look to #1 above.

4) SARS- hit all carriers that had exposure in Asia very badly, overnight.

5) Great Recession- DAL still hasn't hired (or recalled in years). UAL is just begining and so is Airways. AA still not hiring or recalling. Jetblue, WN and until they went away Airtran expanded.

Do I need to go on? I'm not saying that when things are stroking throughout the world that the legacies are unstoppable and finally a huge money making operation. But shut down part of the planet and they hurt. I pointed out 4 huge issues that were hugely impactful for the domestic airline and US economy that caused huge shrinkage to the legacies, but yet we saw a huge growth period for the domestics... so I disagree that we'd all be hosed.

I will restate my original thread... the legacies have a huge international risk that the LCC's don't have, as much... history proves that the legacies will shell out a minimum of 10% of thier list if things go bad... when your lists are 10,000+, it's a big furlough number...

At least at WN and B6, it's been proven that the rednecks still will fly to Disney, Bike week and the Daytona if the economy sucks... FACT!

Tail

PS- did you see the latest on the bird flu jumping countries???? Remember SARS???? or the previous Bird Flu????

http://www.france24.com/en/20130424-taiwan-confirms-first-h7n9-bird-flu-case-outside-china

Those 10,000 number lists aren't that big when you consider what the lists looked like at peak before bankruptcies and consolidation. Never in airline history has there been so much change as there has been in the last few years. When you consider the number of retirements coming those lists thin out considerably in the coming years.

Also did you consider how Delta/Northwest fared when Japan had the tsunami and Europe is having a financial crisis? I'm not saying the majors won't furlough. The industry has changed so much, that in the next downturn, I don't think history will necessarily repeat itself. Your new Delta isn't the same Northwest that furloughed you ten years ago. Good luck with your choice.

 

[tailhookah]

capt cvman wrote:

Those 10,000 number lists aren't that big when you consider what the lists looked like at peak before bankruptcies and consolidation.

You mean the raping of CBA's under years and years of force majeur that the courts allowed??? The consolidation you speak of was the mass outsourcing allowed when the scope sections of those contracts were raped to allow a huge 50 seat takeover of mainline routes... we are all still dealing w/ that. No Alpa's fault, but the courts that allowed F.M. to continue for years after 9/11.

The industry has changed so much, that in the next downturn, I don't think history will necessarily repeat itself. Your new Delta isn't the same Northwest that furloughed you ten years ago. Good luck with your choice.

Don't be an idiot... the new Delta is no different. Richard Anderson is still running the operation (or the new) and he's the same D_ick who furloughed me under a FM no furlough cause. Don't be blind CCman... or naive... or both. Keep drink that purple punch dude if you think this industry has changed... the $ still is the major source of all issues. If the $'s go down, so will the contracts or pilot rosters... wake up man.

Tailhookah

 

[captain caveman]

capt cvman wrote:



You mean the raping of CBA's under years and years of force majeur that the courts allowed??? The consolidation you speak of was the mass outsourcing allowed when the scope sections of those contracts were raped to allow a huge 50 seat takeover of mainline routes... we are all still dealing w/ that. No Alpa's fault, but the courts that allowed F.M. to continue for years after 9/11.



Don't be an idiot... the new Delta is no different. Richard Anderson is still running the operation (or the new) and he's the same D_ick who furloughed me under a FM no furlough cause. Don't be blind CCman... or naive... or both. Keep drink that purple punch dude if you think this industry has changed... the $ still is the major source of all issues. If the $'s go down, so will the contracts or pilot rosters... wake up man.

Tailhookah

I stand by my quotes. And when I say that history may not repeat itself, I am referring to the "LCC" and Southwest. You ought not feel any safer at JetBlue. Look at what just happened to the Airtran pilots. The new Delta is different. And so is the new United and soon American. They no longer have a cost disadvantage, they are more diversified and have mass retirements coming. I'm not going to call you an idiot or tell you to wake up, Tailhookah. Again, good luck with your choice and make it by looking forward, not backwards.

 

[igneousy2]

5) Great Recession- DAL still hasn't hired (or recalled in years). UAL is just begining and so is Airways. AA still not hiring or recalling.

...

