Jetblew Is MESSED up!

[MikeSF340]

I was on the call and that's not exactly how it happened. A caller was worried about what the cost of attrition would be to JetBlue. Rob stated that from a pure numbers standpoint it is cheaper for people to leave and be replaced with guys on first year pay. This is not rocket science, everyone knows this. I am NOT a juicer or a big Rob supporter, but I do think this is being taken a little out of context.

 

[N311HK]

It's not rocket science. But he admitted and has said they are prepared for the attrition. Meaning we are more expandable than we think. And with him saying that he basically said the pilots have no leverage. The whole wait and see when everyone leaves mantra means nothing.

 

[pilotpayne]

He's not trying to inspire, he's trying to use fear. He basically said we re all expendable and the Blue is prepared and has been for what's going to happen in the next couple years.

You are using fear as well.
You are taking what RM said totally out on context to fit your argument.
I am not happy with the pea and have sent in a card and an updated card but please stop running around the internet saying things that are not true.

 

[N311HK]

It's not fear. He just said from a numbers standpoint you/I/we are expendable because lower cost labor can replace us. They are aware, have been aware, have a plan in place for the consequences of this PEA. What don't you understand. Their pieces are in place, ours or not. We have no leverage. You really have no idea what's ahead and the battle that is about to ensue with a union coming on property.

 

[pilotpayne]

It's not fear. He just said from a numbers standpoint you/I/we are expendable because lower cost labor can replace us. They are aware, have been aware, have a plan in place for the consequences of this PEA. What don't you understand. Their pieces are in place, ours or not. We have no leverage. You really have no idea what's ahead and the battle that is about to ensue with a union coming on property.

I am so glad you know of what I am and not aware of.
Look HK I came for a company the had good relations with thier pilots for the most part until they decided that it cost to much and decided to treat the pilots as the enemy not the solution (sound like anything you know?). I worked for ALPA as a Pro Standards member as well as chairman for over four years. So yes I am very aware of what is coming in faCT I have helped move that along not by sending one but two cards. So you can come down from your high horse and understand that some people have other opinions. The quote is out of context and you know it. But it is very true that replacing a senior guy with a junior guy saves money, until the point where you can't fly your schedules, you park planes, your training department falls apart, you blow your budget by putting out tons of rsa's and the company loses money. At that point jetblue will be looking for a new COO if that in fact happens.

 

[oldxfr8dog]

RM has said that on more than one occasion and by accepting a 200 pilot attrition shows that they really don't care. We are cost units and nothing more. I'm sure that there is some bean counter equation for training expense/longevity expense vs. retention expense.
I'm glad that you recognize this, by sending in your card x 2.

I no longer care either...
I'm aggresively seeking other employment. Unfortunately, I'm too old to take advantage of the coming good 121 times.

 

[Andy]

I was on the call and that's not exactly how it happened. A caller was worried about what the cost of attrition would be to JetBlue. Rob stated that from a pure numbers standpoint it is cheaper for people to leave and be replaced with guys on first year pay. This is not rocket science, everyone knows this. I am NOT a juicer or a big Rob supporter, but I do think this is being taken a little out of context.

While it's true that it's cheaper to replace senior workers with lower cost first year employees, there's a large initial training cost so there's a certain amount of time before training costs are recouped. The general rule of thumb I've always heard is ~2 years. And some of those pilot losses will trigger multiple training events so the time to recoup training costs will be higher.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the total pilot headcount at JBLU ~2400? Losing 200 pilots in a year is more than 8% of the pilot population. An attrition rate that high is going to also cause some scheduling problems. I'm not buying that this will save JBLU money.

 

[Splert]

We own the sim, the building, the lights are always on, the A/C too, the instructors are on salary, the type rides are in the sim, IOE instructors are paid the same if they are on IOE or not.

About the only additional cost is a new ipad and uniforms and even those can be hand-me-downs. Subtract the $1800 in seed and HR paid for by employee pay roll deductions which the corp keeps it is about a wash.

 

[skidbuggy]

What's a lift or NPS?

 

[ExpWayVis31]

I know that the origional plan for B6 was that only the pilots were considered Career Employees, everyone else were considered short term employees.

Now even the pilots are leaving, takes the airline business to a new low.

Anybody know what the status of the B6 flight attendants efforts to unionize?

 

[pilotpayne]

We own the sim, the building, the lights are always on, the A/C too, the instructors are on salary, the type rides are in the sim, IOE instructors are paid the same if they are on IOE or not.

About the only additional cost is a new ipad and uniforms and even those can be hand-me-downs. Subtract the $1800 in seed and HR paid for by employee pay roll deductions which the corp keeps it is about a wash.

So all of that is done for free?

Come on splert, you know it costs money to train pilots.
Yes there is a point it's a wash but after that the cost to the company can add up fast. Its one thing to have OSC working 24/7 but if we start having operational issues because of staffing or start parking planes those costs will shoot up.

 

[N311HK]

So the COO of a billion dollar operation is incorrect telling shareholders they're ready for attrition? Are you kidding? Whatever helps you swallow this PEA and the fact the group has no leverage. Keep lying to yourself. We ve been fleeced and you know it. And there's nothing you or I can do about it. At no point will there be parking A'C due to low staffing. Keep dreaming. I'll show them by not cleaning the back. It's over team. We lost.

 

[Splert]

So all of that is done for free?

