Leave SWA for AA or Delta?

[General Lee]

If you've had one PM that was looking for actual advice and not just trying ways to figure out who you are- I'd be genuinely surprised.

Btw- pot meet kettle. You clearly don't like that Pilots are happy at SWA and ignore that SWA schedules DO NOT EXIST within your domestic lines and our QOL is good.

Said it before- most pilots roll their eyes at us going back and forth about which MAJOR AIRLINE JOB is "better" while they're slugging it out

Well, I'd guess you'd be REALLY surprised. I get them all the time, and I give advice tailored to their questions. I continually have to clear out my mailbox because it is often full.

Notice I don't really touch your trips, but I do say they are productive. That can be great, but the pace can be horrible. When I was younger, I could handle 4 or 5 legs a day, no biggie. Now, I steer clear, trying to do maybe 2 max domestic. That is a problem with your productive trips, they keep you darn busy for 3 days or 4, and then you have to recover. Most of your trips are built that way, for max efficiency (quick turns) and max productivity (30 trips for a 3 day). Sounds great for a few years, not 30. I'm just pointing out a difference, and you and Slaquer get soooo defensive. You are right, some may not like long haul flying or the resulting tiredness that comes from it. But, 30 days off between trips and the ability to bid to other aircraft that might have trips you enjoy are great options to have, something that most LCCs lack.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Not a big poster on this forum but sure do like to stalk. Funny how we see these conversations constantly degenerate into personal jabs. Sad how little respect we have for each other.

Addressing the original question. No, I would not leave Southwest for Delta, or any other airline. In this industry there seems to be a never ending ideal that the grass IS greener at any other airline, and the job I have now could not suck anymore than it does now. Bigger airplanes(heavies) are always better, and Southwest will never play in that sandlot. I have no personal allegiance to Southwest Airlines, but will say that most fail to realize what their management is building right under the industry's nose. What I see happening is a company that realizes they can no longer operate under their original business model, which was as a low cost carrier competing against legacy carriers with much larger networks, better perks for their loyal costumers, and much higher costs.As the legacy airlines have adapted, so has Southwest. Over the last decade, Legacy carriers have adopted business models more in line with the LCCs. Wages, adjusted for inflation, have dropped, contracts with employee groups have focused more on maximizing productivity, and the moral of the employee groups and the understanding that they have a stake in the success of the company has become more of a focal point. (Delta has excelled at this.) Although some will say SWA has lost some of these attributes, it is still very much a part of their business model and culture.

Southwest Airlines purchase/acquisition of AirTran accomplished two things. First, it removed a major competitor in the domestic market, and expanded its domestic route structure. Second, it gave Southwest, although limited, immediate international exposure, exposure that Southwest had shunned up to that point because of their aversion to code shares. This purchase/acquisition, and the ones I feel are to come, are game changers.

Southwest's focus for the last 30+ years has been on building a domestic network that would cover every major metropolitan area in the country...and some not so major. They have done so without a reliance on code shares and contracts with commuter operations. And yet they now carry more passengers domestically than any other US carrier. This is impressive considering approx 20% of Delta's domestic passengers originate from international flights INTO the US. What Southwest has neglected in the past, international, will now become their focus and change the way we look at them forever. BWI, FLL and HOU have been announced as major gateway cities to South America and the Caribbean. And this is just the beginning. It is my guess that Southwest's entrance into the BOS market, and NY via LGA and EWR, are in anticipation of future service to not only the Carribean/South America, but also to Europe( Mr Kelly has voiced such interest.) Future service to Hawaii is still on the table , but not as most had anticipated. During a conversation with one of the business channels in the past year, Mr Kelly expressed Southwest's strong interest in the Pacific Rim/Asia, and Hawaii. In order to gain access to this market, Southwest will most likely acquire Hawaiian Airlines. With a market cap of approx 300 million, the purchase would be inexpensive,and would give Southwest the same overnight presence in the Hawaii, and the markets they serve.(Austraillia, Tahiti, Manila)

Note that all the cities serviced by Hawaiian on the mainland also overlap with SWA. After this is announced, I would expect a large wide body order to be announced. This would most likely be the Boeing 787, giving SWA full access to the Asian markets, with feed to the US markets.

