Leaving Jetblue for anywhere

[Whine Lover]

You will NEVER be "one step ahead of this industry".

No one ever has, or ever will be. Although I commend you for trying to be as have I and /or everyone else here on FI.

That being said: What is it that would have you thinking about leaving JB ?

And....here's how I made a similar decision about 15 years ago:

- List all quality of life issues, pro and con, with staying vs. leaving for elsewhere.

- List all monetary issues , pro and con, with the same considerations ( and the same assumptions, if necessary.)

Total out all the above and you will have your answer.

Because this is a "start over" type of Industry ....you are gambling on the future.

If what you have now is of value ( again, WHY are you considering this? ) then you should stay the course.

It basically comes down to this:

".. have you fired six shots or only five? Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement maybe you've lost track of that yourself...you've got to ask yourself one question: "Do you feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?"


Good Luck with it Sir, and best wishes.

YKW


P.S. - A simpler analogy...."A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." Unless the bird in your hand is pecking your eyes out, crapping in your hand, and is about to die from Avian flu.....

 

[General Lee]

The big draw to the legacies now is the retirement numbers. If you can get in in the first third of the hiring, you may have very good QOL, variety in flying (INTL vs Domestic), and may spend very little time on reserve. Also, pay has gone up at all of the legacies. At DL by 2015, new hire pay will be $71 an hour. That's not bad at all. Getting on in the BEGINNING of a hiring wave is a great thing. Being the last one hired, may not be.

There may be some other mergers out there, but waiting for the one that suits your needs may never happen. If you live near a legacy hub and don't plan to move, throw in your app there.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[johnsonrod]

With 275 777-X aircraft likely coming over the next 10-15 years, Emirates should also be on your list if you don't mind the heat!

 

[tailhookah]

The sharks are circling the boat at JB, whether other airlines, our management, the economy.

First of all, the sharks are circling everywhere... I'd be much more worried if I was a F9 guy than B6. Right now, I'd say that mergers are over for awhile (except maybe F9, Spirit, Alliegent). UAL, WN and AA have too much on their plates right now to worry about another merger. If DAL picks up B6, we (at B6) are better off being merged into DAL than you starting over at the bottom of the list at DAL when the merger goes down.

But having a good CA seat at B6 and a DAL recall, my fears are risk... what's the risk of staying vs. leaving. Right now it seems like there's no risk to go w/ one of the big three... there wasn't risk when I got hired at NWA in june of 01 either... or was there?

There's always risk in the airline industry. I'd say Delta has much more international risk than Jetblue. Remember 911? SARS? Desert Storm 1? Delta is very exposed in Asia... remember, NWA basically owned a big part of Asia w/ UAL. Now DAL has big exposure to international risk everywhere... Europe... Africa... Asia... S. America... at 12500 pilots, a 5% decrease due to bird flu in Asia or let's say a Korean issue is 625 pilots on the street! It can and will happen again in this industry someday. Even having a seniority # at DAL w/ about 900 guys beneath me and going back to 7th year pay, I have huge fears about being furloughed again.

The retirements are there, I'll give you that. That helps quell my fears about going back, but I guarantee you that Richard Anderson, Parker or UAL guy would dump pilots by the hundreds if they needed to.

Jetblue isn't exposed to that international risk like other majors. Either is WN. We were the only two majors who have expanded during the post 911 aftermath and during the great recession. B6 has proved that we are not exposed nearly as much to even a recession in this country. Our tickets are cheap enough and our clientele has shown that they will still visit grandma and disney when the economy blows.

When your list is big like the big three's it's very easy to either stop hiring or furlough hundreds overnight. Now w/ the pending pilot shortage/demand on the near horizon, it seems cool heads have prevailed but that could change overnight as well.

When I was hired at NWA in june of '01, my class was told we'd be DC9 CA's (at 200+/hr) in 4-5 years and never be furloughed... well we know what happend and don't need to be reminded. Also, if the shortage gets real bad we'll see the retirement age upped to 67... only a matter of time. Throw in a good war w/ Korea and China and a bad worldwide economy when this QE and easy money dries up and woa!!!! Furloughes again! No hiring for years...

An old crusty Eastern DC9 CA at NWA told me before I lenallft on my furlough... Don't get carried away always looking over the fence and seniority is everything in this industry!

He's right. I don't know if I'll go back to DAL. I really hope B6 gets it's $hit together and finally brings our comp. up to industry levels... we'll see.

It's a tough decision. I have a guaranteed seat w/ seniority and 7th year pay and I am having a tough time deciding to go back... if you are on the bottom at B6 though???? I'd go in a heartbeat. But remember that Richard Anderson furloughed me under a No Furlough cause at NWA for 5.5 years... guess who's running DAL?????

Tailhookah

 

[General Lee]

In the past Legacy carriers "specialized" in certain areas Internationally. DL bought the Pan Am routes and was big in Europe. NWA had NRT rights and was big in Asia. When something like the Bird Flu or an economic downturn in Europe came along, there was a lot more risk. Now, consolidation has mixed them together, so a big legacy has multiple strengths, and when one side of the World is hurting, the others can help bring up revenue. It's not as rough on the airline if hot spots come up. Plus, the domestic arena is not as weak as before, and RJ expansion of the past decade is slowly reversing the other way, with 50 seaters leaving, 717s and MD90s coming, etc.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[captain caveman]

Tailhookah,

Don't you think that international exposure can also be a benefit, like portfolio diversification? What if something were to happen domestically? We'd all be hosed.

I left JetBlue in 07 to go to Delta. Had I stayed, I'd be Captain at JetBlue but when I look at where I should retire near the top at Delta, I might be alright.

That furlough left a bad taste in your mouth that might be affecting your decision. The same thing could happen anywhere including jetBlue. I wouldn't let the past affect your decision, but make the best choice with respect to what you think will happen in the future.

I'm not sayin' go back to Delta. Barger cuts costs just like Andersen, though.

Good luck with your choice.

 

[CAMELBUB]

Left blueJet back in 07 ( Sen about 1200ish) ...for a REAL Airline...have not regretted it once. Bluejet WILL implode..get off the Titanic while you can and leave those non-union Lemmings behind!

 

[Deli Guy]

I am very disappointed with JB. Middle of the pack, and its just business. I am working on the logbook.

 

[Wingman10]

By no means am I trying to start anything at all, but I am curious as to why some would leave Jet Blue. From an outside perspective it seems that you are expanding or at the very least nuetral. Everytime that I have had the pleasure of jumpseating it seems that you guys run a nice ship.

Again, not asking for dirty laundry but I am just curious.

 

[Flyby1206]

By no means am I trying to start anything at all, but I am curious as to why some would leave Jet Blue. From an outside perspective it seems that you are expanding or at the very least nuetral. Everytime that I have had the pleasure of jumpseating it seems that you guys run a nice ship.

Again, not asking for dirty laundry but I am just curious.

I'm glad we could be of service on your commute, and thanks for the kind words.

We have an unusually young group of pilots, average age being somewhere in the mid 40s. When looking at ourselves vs the rest of the industry we are lacking in terms of pay/benefits and dont have the projected movement that legacies do with retirements (we have about 100 retirements over the next 10 years).

For me the biggest thing is job security. We are a tiny carrier without a CBA/union in a market where 4 carriers control 85+% of the US market. When one of those carriers comes knocking at our door we have zero protection.