Lowcur
Are you insinuating that UAIR will liquidate by then? I'll take that bet.
G4G5
The long term prospects of USA remaining in anything that resembles it's current size and shape are not good. To quote Larkfield from last week.
"We haven't yet closed the books on the second quarter, but it looks like there may even be a chance that we break even," said Bruce Lakefield.He quickly offered a caveat: "While that's a glimmer of good news, remember that the second quarter is traditionally US Airways' strongest, and we count on it to help carry us through the year."
So, no money made during their strongest quater and SWA smells blood (see recent fare sale), the tough fall and winter yet to go. Are you actually telling me that they will be able to maintain their ATSB required $800 million, when they only have $1.1 billion. That equates to having just $300 mil in cash to get them through another year.
Bet taken, where are you located so I can get my free beer.
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So your point is the 175 would be a totally new a/c from the 170, and subject to a whole new shakeout than the 170. That's funny. You mention the 175 let's look at Airbus. Knock Knock McFly? Now you're talking to yourself.
G4G5
No, I am talking to you and the ironic thing is that you answered. What I am saying is that they are planning on bring 4 totally new, different airframes to the market place at one time, the 170/175/190 &195. Are you telling me that this can be done with out ANY difficulties?
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How popular is the A319? Pretty popular.
G4G5
Really what percentage of 319s do you think are sold Vs the 320? Even better how may A318's are out there? History has taught us that the smallest airframe traditionally sells the worst. Are you saying that this is not the case?
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That for the first time the 175 will out sell the 190? No.
G4G5
Then why are you arguing that LUV will eventually purchase the smaller airframe? If history has taught us one thing more people will be flying in the future. LUV can create demand with their ticket prices if they have the supply. You said "the CASM's on the 190 were on par with those of the 175." If the costs of flying the 195 are even remotely close to the 170/175, why choose the smaller aircraft? Jetblue seems to think along those lines.
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Well, I believe the decision at LGB to reduce B6's slots to 22 had something to do with that deal. But they still run a handful of flights down from OAK that do quite nicely, thankyou. B6 has chosen to use their assets for most of the slots at LGB for transcon. Are they making money? Well most of the flights are full, but yields are small, but I believe yes they are. The key for B6 by 2007 on the West Coast will be attrition of the other majors. Gates will begin to open up an LAX as UAL, UAIR, ATA, DL reduce flights or liquidate. As the infrastructure opens up, you will see B6 take on WN directly......it's inevitable.
G4G5
Again you ignore the question, how did they do in a fare war with LUV? You can talk slots out of LGB, the bottom line is they got their butts kicked because LUV has the assets to sell $39 seats to and from LAS all day long. I'm not bashing B6. In fact it's smart to get out. Why put an aircraft into a money losing fare war when you can get higher yield someplace else? But yet you continue to suggest this, is a good idea. My point is, you can put the 190 or the A320 or AA can put an MD80 up against LUV. Whomever whatever, they will lose. They are then low, cost 800 pound guerilla that drives the domestic fare structure.
As far as gate space, it doesn't come for free. It costs big money. IF UAL ever decides to reduce on the West coast those gates will no doubt be part of an asset sale, not just returned for free so that B6 can have them. The same goes for all the others. I will spell it out for you, its very rudimentary. If people want to go there and it has the possibility of making money, like your example LAX. Then it is worth something of value. Hence it will not be for free and their will be quite a lot of competition. LUV and AA are not just going to say, "we don't need the gates, give them to B6." If B6 or anyone else wants to expand their presence in LAX they will do it by paying big for a single gate or two just to get a foot in the door, subsequently they will face the vex of the others vying to maintain market share. This does not sound like a high yield proposition to me.
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The 737 is still cheaper the then 190.
Then why don't they publicly refute Embraer on their website? I guess that would cost too much money.
G4G5
No,
How many 190/195's are out on the line flying for air carriers? How do you expect Boeing or Airbus to publicly refute the numbers that another mfr., their is no real data, their are none out on the line, it's still a paper aircraft to Boeing and Airbus. The question becomes, why would you even acknoledge a paper aircraft, that has not effected you? They are not about to spend on cent helping to market the 190. Can you please provide a link to where Embraer compairs the costs of the 737-800 to the 190? I could not find anything on their web site. thanks.
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G4G5
Years. Let's take the G4 that I fly. It has RR Tays on it. Their are over 500 G4's currently flying not to mention all the Foker 100's that are flying with RR Tays. FACT, the cost to overhaul the GE's on the 737 is still cheaper then the cost to overhaul the RR TAY. The same goes for brakes and associated rotable components. Training, what could be cheaper then FREE. All LUV pilots come with their type ratings. Are you actually going to try and tell us that their is an airline out there that has the resources available to get fuel at better hedged prices then LUV? If you are then you creditability is dropping quickly.
Lowcur
Talk about being all over the place, stop rambling. Buying futures is dependent upon the continued up-tick of oil. If it continues, then LUV will do quite nicely. If it flatens out or recedes, then the advantage eventually goes away.
G4G5,
I see that I need to keep it simple for you. The CF34 is an expensive motor to operate! Normal wear and tear items like engine overhauls, brakes, & rotable components are not covered under warranty. They cost money and come directly out of the operators pocket. When I was working as an A&P I had to send out a Challenger with CF34's for an overhaul, 10 years ago my cost for 2 motor's at TBO was $1.2 million. If you compare this to the R/R Tay on the 500+ G4's and the too many to name F100s, it is significantly greater. My cost for two Tays at overhaul 10 years ago was $750 million. The original design application for the CF34 was the A10 warthog. The gov does not care about the cost of engine overhauls. They wanted an extremely high bypass engine. The logic was that ground fire, shrapnel or FOD would be directed through the bypass not effecting the core. Subsequently what you have is an engine that's core is very small and has to work tremendously hard. It next application was the Challenger 601. Corporate flt dept's typically do not care about the cost of the overhaul either (if they can afford to operate one, one assumes they have the money). Typical TBO's for the CF34 are between 6000-7000 hours. It's third application, some 10 years later, was for the airlines, the Bombardier CRJ.
Unlike the CFM56 on the 737, that engine was originally designed for the commerical market. The typical TBO break down on the CFM56 run between 10,000 and 14,000 hours. It can stay on the aircraft 30-50% longer, before needing an overhaul! This is huge.
You can try and spin it anyway you want the CF56 is a cheaper motor to operate. That's just the way it is for motor's they are not all created equal and do not cost the same amounts to repair.
Now what about other components like brakes and pumps? How many rebuilt hyd pumps are available for the Embraer 170 series? What about vendors capable of rebuilding brakes? These are huge advantages that the 737 has and will take years if ever for the 170 series to catch up.
We shall see! )