Food for thought before you bail. The probability of Delta doubling in size from 11,800 to 23,600 is very slim. Southwest doubling in size from approx 7400 to 14,000 is not. International expansion will happen and with it even more domestic. Yes Delta has a significant number of retirements, but so does Southwest(Given their size)

Uhhhhh, where do you get DL doubling in size? 5000 retirements are coming in 10 years. Not doubling, losing a huge amount of senior pilots. All 3 big legacies are doing that. At least 1/3 of your pilot group is probably looking at them, primarily because of certain stagnation due to younger AT guys coming in above, and fewer retirements than the big 3.

A couple big things have happened since 9-11 and the resulting BKs. Consolidation is one, creating stronger, more viable legacy carriers. Even SWA buying AT helped the legacies, taking away one more player. Then add fees, including bag and pax fees. They seem acceptable now, and that translates to larger profits and more stability.

The risk of jumping ship has decreased, and getting on early at a big 3 during a hiring wave can totally change a career path for the better, instead of staying put in a well paying, stagnate job. Legacy pay and retirement has improved tremendously in the last couple contracts, and advancement couldn't be better with all 3 legacies losing 5000 pilots each.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

A very well thought out post. I quoted your last paragraph, as I have had this same conversation with fellow pilots, not about leaving, but more about their friends getting hired at a Major, and I believe you hit the nail on the head. When your main selling point is the "massive number of retirements", that doesn't really sell for the person looking for security in an airline. We can only get bigger, and we will.

Except he got the "doubling" part wrong. Each legacy will be retiring 5000 pilots, not doubling in size.

And, you getting bigger depends on how many new INTL terminals you build, but your plane size limits the routes, and other airlines have already beat you to opportunities, like FLL to the Caribbean (Spirit and JB) and Hawaii. Your Hobby experiment will be interesting to watch to Latin America.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

The most frustrating thing about GL is that he is so completely one sided. He doesn't even acknowledge obvious facts if it isn't beneficial to his Delta's awesome and Southwest sucks rant. In responding to me he has:

1. Failed to acknowledge the risk of being at the bottom of a seniority list at company whose bond rating is junk. He brings up over and over again how their balance sheet is improving which is true. That is the equivalent of saying your girlfriend is losing weight without acknowledging that she's fat.

2. In one post he tells me how a guy could make more per hour if he gets to widebody f/o in his 3rd year then a few posts later tell me that a capt upgrade will come way before 50 percentile seniority because widebody F/O goes so senior. He chooses to leave out how there is almost 0 percent chance that a 3rd year f/o will be able to bid widebody. Bottom line a person making a move like the OP was discussing would be losing money for a long time if they moved vs. staying at WN.

3. He beats the massive retirements drum over and over again but fails to tell anyone that DL has very few retirements for the next 5 years. In the next 5 years they will retire about 10 percent total which means todays newhire will be doing SW style flying in the MD88 or 717 for a long time.

4. He won't admit that 40 percent DCI is a problem or that top end joint ventures/codeshares are problematic as well.

I don't think see many WN pilots who won't acknowledge the stagnation here, the higher probability of another merger, or the benefits to a pilot having type of flying choices even if many of us have no interest in long haul international personally.

 

[HowardBorden]

The most frustrating thing about GL is that he is so completely one sided. He doesn't even acknowledge obvious facts if it isn't beneficial to his Delta's awesome and Southwest sucks rant. In responding to me he has:

1. Failed to acknowledge the risk of being at the bottom of a seniority list at company whose bond rating is junk. He brings up over and over again how their balance sheet is improving which is true. That is the equivalent of saying your girlfriend is losing weight without acknowledging that she's fat.

2. In one post he tells me how a guy could make more per hour if he gets to widebody f/o in his 3rd year then a few posts later tell me that a capt upgrade will come way before 50 percentile seniority because widebody F/O goes so senior. He chooses to leave out how there is almost 0 percent chance that a 3rd year f/o will be able to bid widebody. Bottom line a person making a move like the OP was discussing would be losing money for a long time if they moved vs. staying at WN.

3. He beats the massive retirements drum over and over again but fails to tell anyone that DL has very few retirements for the next 5 years. In the next 5 years they will retire about 10 percent total which means todays newhire will be doing SW style flying in the MD88 or 717 for a long time.

4. He won't admit that 40 percent DCI is a problem or that top end joint ventures/codeshares are problematic as well.

I don't think see many WN pilots who won't acknowledge the stagnation here, the higher probability of another merger, or the benefits to a pilot having type of flying choices even if many of us have no interest in long haul international personally.

