Leave SWA for AA or Delta?

[General Lee]

The most frustrating thing about GL is that he is so completely one sided. He doesn't even acknowledge obvious facts if it isn't beneficial to his Delta's awesome and Southwest sucks rant. In responding to me he has:

1. Failed to acknowledge the risk of being at the bottom of a seniority list at company whose bond rating is junk. He brings up over and over again how their balance sheet is improving which is true. That is the equivalent of saying your girlfriend is losing weight without acknowledging that she's fat.

2. In one post he tells me how a guy could make more per hour if he gets to widebody f/o in his 3rd year then a few posts later tell me that a capt upgrade will come way before 50 percentile seniority because widebody F/O goes so senior. He chooses to leave out how there is almost 0 percent chance that a 3rd year f/o will be able to bid widebody. Bottom line a person making a move like the OP was discussing would be losing money for a long time if they moved vs. staying at WN.

3. He beats the massive retirements drum over and over again but fails to tell anyone that DL has very few retirements for the next 5 years. In the next 5 years they will retire about 10 percent total which means todays newhire will be doing SW style flying in the MD88 or 717 for a long time.

4. He won't admit that 40 percent DCI is a problem or that top end joint ventures/codeshares are problematic as well.

I don't think see many WN pilots who won't acknowledge the stagnation here, the higher probability of another merger, or the benefits to a pilot having type of flying choices even if many of us have no interest in long haul international personally.

Hmmmmm. Okay, here goes. DL is the highest revenue and highest profit taking airline today. Being "junk bond rated" is temporary, you can read that in the Credit rating agencies notes. Paying off nearly $10 billion in debt in 4 1/2 years is an amazing feat, and think if those numbers keep coming in? Amazing profit potential, and DL stock has out performed SWA this year by a substantial amount. The money guys have it covered.

Next, making more money as a 3rd year wide body FO. If people are leaving at 700-800 per year, the airline will be offering double time (GS) like candy. The next contract talks are approaching, and with a recent $1.3 billion profit in ONE quarter, it's likely a bigger raise will be coming. (Also to attract more junior SWA pilots and other people considering the other legacies). SWA on the other hand, will be entering talks at a defensive post. GK wants his LCC back.

As far as that 6th year Corndog vs the 3rd year Wide body FO, when you are stuck at the bottom, with very little upward movement, you are at a disadvantage. Harder to get desireable trips, weekends off, doing nasty West Texas layovers. That is never fun, and stagnation is the problem. If you hardly ever move up the ladder, your earning potential wanes. 5000 retirements, OTOH, can propel your earning potential, because not every plane size pays the same. Understand yet? Not the same.

Retirements. Not everyone is going to 65. The airline knows this, and DL is also getting 200 new mainline planes in the next few years. (88 717s, 100 739ERs, 30 A321s, and 10 A330s). How many are leaving? 17 DC95s, and an undetermined amount of 757s. Thanks to recent profits, rumor has it the 757s destined for the boneyard may stay longer. Some A320s were destined to leave too, but rumor has it Airbus extended the cycle limit. They decide when an Airbus needs to be parked. Again, most pilots will NOT go to 65, especially the FNWA pilots who have frozen pensions. They'll probably leave at 62 or 63 to collect what is left of Social Security. So, earlier retirements and mainline growth mean upward advancement, a lot faster than yours.

The last contract dealt with DCI and high end scope. DCI will be shrinking by 140 RJs total within 3 years. If you don't think that is remarkable, then you are clueless. Adding 88 717s will change th game totally. Those 88 717s will replace 76 sweaters and 70 seaters, which will now fly pairings the outgoing 50 seaters were doing. That means more seats to smaller cities, to bring in more feed. 717s are already taking a bunch of previous mainline routes that were given to the Regionals after BK. It is a huge deal, all good for Mainline.

Scope has also been improved, even at the Joint Venture level. Larger amounts of the pie have been given to DL, and even code share partners like AK are now feeling the pinch from DL, who wants to fly more "inhouse." Look at the new battle of SEA. And look at the other SkyTeam members and what is happening to them. AF/KL are having financial difficulties and strikes by employees. Their shrinking due to ME carriers pressuring their downline connections to SE Asia has really hurt them. Alitalia is having major problems. Aeroflot may want out of the Alliance all together. All of that means more flying for DL. The big 3 US carriers are not hurt badly at all by the big 3 Gulf carriers, the geography just doesn't affect us as bad as the European and SE Asia carriers. Nope.

