Jetblue Loses $32m

[G4G5]

How do you equate selling 2-5 320s and slowing 320 deliveries to 12/yr til 2012 and keeping the 190 deliveries as scheduled as pilots getting stuck in seats? That still results in over 20% growth. There will be no 320 upgrades for 6 months. Then they have to keep hiring/upgrading to fill those seats plus the 190s.

Their will be little or no movement in the A320 for the remainder of 2006. Do you care to make a prediction for 2007. I won't.

In a round about way, the 190 fos may be getting a raise. They are exploring a fo-qualified-as-capt option whereby 190 fos will be typed and pic qualified and will be paid as such when used in that seat.

2nd year 190ca pay is $56 x 75 hr reserve guarantee x 12 months = $50,400. The lock in only 2 years if their is an A320 seat to move into. You can talk about expansion all you want but you can't make the above numbers any better.

A union, and God forbid ALPA, is the last thing Jb needs. For some reason, alot of people on this board seem to forget that 90%+ of jb pilots are former alpa members who learned that they didnt do anything for us at our former airlines. Take 1.95% and give us a pos magazine full of DW pictures. Also, many also think that for some reason jb pilot=wet behind the ears airline pilot. Ill drop you a hint: jb=relatively new airline=many highly experienced pilots, many furloughed from alpa airlines.

ALPA is not the answer. Try doing what AA, UPS and LUV have done. The explosive A3230 captain upgrades are over and the 190 pay rates stink. Their is not enough lipstick in the world to make this pig look good. The senior folks are going to have to do something. This is not going away. If they leave it to Dave and Dave to fix, well...............what happens when nothing gets done?

 

[Sailpilot]

2nd year 190ca pay is $56 x 75 hr reserve guarantee x 12 months = $50,400. The lock in only 2 years if their is an A320 seat to move into. You can talk about expansion all you want but you can't make the above numbers any better.

You used the wrong numbers to start with Jacka$$, don't need the numbers to look better for "your" 190 CA rate.

 

[IB6 UB9]

2nd year 190ca pay is $56 x 75 hr reserve guarantee x 12 months = $50,400. The lock in only 2 years if their is an A320 seat to move into. You can talk about expansion all you want but you can't make the above numbers any better.

I don't think these numbers are right, so in a sense I can make them better.

 

[Jonny Sacko]

Wow. I just defecated on the loveseat after reading this one. Maybe if we offer to pay ALPA 15% they'll take just a hard enough look at us to let some of us with furlough cards come crawling back. Jonny, you just crowned yourself the village idiot with your (see my original post on this thread) thoughtful and insightful intelligence. Oh wait, now you're in second place again. There's that disgruntled and drunken old 32 ......

edited for civility--IB, keep it nice please...

So, village idiot huh? I sure hope you're not the voice of intelligence in your village. JetBlue's pilots (You), have been bashing most others' work rules for the last 3 years (while times were good) and now "is little boy not happy?", times have turned for You too. It's a horrible time for Aviation. Since you've been on your high (hobby) horse, and Demanded FAR changes, bashed Unions archaic rules, (On CNN a couple of years ago, if memory serves me correct) and their "Cushy" lifestyles, only to find that "Humph, I might be FIRED by the same company I've been bashing others for. "Oh, lets just GET the unions, they'll fix it."
I meant to say "fired", rocket scientist. Why, an inquiring mind might want to know? Yourself NOT included. Does everyone have recall rights, or ARE there recall rights, with no union or contract? Hmm, Do they "Have to" or "should" they Rehire you. I guess it really depends on how management chooses, or who they choose to fire. Would there be any notice? Of course a person of your intelligence and bashing stature will be right back! It's almost guaranteed.
I think one of the funniest parts about this, (not many, since the ENTIRE industry is under attack) is how brazen and full of yourself you are. You say you "were" ALPA, So what gives with the bashing of the crappy "Union" rules, but now you want one. I sure hope those FAR changes happen for Neelmen, before you get Fired.

Piss off, and good luck to the rest of the GREAT folks about take it in the shorts, because of attitudes like yours!

Oh ya, that whole village idiot part, go ahead and smile, next time you're looking in the mirror, combing all 3 hairs left on that inflated ego, cuz he's there with you, take a peek.