He's a one trick pony, that's why he keeps incessantly saying the exact same thing over and over again. Get ready for the response where he will chime in with precisely the same diatribe all over again.

 

[General Lee]

The most frustrating thing about GL is that he is so completely one sided. He doesn't even acknowledge obvious facts if it isn't beneficial to his Delta's awesome and Southwest sucks rant. In responding to me he has:

1. Failed to acknowledge the risk of being at the bottom of a seniority list at company whose bond rating is junk. He brings up over and over again how their balance sheet is improving which is true. That is the equivalent of saying your girlfriend is losing weight without acknowledging that she's fat.

2. In one post he tells me how a guy could make more per hour if he gets to widebody f/o in his 3rd year then a few posts later tell me that a capt upgrade will come way before 50 percentile seniority because widebody F/O goes so senior. He chooses to leave out how there is almost 0 percent chance that a 3rd year f/o will be able to bid widebody. Bottom line a person making a move like the OP was discussing would be losing money for a long time if they moved vs. staying at WN.

3. He beats the massive retirements drum over and over again but fails to tell anyone that DL has very few retirements for the next 5 years. In the next 5 years they will retire about 10 percent total which means todays newhire will be doing SW style flying in the MD88 or 717 for a long time.

4. He won't admit that 40 percent DCI is a problem or that top end joint ventures/codeshares are problematic as well.

I don't think see many WN pilots who won't acknowledge the stagnation here, the higher probability of another merger, or the benefits to a pilot having type of flying choices even if many of us have no interest in long haul international personally.

Hmmmmm. Okay, here goes. DL is the highest revenue and highest profit taking airline today. Being "junk bond rated" is temporary, you can read that in the Credit rating agencies notes. Paying off nearly $10 billion in debt in 4 1/2 years is an amazing feat, and think if those numbers keep coming in? Amazing profit potential, and DL stock has out performed SWA this year by a substantial amount. The money guys have it covered.

Next, making more money as a 3rd year wide body FO. If people are leaving at 700-800 per year, the airline will be offering double time (GS) like candy. The next contract talks are approaching, and with a recent $1.3 billion profit in ONE quarter, it's likely a bigger raise will be coming. (Also to attract more junior SWA pilots and other people considering the other legacies). SWA on the other hand, will be entering talks at a defensive post. GK wants his LCC back.

As far as that 6th year Corndog vs the 3rd year Wide body FO, when you are stuck at the bottom, with very little upward movement, you are at a disadvantage. Harder to get desireable trips, weekends off, doing nasty West Texas layovers. That is never fun, and stagnation is the problem. If you hardly ever move up the ladder, your earning potential wanes. 5000 retirements, OTOH, can propel your earning potential, because not every plane size pays the same. Understand yet? Not the same.

Retirements. Not everyone is going to 65. The airline knows this, and DL is also getting 200 new mainline planes in the next few years. (88 717s, 100 739ERs, 30 A321s, and 10 A330s). How many are leaving? 17 DC95s, and an undetermined amount of 757s. Thanks to recent profits, rumor has it the 757s destined for the boneyard may stay longer. Some A320s were destined to leave too, but rumor has it Airbus extended the cycle limit. They decide when an Airbus needs to be parked. Again, most pilots will NOT go to 65, especially the FNWA pilots who have frozen pensions. They'll probably leave at 62 or 63 to collect what is left of Social Security. So, earlier retirements and mainline growth mean upward advancement, a lot faster than yours.

The last contract dealt with DCI and high end scope. DCI will be shrinking by 140 RJs total within 3 years. If you don't think that is remarkable, then you are clueless. Adding 88 717s will change th game totally. Those 88 717s will replace 76 sweaters and 70 seaters, which will now fly pairings the outgoing 50 seaters were doing. That means more seats to smaller cities, to bring in more feed. 717s are already taking a bunch of previous mainline routes that were given to the Regionals after BK. It is a huge deal, all good for Mainline.

Scope has also been improved, even at the Joint Venture level. Larger amounts of the pie have been given to DL, and even code share partners like AK are now feeling the pinch from DL, who wants to fly more "inhouse." Look at the new battle of SEA. And look at the other SkyTeam members and what is happening to them. AF/KL are having financial difficulties and strikes by employees. Their shrinking due to ME carriers pressuring their downline connections to SE Asia has really hurt them. Alitalia is having major problems. Aeroflot may want out of the Alliance all together. All of that means more flying for DL. The big 3 US carriers are not hurt badly at all by the big 3 Gulf carriers, the geography just doesn't affect us as bad as the European and SE Asia carriers. Nope.