Look Ghetto, good try at the analysis, but I think it was off. The bottom third of your group will be looking around for better opportunities, and the big 3 will offer it IF you join earlier than later. You can't deny huge retirement numbers, strengthening balance sheets, and higher pay will have them looking. No, it won't be the same first year as your 6th year pay, but some want variety and a chance at upward movement, now....


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[waveflyer]

Delta domestic flying has very little in common with swa's our pairings are so much better top to bottom

 

[General Lee]

Delta domestic flying has very little in common with swa's our pairings are so much better top to bottom

Uhhhhh, what? On all fleets? How do you know? Hmmm. Several fleets (read CHOICE) have trips varying from one day turns to the Caribbean, all the way to 12 day trips, which commuters love due to a single commute and then up to 30 days off before next trip. You left your Legacy way too early, and I think now you regret it. If you were furloughed, you probably have thought about returning. Choice is GOOD. Stagnation on the other hand, sux. The legacies have been stagnate since Age 65 started, but that's about to be over soon. You guys unfortunately won't see much benefit to that. Truth hurts.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[waveflyer]

No regrets
And no I haven't

I know you can't imagine those with choices wouldn't choose your life- but it's the sincere truth.

And- your domestic MD lines are still hub and spoke aren't they? Until you get into the transcon planes- which we do now too you know.
You guys have an awful lot of unpaid airport appreciation and congestion to deal with. And we're starting to deal with that a little in the Denver's, vegas's and MDWs - but I have to laugh when our guys get all spooled up about that. It's NOTHING compared to any legacy. 5 leg days are rare but they are so much easier than many of your domestic 4 leg days that go through the hub multiple times and by design congest the place to exchange passengers. And bc of that you also swap a lot-
Me, we swap- but I still have a majority of days where we make our nest and and fly a triangle point to point til the overnight-

You know what choice is? Every pilot here does all the flying on one fleet. So if I want to fly transcons, I don't need to bid the 75 to do that for a while. If I want to stay west and fly the California shuttle for a while- all I have to do is bid for it.

And I still like having beers with my crew-

Is it SWA circa 1995 fun wise? No- bc crews grow up and we have an accountant for a leader who let's attorneys have too much reign. Still nothing at all like the boring ass bitter legacy majority you have over there-

I chose to retire with laugh lines, and that's worth more than all your choices and carrot chasing

 

[General Lee]

No regrets
And no I haven't

I know you can't imagine those with choices wouldn't choose your life- but it's the sincere truth.

And- your domestic MD lines are still hub and spoke aren't they? Until you get into the transcon planes- which we do now too you know.
You guys have an awful lot of unpaid airport appreciation and congestion to deal with. And we're starting to deal with that a little in the Denver's, vegas's and MDWs - but I have to laugh when our guys get all spooled up about that. It's NOTHING compared to any legacy. 5 leg days are rare but they are so much easier than many of your domestic 4 leg days that go through the hub multiple times and by design congest the place to exchange passengers. And bc of that you also swap a lot-
Me, we swap- but I still have a majority of days where we make our nest and and fly a triangle point to point til the overnight-

You know what choice is? Every pilot here does all the flying on one fleet. So if I want to fly transcons, I don't need to bid the 75 to do that for a while. If I want to stay west and fly the California shuttle for a while- all I have to do is bid for it.

And I still like having beers with my crew-

Is it SWA circa 1995 fun wise? No- bc crews grow up and we have an accountant for a leader who let's attorneys have too much reign. Still nothing at all like the boring ass bitter legacy majority you have over there-

I chose to retire with laugh lines, and that's worth more than all your choices and carrot chasing

Great Wave, but don't get defensive when I describe differences. There is no hiding that there is plenty more variety at a legacy, and the retirement numbers will be great for Legacy pilots. New hire wannabes want to know differences, that's it. Also, not all MDs do hub and spoke. They may go through a hub like DTW or ATL, but then go to LGA and down to PBI or MIA. Things have changed for the better on most fleets, and types still cost the pilots zero out of pocket when hired.


Bye Bye---General Lee