If you want to drop the personal bashing, (of course not the union bashing) I can do that too, It's up to your ego. Viva La Ego

 

[IB6 UB9]

Jonny,

How your brain decoded all the information out there to where you come up with our "bashing others work rules" and "demanded FAR changes" I'll never know. With that line of reasoning I question how you keep a medical. That horse has been beat soooo many times, I think I'll just leave you to it. As far as the "firing" of our pilots as we gain seniority...you are right...it may happen some day. Up to this point it hasn't, and I think I speak on behalf of most of us when I say I highly doubt it ever will. Jonny, you fall into the category of those who not only post over and over about the topic, but actually hope it happens for us. Why I don't know. I am yet to fly with a B6 pilot that prays for doom and gloom for a pilot of another carrier.

Your post is a little hard to follow. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, maybe you just got home from an all-nighter. I invite you to a few hours in our crew room and I think you would change your mind about the high and mighty attitude that you think we have. My post to you was in response to one of the more idiotic statements I have seen on here in a while...but after reading your more recent one I see what I am up against. Can you elaborate on the "cushy lifestyles" that you mentioned? And the recall rights thing...what are you asking here?

 

[zkmayo]

How do you equate selling 2-5 320s and slowing 320 deliveries to 12/yr til 2012 and keeping the 190 deliveries as scheduled as pilots getting stuck in seats? That still results in over 20% growth. There will be no 320 upgrades for 6 months. Then they have to keep hiring/upgrading to fill those seats plus the 190s.

Their will be little or no movement in the A320 for the remainder of 2006. Do you care to make a prediction for 2007. I won't.





Sure, Ill make a prediction for 2007. 12 A320 deliveries and 18 190s. If oil goes to 100, who knows. If you know the price of oil in 6 months, tell me, that's info I could use.


In a round about way, the 190 fos may be getting a raise. They are exploring a fo-qualified-as-capt option whereby 190 fos will be typed and pic qualified and will be paid as such when used in that seat.

2nd year 190ca pay is $56 x 75 hr reserve guarantee x 12 months = $50,400. The lock in only 2 years if their is an A320 seat to move into. You can talk about expansion all you want but you can't make the above numbers any better.




Actually, the pay is $72/hr but hey since when has accuracy mattered on this board? So its actually 72 X 70 (guar)=5040 plus 5 X 108 (Time and a half after 70 for 5 hours of reserve line) = 540 = 5580 X12= 66960. Nothing to get excited about but do you have 2 year Capts at your airline?

A union, and God forbid ALPA, is the last thing Jb needs. For some reason, alot of people on this board seem to forget that 90%+ of jb pilots are former alpa members who learned that they didnt do anything for us at our former airlines. Take 1.95% and give us a pos magazine full of DW pictures. Also, many also think that for some reason jb pilot=wet behind the ears airline pilot. Ill drop you a hint: jb=relatively new airline=many highly experienced pilots, many furloughed from alpa airlines.

ALPA is not the answer. Try doing what AA, UPS and LUV have done. The explosive A3230 captain upgrades are over and the 190 pay rates stink. Their is not enough lipstick in the world to make this pig look good. The senior folks are going to have to do something. This is not going away. If they leave it to Dave and Dave to fix, well...............what happens when nothing gets done?



Maybe, if it comes to that. I believe unions, even in house, create us vs them mentalities that are counterproductive. i know blah blah blah safety, blah blah blah pay, blah blah blah workrules. Did i mention im former alpa?

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[Jonny Sacko]

It is sad that you can't understand that I am not against the pilots at JetBlue. I simply don't appreciate that impact that non-unionized labor has on the industry. You have all bragged for the last 6 years about how great your relationship with management is...and how superior your leaders are. Sounds to me like the JetBlue team is making all the same mistakes every other airline has made over and over again. It's a shame that you are starting to see the flip side, and even a bigger shame that you didn't see it coming. I hope unionization doesn't come to late to save the jobs of all my friends that are employed by JetBlue. You think that I am praying for the doom and gloom of fellow pilots? I don't work for a non-unionized carrier!

