Latest PNCL email

[dingo222]

SKYW, Inc., still has that multi-billion dollar loan at the ready, as well. I'm sure DL would love to a) stop paying lease fees on currently owned aircraft, and b) have someone else pay for the new planes.

becuase we saw how well that worked for pcl. they bought the airplanes, costs went up over time, and delta withheld money until they went into bk. rinse and repeat.

 

[ASApuppy]

SKYW, Inc., still has that multi-billion dollar loan at the ready, as well. I'm sure DL would love to a) stop paying lease fees on currently owned aircraft, and b) have someone else pay for the new planes.

Ummm, It does not matter who own's the lease. The mainline partner whose name appears on the side of the airplane and who sells the seats onboard the aircraft pays for the lease. Either direct to the lease holder or as a pass through. Regionals are not in a business of "gifting" free airplanes. Where differences are made is in volume discounts and or the need to offload a long term debt. Skywest will not lease an aircraft without a long-term contract.

 

[AntiJedi]

The mainline partner whose name appears on the side of the airplane and who sells the seats onboard the aircraft pays for the lease. Either direct to the lease holder or as a pass through. Regionals are not in a business of "gifting" free airplanes. Where differences are made is in volume discounts and or the need to offload a long term debt. Skywest will not lease an aircraft without a long-term contract.

I'm aware that SKYW won't make a move without a contract; it's too conservative a company to try and do something as stupid like that. However, that doesn't mean that they don't have to financial ability to find things in their favor and then execute quicky.

 

[WMUSIGPI]

I'm aware that SKYW won't make a move without a contract; it's too conservative a company to try and do something as stupid like that. However, that doesn't mean that they don't have to financial ability to find things in their favor and then execute quicky.

Only Phil Trenary would be stupid enough to go into business with 2 different partners flying 2 different fleet types taking a loss just to "get a foot in the door in hopes of a better deal down the road"

 

[79%N1]

xjhawk has it pretty spot on.. Delta has 5 airlines flying the 50 seater for them. My guess is that will go down to 3-4 airlines. Do the math, they will spit the 125 pretty even. So 30-60 airplanes each.. Just based on the ASA contract that 80% DCI out of ATL has to be them.. And SkyWest's "min-block hours" clause.. CHQ contract is up in 2016.. Comair??? 9E in CH11... The hammer will drop... Delta will want to keep a lowball in there. They need to keep that "rate rest" game going.. In any case! i see 3 airlines flying whats left.. My guess based on the contracts, is ASA will keep the most. ASA maybe 60. SkyWest 30, 9E 35. Will see how close i am.. ( this is all just my guess ) Now to the "new" 900's... Will they have to trade out ASA/SKW some for there contract so maybe 15-20 to each. The real question is who can get the loans? Will Delta. Or is it up to the "regional"..if Delta does. You can bet your bottom dollar GoJet will get some 900's . Everything points to these 70 new ones being CRJ900's. So Compass/Republic may be out of luck.. Then will see if Delta gives any to 9E/Comair... Could be a good way to get someone to buy Comair... 50 aircraft bonus to buy them...??

\

GoJets will get ZERO new a/c! They have no 200's to trade out - which is part of the contract to eliminate 200's - and Delta is already unhappy with them! They won't be adding any 900's for Delta. Pinnacle is also in trouble, as they are bankrupt. Skywest has money and strong contracts.

 

[Flyer1015]

\

GoJets will get ZERO new a/c! They have no 200's to trade out - which is part of the contract to eliminate 200's - and Delta is already unhappy with them! They won't be adding any 900's for Delta. Pinnacle is also in trouble, as they are bankrupt. Skywest has money and strong contracts.

Sure they can. Delta only wants to eliminate -200s. Pinnacle can easily lose its -200s in exchange of -900s, and Delta can give those to GoJets.

 

[79%N1]

True.....BUT........Delta is already leary of GoJets. They were awarded the flying they got as part of the deal of Trans States purchase of Compass.

 

[titans10]

Who told you delta was leary of GoJets?

 

[sinkrate]

For PNCL to exit BK they will need more cash - and only DAL is willing to supply it - if PNCL meets whatever cost target they have. IF PNCL does exit BK they will have to have a revenue stream large enough to service the debt DAL is going to saddle them with. My guess is some where around 100 AC - that is typicaly what wall street will want for an IPO. The BK judge and the creditor committee will have to accept the plan. It is possible, but not very likely, that PCL could emerge from BK with just the former Mesaba operation. That size operation would struggle to service the new debt incurred in BK. Liquidation would be more likely.

This is very different from CMR or the first Mesaba BK. There are more players in a much larger game. Delta does not have any interest in owning any regioanl. The business model for the DCI operation is to have several regionals competing against each other on price. From DALs perspective there is no profit in owning a regional - it would reduce the competition. They will move the contracts around from carrier to carrier so they are never paying more than year 5 or 6 wage rates. When a carrier gets top heavy with senior pilots they will move the planes to another carrier. Then pilots will go with the planes and start over at year one wage rates. Unless the pilots of the top heavy carrier ratify an agreement that effectively reduces their longevity to equal GoJets - or whoever is the latest new carrier. To a Delta station we are all the same.

It doesn't look good for PCL, CMR or ASA for that matter.

 

[i fly boxes]

I bet this is what happens next: Sometime within the next 1 to 3 months Delta will announce the actual draw down plan of the 200's and an order for 70 CRJ 900's but they will not place them at a regional carrier yet. Then pncl management and all the other managements will threaten all of us and tell us that if we dont bring down our costs, blah blah blah, we will not get the flying. Delta obviously knows where this flying will go but it wont be revealed until after pinnacle comes out of chapter 11 or goes under which should be by the end of the year.