Come on splert, you know it costs money to train pilots.
Yes there is a point it's a wash but after that the cost to the company can add up fast. Its one thing to have OSC working 24/7 [NEW SUBJECT --->)but if we start having operational issues because of staffing or start parking planes those costs will shoot up.

Variable training costs and operational risk are two different subjects. But what we were commenting on is that the ADDITIONAL cost of training over what is already sunk or fixed is MINIMAL and is oft overstated by those that think attrition financially HURTS BlueJet.

It doesn't and IMO ELT wants pilots to leave as it is a short sited BENEFIT to CASM.

Parking aircraft will not happen regardless of how short we get. Bank on it!!!

 

[pilotpayne]

So the COO of a billion dollar operation is incorrect telling shareholders they're ready for attrition? Are you kidding? Whatever helps you swallow this PEA and the fact the group has no leverage. Keep lying to yourself. We ve been fleeced and you know it. And there's nothing you or I can do about it. At no point will there be parking A'C due to low staffing. Keep dreaming. I'll show them by not cleaning the back. It's over team. We lost.

Do you talk to yourself often?
I didn't say anything about the COO, just that there is a point where it becomes more expensive to have people leave than to keep them.

 

[pilotpayne]

Variable training costs and operational risk are two different subjects. But what we were commenting on is that the ADDITIONAL cost of training over what is already sunk or fixed is MINIMAL and is oft overstated by those that think attrition financially HURTS BlueJet.

It doesn't and IMO ELT wants pilots to leave as it is a short sited BENEFIT to CASM.

Parking aircraft will not happen regardless of how short we get. Bank on it!!!

So they said 200 guys was what they are planning for, what if they have 400 leave? We have planes coming and need to hire 150-250 for just that. So jetblue can train 650 pilots in a year? I am no finance guy but there is a point where attrition can hurt jetBlue. But hey you guys know all.

 

[Splert]

If we lose 600 then expect others pilots to start flying our routes with our aircraft.

 

[Andy]

Variable training costs and operational risk are two different subjects. But what we were commenting on is that the ADDITIONAL cost of training over what is already sunk or fixed is MINIMAL and is oft overstated by those that think attrition financially HURTS BlueJet.

It doesn't and IMO ELT wants pilots to leave as it is a short sited BENEFIT to CASM.

Parking aircraft will not happen regardless of how short we get. Bank on it!!!

Splert, you've understated the costs of training pilots. How much do pilots get paid while in training? Housing costs? Could those instructor pilots be flying the line rather than training new hires? How about interview costs? There are a lot of costs associated with attrition; some of those may be sunk costs, but spooling up your company to hire 200 pilots/yr is not cheap.
I don't know what the progression is at JBLU; does it go from E190FO > E190CA > A320FO > A320CA? If so, it's unlikely that there would be very many single training events for each pilot that leaves. If you're losing a lot of A320FOs, that would create 3 training events - a whole lot more costly than a single training event because you now have 3 pilots that you're paying and housing for several weeks that aren't producing any revenue.

Your management is telling you a best case scenario when they tell you that it will be cheaper to hire new pilots - I'm sure that there are multiple pilot loss scenarios that have them very concerned.
... didn't one of JBLU's management call Delta and ask them to delay recall of the 30+ pilots (my understanding is that they were all A320CAs) for a few months? I read something about that; don't recall the exact details though.

 

[Smarta$$]

Splert, you've understated the costs of training pilots. How much do pilots get paid while in training? Housing costs? Could those instructor pilots be flying the line rather than training new hires? How about interview costs? There are a lot of costs associated with attrition; some of those may be sunk costs, but spooling up your company to hire 200 pilots/yr is not cheap.
I don't know what the progression is at JBLU; does it go from E190FO > E190CA > A320FO > A320CA? If so, it's unlikely that there would be very many single training events for each pilot that leaves. If you're losing a lot of A320FOs, that would create 3 training events - a whole lot more costly than a single training event because you now have 3 pilots that you're paying and housing for several weeks that aren't producing any revenue.

Your management is telling you a best case scenario when they tell you that it will be cheaper to hire new pilots - I'm sure that there are multiple pilot loss scenarios that have them very concerned.
... didn't one of JBLU's management call Delta and ask them to delay recall of the 30+ pilots (my understanding is that they were all A320CAs) for a few months? I read something about that; don't recall the exact details though.

Unfortunately, also factored into the equation is the amount of money it would cost to try and retain those pilots.

A-B=C

A=training costs

B=savings from 1st year pilots salary

C=cost of a contract good enough to retain pilots

Probably don't have the equation perfect, but we all get the idea.

 

[Splert]

Splert, you've understated the costs of training pilots. How much do pilots get paid while in training? Housing costs? Could those instructor pilots be flying the line rather than training new hires? How about interview costs? There are a lot of costs associated with attrition; some of those may be sunk costs, but spooling up your company to hire 200 pilots/yr is not

$2,500
Not much as concur shows costs at 60 a night.
Salaried and many are not on our seniority list
Chief pilots and people dept are on salary, pins is 5 hours

Jetblue is very different in that even those fools that show up at conferences are doing it for free. Should have heard the cat fight at WIA conference.

The saving are substantial as the cost of an FO between years 5 - 10 is greater than 1 - 3.

 

[kommutrdog]

Should have heard the cat fight at WIA conference.

Oh do tell!!