 

[IB6 UB9]

We have bragged about our relationship with management...we still are and will continue to do so until some of your prophecies come true. This isn't my first show Jonny. Some of my previous management raped the employees and cashed their bonus cheques, laughing in our faces while running to the bank. The only flip side we are seeing is the fact that this airline can't be profitable without adapting and making changes to our business plan. It doesn't happen overnight. I'll take this management group over all the others put together. As opposed to your statement "Sounds to me like the JetBlue team is making all the same mistakes every other airline has made over and over again" I beg to differ. If our management team sat idly by and let B6 self-destruct without making some drastic changes to our business plan this would be true. I challenge you to name another management team that has been this proactive in keeping a good relationship with labor. Like everything else though, I guess we will see what happens over time. Maybe our management will turn on us like a "woman scorned"...somehow I doubt it. I think that would be the first step in the destruction of the company. If it happens, well, I'll dust off the log books and iron the interview suit again...like last time, but I'm not going looking for them just yet.

BTW, what impact has unionized labor had on the industry lately?

 

[PBRstreetgang]

I just hate that term,,, "Right Sizing"

"D'oh"!

Your right IB6, not much more insightful than that, sorry.

Hey,
They should apply that term to ticket price!

 

[banger]

If the b6 pilots have a 5 year contract then do they re-sign a new contract upon the 5 year point. I imagine there are a bunch of pilots at the 5 year point. If you don't re-sign a new contract then why wouldn't they just boot you to keep costs down. Sounds like that is what it's designed for.

If I was management I would start looking at cutting high employee salary in a hurry.

no, that is incorrect.

 

[AA717driver]

Airlinepilotcentral.com lists second year pay as $72.00/hour. At 75 hours, taking into account the over 70 hour override and accepting that 75 hours is the reserve guarantee, the pay would be $66,960/yr.

Now, I realize you can use your sick time and fly on your days off and other creative ways to boost your pay. But someone is still going to be in the bottom half of the seniority list in a given seat/aircraft and will be shut out of most of the goodies.

The potential for slowing growth is exactly why I passed on the interview in late '04. For once in my career, I guessed right. Good luck.TC

 

[roadrunnerblue]

You're right, and I realize yield and capacity go hand in hand. My arguement is I don't believe there is overcapacity right now. A record number of people are flying, capacity has been slashed since 9-11, and everyone is flying full. Not 100% full but mid 70's to mid 80's system wide depending on the airline.

I think about 85% is considered "full" for systemwide loads. You just can't really get much higher than that or your bumped pax and effects of cancellations increase exopentially with each percentage above that.

I don't think we have to send everyone who won't pay "big bucks" to the bus or train for us all to be profitable. We do need to raise ticket prices though, and our management's philosophy is as flawed as anyone's on that topic (or at least it has been, before these latest rounds of fare hikes started sticking). The common consensus in the ivory towers is even though you only need to raise tix 5 or 10 bucks to get back in the black, if you do then all your pax will run to the competitors pushing you further into the red. This is false when all your competitors are running full. The stratedgy of losing money on each pax but making it up in volume is what's killing us all.

You're right about too many seats on some routes. JFK-FLL what, 17 times a day? Hey that's fine if demand is there, but if you can't get the extra 5-10 bucks a ticket then absolutely cut back. And definately cut back on the number of cheap fare buckets.

And speaking of "just picking another flight and getting a better deal", we have been our own worst enemy in that regards too. We have let way too many people intentionally buy tix in the lowest buckets, show up for the flight they originally wanted to fly on, and stand by for free. Since we don't oversell, yet get a similar number of no shows as any other airline, we almost always have seats so that tactic has been consistently rewarded. Sometimes the fare difference is several hundred percent. This has got to stop.

We have finally figured that out, and will be charging I think a 25 dollar change fee each way and, I hope, the fare difference. There is a line between exceptional customer service and giving away the farm. Our previous (albeit probably "unofficial") policy in this regards crossed that line and its time to fix it.

With so many other things we are now aware of what changes need to be made; too bad we are reinventing the wheel every day, while calling it "thinking out of the box".

 

[G4G5]

I don't think these numbers are right, so in a sense I can make them better.