Look Ghetto, good try at the analysis, but I think it was off. The bottom third of your group will be looking around for better opportunities, and the big 3 will offer it IF you join earlier than later. You can't deny huge retirement numbers, strengthening balance sheets, and higher pay will have them looking. No, it won't be the same first year as your 6th year pay, but some want variety and a chance at upward movement, now....


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[waveflyer]

Delta domestic flying has very little in common with swa's our pairings are so much better top to bottom

 

[General Lee]

Delta domestic flying has very little in common with swa's our pairings are so much better top to bottom

Uhhhhh, what? On all fleets? How do you know? Hmmm. Several fleets (read CHOICE) have trips varying from one day turns to the Caribbean, all the way to 12 day trips, which commuters love due to a single commute and then up to 30 days off before next trip. You left your Legacy way too early, and I think now you regret it. If you were furloughed, you probably have thought about returning. Choice is GOOD. Stagnation on the other hand, sux. The legacies have been stagnate since Age 65 started, but that's about to be over soon. You guys unfortunately won't see much benefit to that. Truth hurts.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[waveflyer]

No regrets
And no I haven't

I know you can't imagine those with choices wouldn't choose your life- but it's the sincere truth.

And- your domestic MD lines are still hub and spoke aren't they? Until you get into the transcon planes- which we do now too you know.
You guys have an awful lot of unpaid airport appreciation and congestion to deal with. And we're starting to deal with that a little in the Denver's, vegas's and MDWs - but I have to laugh when our guys get all spooled up about that. It's NOTHING compared to any legacy. 5 leg days are rare but they are so much easier than many of your domestic 4 leg days that go through the hub multiple times and by design congest the place to exchange passengers. And bc of that you also swap a lot-
Me, we swap- but I still have a majority of days where we make our nest and and fly a triangle point to point til the overnight-

You know what choice is? Every pilot here does all the flying on one fleet. So if I want to fly transcons, I don't need to bid the 75 to do that for a while. If I want to stay west and fly the California shuttle for a while- all I have to do is bid for it.

And I still like having beers with my crew-

Is it SWA circa 1995 fun wise? No- bc crews grow up and we have an accountant for a leader who let's attorneys have too much reign. Still nothing at all like the boring ass bitter legacy majority you have over there-

I chose to retire with laugh lines, and that's worth more than all your choices and carrot chasing

 

[General Lee]

No regrets
And no I haven't

I know you can't imagine those with choices wouldn't choose your life- but it's the sincere truth.

And- your domestic MD lines are still hub and spoke aren't they? Until you get into the transcon planes- which we do now too you know.
You guys have an awful lot of unpaid airport appreciation and congestion to deal with. And we're starting to deal with that a little in the Denver's, vegas's and MDWs - but I have to laugh when our guys get all spooled up about that. It's NOTHING compared to any legacy. 5 leg days are rare but they are so much easier than many of your domestic 4 leg days that go through the hub multiple times and by design congest the place to exchange passengers. And bc of that you also swap a lot-
Me, we swap- but I still have a majority of days where we make our nest and and fly a triangle point to point til the overnight-

You know what choice is? Every pilot here does all the flying on one fleet. So if I want to fly transcons, I don't need to bid the 75 to do that for a while. If I want to stay west and fly the California shuttle for a while- all I have to do is bid for it.

And I still like having beers with my crew-

Is it SWA circa 1995 fun wise? No- bc crews grow up and we have an accountant for a leader who let's attorneys have too much reign. Still nothing at all like the boring ass bitter legacy majority you have over there-

I chose to retire with laugh lines, and that's worth more than all your choices and carrot chasing

Great Wave, but don't get defensive when I describe differences. There is no hiding that there is plenty more variety at a legacy, and the retirement numbers will be great for Legacy pilots. New hire wannabes want to know differences, that's it. Also, not all MDs do hub and spoke. They may go through a hub like DTW or ATL, but then go to LGA and down to PBI or MIA. Things have changed for the better on most fleets, and types still cost the pilots zero out of pocket when hired.


Bye Bye---General Lee