Which is eactly why you might want to consider moving if you are stuck on the bottom of one of the LCC's.

You have to be contrarian. The SWA, JBLU, AS guys that are having the best careers (short upgrade, great quality of life) are the one that got on when SWA, JBLU, and AS were looked at as stopping places on the way to one of the "majors". They got the short upgrades and the rocket up the seniority list.

Now the shoe is on the other foot, the rapid growth is gone and now SWA, JBLU, etc are just like any other major out there.

The younger pilots that get on with US/AA or UAL or DAL in the next 1-2 years will have phenomenal careers.

 

[FurloughedAgain]

Good crystal ball.

I was 23 when I was hired by USAir in 99. It's easy to say I'm a circus clown for not going back when recalled in 07. (I feel like one!) But the fact is, you just can't predict success or failure in this business.

 

[DCAA320]

Good crystal ball.

I was 23 when I was hired by USAir in 99. It's easy to say I'm a circus clown for not going back when recalled in 07. (I feel like one!) But the fact is, you just can't predict success or failure in this business.

Where are you now? No one has a crystal ball.

 

[Smarta$$]

Where are you now? No one has a crystal ball.

You are right, but many THINK they have a crystal ball...

 

[AMRCostUnit]

5) Great Recession- DAL still hasn't hired (or recalled in years). UAL is just begining and so is Airways. AA still not hiring or recalling.

To update that last sentence....ALL furloughs have been offered recall and word around here is hiring off the street in September.

 

[tailhookah]

To update that last sentence....ALL furloughs have been offered recall and word around here is hiring off the street in September.

But the furloughs do have recall rights before the newhires... I think there are about 300 recalls that have first right to class dates... I will probably be in one of those class dates.

tail

 

[AMRCostUnit]

True. Quite a few deferred recall but they have been out some 11, yes 11 years so they have made other arrangements and most likely are in a better place but want to keep their options open. You have to be on the property (and stay for a year) to shares in the equity stake, so that forced some guys on the fence to undefer.

Now that the whole list has been offered recall the deferrals have a 3 year clock started when they have to make the final decision.

Also keep in mind that these guys are close to 50 years old. We are an old bunch over here. Young guys in the first hiring wave are going to have a wild ride.

 

[tailhookah]

I am a jetlbue CA at 9 year pay. I am 44. I plan on coming back, mostly... it will depend on what's happening at the time. But conventional wisdom says to come back. Us furloughed guys that haven't come back aren't all old farts. Many guys in my class still haven't returned and are younger than me. I just talked to my Delta recall rep and he said they may run recall furlough classes before they start new hire training... so maybe once the newhires start most or all the recalls will be back. I was furloughed 12/26/2001 and I have until the end of 2015 to come back but I can't bypass anymore... so I have to go back when offered class or I am done, but my recall is valid through the end of '15...

We got 10 years full bypass and then 4 additional years w/ recall rights but no bypass... I am in the final 4 right now. Recall rights, but can't bypass anymore. Most of us are in that boat, but there were some furloughs later than me that may still be in the first 10 years of unlimited bypass...

There does not have to be a new hire class to recall... they can run pure recall classes and it seems they might just do that late in the year.

Tailhookah

 

[redflyer65]

I am a jetlbue CA at 9 year pay. I am 44. I plan on coming back, mostly... it will depend on what's happening at the time. But conventional wisdom says to come back. Us furloughed guys that haven't come back aren't all old farts. Many guys in my class still haven't returned and are younger than me. I just talked to my Delta recall rep and he said they may run recall furlough classes before they start new hire training... so maybe once the newhires start most or all the recalls will be back. I was furloughed 12/26/2001 and I have until the end of 2015 to come back but I can't bypass anymore... so I have to go back when offered class or I am done, but my recall is valid through the end of '15...

We got 10 years full bypass and then 4 additional years w/ recall rights but no bypass... I am in the final 4 right now. Recall rights, but can't bypass anymore. Most of us are in that boat, but there were some furloughs later than me that may still be in the first 10 years of unlimited bypass...

There does not have to be a new hire class to recall... they can run pure recall classes and it seems they might just do that late in the year.

Tailhookah

I'd take the recall Tail.