I used A320 FO numbers, my mistake. The numbers AA717 provided are correct.

Sorry.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

Airlinepilotcentral.com lists second year pay as $72.00/hour. At 75 hours, taking into account the over 70 hour override and accepting that 75 hours is the reserve guarantee, the pay would be $66,960/yr.

We have bragged about our relationship with management...we still are and will continue to do so until some of your prophecies come true. Some of my previous management raped the employees and cashed their bonus cheques, laughing in our faces while running to the bank.

BTW, what impact has unionized labor had on the industry lately?

I fly a CRJ 50 seater (1/2 the size of the 190) for the regional that pays second from the bottom and our first year reservists (Yes, we have some) are taking about 78K a year.
Now that the playing field has leveled, with your maintenance costs creeping up and fuel prices rising and the intense competition from the re structured legacy carriers that for your information are coming for you, Airtran and SWA with vengeance. Lets see what your management group will have to do to continue their strategy. Maybe, just maybe, your honeymoon with them is over, because if you think that they really care, you are delirious.

Time to wake up and smell the roses. Have you checked oil prices lately? welcome to the real airline business my friend. The movie "Legacy Market Share Recovery Plan" is coming to a theater near you

 

[IB6 UB9]

I fly a CRJ 50 seater (1/2 the size of the 190) for the regional that pays second from the bottom and our first year reservists (Yes, we have some) are taking about 78K a year.
Now that the playing field has leveled, with your maintenance costs creeping up and fuel prices rising and the intense competition from the re structured legacy carriers that for your information are coming for you, Airtran and SWA with vengeance. Lets see what your management group will have to do to continue their strategy. Maybe, just maybe, your honeymoon with them is over, because if you think that they really care, you are delirious.

Time to wake up and smell the roses. Have you checked oil prices lately? welcome to the real airline business my friend. The movie "Legacy Market Share Recovery Plan" is coming to a theater near you

Are you saying that your 50 seat rate pays a minimum guarantee of 78K per year, or are these guys/gals flying 85-90 hours a month? I am sincerely just curious. No arguing that our 190 rates are low. What do you suggest, call ALPA and get them raised up? Is this where I tell you to wake up and smell the roses?

Also, what is this sentence fragment supposed to mean..."Now that the playing field has leveled, with your maintenance costs creeping up and fuel prices rising and the intense competition from the re structured legacy carriers that for your information are coming for you, Airtran and SWA with vengeance."? I get lost when I read this...maybe if you finish the sentence it would help.

BTW...a witch rides a broom.

 

[SEVEN]

This thread should bring out the finest of personalities...I predict numerous thoughtful and insightful posts.

Prediction: JetBlue Bankrupt/Out of Business by Spring of 2008. Once passengers figure out that blue chips really just taste the same as white ones it's all over........

 

[IB6 UB9]

Prediction: JetBlue Bankrupt/Out of Business by Spring of 2008.

Can someone enlighten me as to why this would make so many so happy?

 

[Uppercrust]

How much cash does JetBlue have??

 

[AlbieF15]

People want JB to fail for a variety of reasons.

First--we need a "cause" for all this pain. The industry is too complex for any easy answer, so we need a scapegoat. SWA cannot be the cause, because we know that Jetblue with 26 ERJs has done a lot more damage to pilot wages than SWA has with its 400+ 737s and requirement to PFT (the T being TYPE).

Second--dispite all the "efficiency" in SWA's model, the lack of an A plan often gets overlooked because a great 401k/profit sharing plan. However, because SWA has a union (albeit a homegrown verses national union) many would prefer to rail against a non-union company that has a similar model verses a union company that does uses a remarkably similar compensation model.

Third--when you get burned by your current airline, and then burned again later, you grow cynical. The idealistic atmosphere at JB gets under the skin of a lot of guys who feel they've been lied to. Every dated someone off a bad relationship? You often get the third degree for stuff you didn't even do...but it comes with the territory. Neeleman seems like up great guy to me, but others hurt by Crandall, Seagel, and a host of other managers villify everyone. (well...except St Herb. However--they will occasionally bitch about Parker...)

My honest take: SWA has done more to wreck the old school airline job at other airlines than any other airline, period. I'm not saying SWA pilots did that--they didn't. They were smart enough to jump on a good business plan and do what companies do--compete! However, JB did not create the LCC model, SWA did. JB attempted to copy what SWA has done but with an upscale model and a different aircraft.

Now--some will say "but SWA pays its pilots better than about anyone...", and I would agree. Right now UPS, SWA, and FDX have the "industry leading" contracts out there. However, we are at the top by default. The demise of the A plan/250 an hour plus captain contracts at Delta, United, US Air, American, and Northwest have put pressure on everyone. There are a myriad of factors that have led to this decline in real wages, including the internet, the post 9/11 downturn, the bursting of the 2000 stock market bubble, etc etc. It has proven to be a very hard business for ANYONE to make money in the pax business. However, to lay blame on a small non-union company that tried the SWA type model is rediculous. JB doesn't even fly but to about 30 cities, and yet SWA is kicking everyone else's butt all over the country, and nobody bats an eye.

Another point--JB pays for its new hires to go to Orlando, live in a hotel, share a rental car, and get trained. SWA cultivates a lovey-dovey relationship with a few type rating places who get rich off a bunch of folks trying to make a living in a tough industry by shelling out 8 grand for type in the hopes that getting it from the "right" place will get them an interview with (what seems to be...) a 25% success rate or less of the street. Why is there more backlash against a company that pays a lower starting salary but doesn't require 10k up front in expenses with no guarantee of even getting the job?

Again--I have some great friends at SWA, and I love helping people get ready for their interviews. One of my team that has helped a lot of JB clients is a SWA pilot and flies with me in the ANG. I think SWA is going to be a very dominent player for years, and I think it would be a great place to work in this tough environment. However, to lay the blame of the "demise of the industry" on a carrier with 100 planes that has been around less than 7 years to me is simply looking for a scapegoat. If you want to see what has destroyed a lot of pensions in the last 10 years, look squarely at those guys taxing past you at a fast clip in a Canyon Blue jet who have been doing the job without an A plan for the last 15-20 years. Many of them are millionares, because they invested IN the company instead of in a pension plan. History seems to be proving them right. They have been the single biggest force of change for any airline in the last 10 years...

 

[Longhorn]

Aaron, great post. BTW, no more rental cars for new hires in MCO. That changed after the MIA to MCO move. Hope all is well at purple...
LH

 

[Uppercrust]

People want JB to fail for a variety of reasons.

I don't want them to fail. Seriously, I don't think most folks do either. A lot of macho stuff here on this board combined with a few brewskis and a long day brings out the pessimism. If I took all the advice on this board I'd be a millionaire on purchasing/selling stock.

First--we need a "cause" for all this pain. The industry is too complex for any easy answer, so we need a scapegoat.

There is no cause but the chaos of an industry that relies on the price of oil and the world politics of that oil. Pure and simple it is chaotic and a lot like playing the lottery.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

deleted

 

[AA717driver]

Albie--Great post. Not many people can say that--you have to be from a successful carrier to do it. Otherwise, it's just sour grapes.

As I have said before, the SWA pilot group (as I knew them before 9/11) are awsome people--really the best. But I have always had heartburn with the requirement to get the type before you show up for class (and generally before you get the interview).

That rules out a whole bunch of people who simply cannot mortgage their family's future on the chance that they will get on with SWA.

Not motivated enough, you say? Bull. It's irresponsible to spend money you don't have on the CHANCE you might get hired. That's gambling with your family's financial situation.

But the gist of Albie's post is right on--SWA hasn't raised the bar. It just got lowered to where they are. TC

 

[ivauir]

An interesting take on the industry but by no means origional. However, your focus is still on pilot compensation (in this case an A plan) when the real investment that SWA pilots have made is in sweat equity. My predecesors agreed to a compensation package that aligned our goals with that on the company.

BTW SWA takes at least as much bashing here on flight info as JB.

SWA has been in the driver's seat but I think deregulation set the course. Go ahead and blame us if it makes you feel better, but SWA has the scapegoat stink as much as JB.

In the end people bash anyone and everything that is different. They blame those adapting to changes in the environmnet for the environment changing.

BTW I got my type after I was offered a job - and it has cost me dearly already.

 

[HighSpeedClimb]

Can someone enlighten me as to why this would make so many so happy?

I'll tell you why, misery loves company, and most pilots these days are disinchanted with their management. They look at SWA and JB with envy. If your airline is getting bashed, consider it a compliment!

 

[COEX-FO]

I fly a CRJ 50 seater (1/2 the size of the 190) for the regional that pays second from the bottom and our first year reservists (Yes, we have some) are taking about 78K a year.

Something sounds wrong with this annual earnings for a first year FO at any regional! Care to explain how you arrived at this number?

 

[canyonblue]

My honest take: SWA has done more to wreck the old school airline job at other airlines than any other airline, period.

I think you have it wrong. Since 1938, the Federal government had strictly regulated airline fares and routes. The government kept fares high to please airline investors and airline-employee unions. This policy kept airline costs high and priced air travel out of the reach of most Americans.

A Texas attorney named Herbert Kelleher figured out that if an airline flew just within a state, it would escape federal regulation. He founded Southwest Airlines, serving only Texas, in 1971. Backpackers, students, retirees, and even children commuting between divorced parents packed Southwest's Boeing 737s. Says Kelleher of the larger, high-cost airlines' failed attempts to destroy Southwest in court: "If Southwest didn't survive" and open the skies to the public, "something was very wrong about our whole system, about our whole society."

In 1978, President Jimmy Carter and Congress changed the situation drastically when they deregulated the airlines. Airlines could now choose their own routes and fares. Kelleher promptly expanded Southwest outside of Texas. By the 1990s, Southwest had become a national powerhouse. By the mid-1990s, the U.S. airline industry had, as Petzinger explains, "bifurcated" into two side-by-side airline industries.

First, there is the informal cartel of high-cost, large-network carriers such as American and United Airlines. They carry business people, and some leisure travelers, and fly the international routes. Second, there is the low-fare airline industry, of which Southwest, JetBlue, and AirTran are major players. Low-fare airlines vastly increase enplanements at airports nationwide, where the cartel would charge much higher fares. These were the very same passengers that the Legacy carriers priced out of their airplanes, now they wanted them too. The problem was the Legacy carriers focused on 8% of the population, and their big bucks, while Southwest went after the other 92%.

The Legacy carriers could still be making the big bucks if they only focused on the top 8% of the population, but they would be much much smaller, with a lot less pilots. How many of you flew on an airplane prior to 1978, and how often? Before you blame the Southwest effect for creating all the extra travelers, remember it also created all the extra pilots to fly them.

 

[JetPilot_Mike]

I fly a CRJ 50 seater (1/2 the size of the 190) for the regional that pays second from the bottom and our first year reservists (Yes, we have some) are taking about 78K a year.

I call BS! Even if you got a whopping 1500 hrs of credit a year (even though you can only block 1000), you would need to make $52/hr for $78K. Not many RJ Fo's making $52/hr.

 

[~~~^~~~]

I understand the CASM/RASM equation very well. The ERJ is not a saviour many think it is. It still cost a lot of money to purchase, operate etc. The CRJ 50 did have a cost disadvantage but the 190 is not a tremendously greater airplane of scale for cost advantage.

Short haul/Transcon pick one or pick all.

Huh? The E190 carries 90% more revenue for around 23 to 25% more cost (depending on stage length). If anyone is curious the CRJ900 does it for 20% more cost than the -200.

Other items are catching up with jetBlue, from maintenance, crew longevity and insurance. The honeymoon is ending on schedule. Now it is time to go to work. Some items for jetBlue will nearly double, just to catch up with market rates for the services jetBlue uses.

New airlines are like college grads. Everyone sends them credit card applications and freebe offers in the mail to get their business. After a few years, the bills come due. JetBlue is still a well run airline, preferred by its customers. They just will have to adjust to reality going forward.

 

[81Horse]

... A Texas attorney named Herbert Kelleher figured out that if an airline flew just within a state, it would escape federal regulation. ...

He didn't figure this out all by himself. The original PSA was a successful intrastate California carrier for decades before Kelleher started Southwest.

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