JB v/s SWA

[Captain Overs]

SWA is on top, with some remaining up potential and a lot of down potential. I'll explain later.

JetBlue is up and coming and I'd speculate that the chances of up to down are 50/50.

Obviously, SWA is more stable and certainly more of a known. Even though their growth continues, they are basically a mature organization. My earlier mention of down potential comes from my belief that SWA is not imune to market pressure in the pilot wage department. It doesn't matter how people friendly SWA is, they can't continue paying half again to twice the going rate for a narrowbody pilot. The pay cut requests, or demands will take their toll on the work environment at SWA. On the upside, you'll not have to learn but one airplane for the next twenty or so years, and SWA has the best management in the business, so they WILL be here.

JetBlue is growing and therefore unstable. They could get raises, or paycuts. The current base structure will almost inevitabally evolve. You could get hired at B6 and find yourself junior assigned to a new crewbase as the company grows, etc.

I'd take B6 if I lived in Florida, New York or Caleeeefornia, and was a young man who didn't mind rolling the dice. The upside could/can be enormous. Otherwise, SWA offers a better assortment of base choices and less of a question of the future.

Congrats and if you don't mind telling, how did a civilian pilot get concurrent offers from two of the three hiring major airlines?

Did you mean to sound arrogant when you asked how a civilian pilot got concurrent offers from two of the three majors hiring?

 

[Juvat]

..............

 

[Juvat]

Do the math. JetBlue has four times the debt on one tenth the revenues of SWA. SWA pays submarket interest, JBLU pays junk rates. Interest rates are going up and are going to be a much bigger liability on JetBlue than even fuel. Western Pacific proved that no airline has a long term future on just one power hub. SWA has a least a dozen and counting. Costs are king and JB has let them get out of control. SWA maintains the lowest milage adjusted costs even with the highest wages. Fuel hedges helped SWA but only because they had the money laying around to buy them. Without fuel hedges, SWA would have still not lost money as they would have had the fuel hedge money for something else.
In all honesty, I would go to SkyWest, or even Horizon before JetBlue. JetBlue has done some amazing things and they are a very attractive carrier in many ways, but Neeleman is a starter, not a finisher, and JetBlue is still far from out of the startup woods yet. Having to get rid of airplanes that are out of warranty because you can't afford the routine maintenance screams "Danger Will Robinson!" The decision to buy the Embraer's was fatally flawed and happend in part because Neeleman served a Church mission in Brazil and has a soft spot in his heart for the country and the language. They used that and his ego to win him over. Makes for sentimental copy but bad business decisions. I predict that JetBlue will suffer a palace coup in which Neeleman will be forced out. The new kids on the block will be greenshades from outside the industry who will try and turn the airline around on the backs of the already lean employees. JetBlue will either merge with someone, or be gone in fiveish years. SWA will be flying our great grandkids to Mars in the ugliest paintjobs in space.

That is one of the most well-written posts I've read here in a long time. I like edgy commentary that uses facts and cuts to the chase. Good job.

 

[Juvat]

Did you mean to sound arrogant...

Well, that's the problem with written media isn't it. There IS NO sound. The only sounds you're hearing are whatever is bouncing off the bony insides of your own skull when you read these posts. If you are "hearing" the sounds of arrogance, then it could possibly be something preconceived that you are bringing to the table.

More to the point, what would it matter if the author of a post "sounds" arrogant, intentionally or not? Does a person's delivery change the validity of his argument? I think a person's statements should be judged on the merit of their logic and evidence, not on the delivery.

Just a thought...I like to keep things intellectually honest. When somebody gets browbeaten because of a perceived problem with the delivery, then it causes everyone to lose sight of the point.

Rant off--sorry for the thread creep. :beer:

 

[bluejuice787]

That is one of the most well-written posts I've read here in a long time. I like edgy commentary that uses facts and cuts to the chase. Good job.

Well written yes, accurate no. This is why I say that:

Jetblue does not pay "junk" interest rates. While SW does have low costs after high salaries it is certainly not the lowest. That distinction goes to JB.

Well written prose may gather the weak of mind but fact always wins.

Juice

 

[bluejuice787]

Do the math. JetBlue has four times the debt on one tenth the revenues of SWA. SWA pays submarket interest, JBLU pays junk rates. Interest rates are going up and are going to be a much bigger liability on JetBlue than even fuel. Western Pacific proved that no airline has a long term future on just one power hub. SWA has a least a dozen and counting. Costs are king and JB has let them get out of control. SWA maintains the lowest milage adjusted costs even with the highest wages. Fuel hedges helped SWA but only because they had the money laying around to buy them. Without fuel hedges, SWA would have still not lost money as they would have had the fuel hedge money for something else.
In all honesty, I would go to SkyWest, or even Horizon before JetBlue. JetBlue has done some amazing things and they are a very attractive carrier in many ways, but Neeleman is a starter, not a finisher, and JetBlue is still far from out of the startup woods yet. Having to get rid of airplanes that are out of warranty because you can't afford the routine maintenance screams "Danger Will Robinson!" The decision to buy the Embraer's was fatally flawed and happend in part because Neeleman served a Church mission in Brazil and has a soft spot in his heart for the country and the language. They used that and his ego to win him over. Makes for sentimental copy but bad business decisions. I predict that JetBlue will suffer a palace coup in which Neeleman will be forced out. The new kids on the block will be greenshades from outside the industry who will try and turn the airline around on the backs of the already lean employees. JetBlue will either merge with someone, or be gone in fiveish years. SWA will be flying our great grandkids to Mars in the ugliest paintjobs in space.

You sound like a Michael Moore type. You use talking points with no real idea of the validity. You should study one of your comments to its' ultimate fruition. You might be hard pressed to find fact with any statement you made in this post. It is easy to paint with broad brush strokes because detail in unnecessary. For instance, what real data do you have to support the notion that purchasing the EMB was bad business. Give me numbers, operational data, customer reception or anything to suport your claim.

I do agree that SW's purchase of fuel hedges was incredibly savvy and part of larger business decision in line with their conservative model. I also believe they would be profitable with out them.

Oh and I was unaware we are selling five of our AC because we cannot afford MX. Thanks for the heads-up.

Juice

 

[JP4user]

There would even be a doubt over the choice?

Who is selling airplanes now due to heavy check costs?
Who is already deviating from a their original business plan?
Who is paying an insulting rate of pay on an aircraft (ties in with above)?
Who is through peer pressure intimdating you to clean airplanes?
Who is making you sign a contract to work there?
Who is forecasting the potential to sell more aircraft due to financial difficulties?

 

[Oh-ryan]

I got offers from swa and JB. I've made up my mind with swa but any input to the other would be welcome.

Signed
The luckiest guy on my street,!!!!!!!!!!.

Mr. Lucky,

Since you've already chosen SWA, why don't you give us your reasons for doing so instead of tossing a grenade and leaving the room... never to be heard from again.

 

[Baronman]

I'm young...I'd go to JetBlue. Seems like a hipper bunch, plus I'd rather not be flying around regional style for the rest of my life in a 737. Oh yeah, and I'd rather avoid the cattle car passengers that fill those 737s, I avoid them normally by never setting foot in a WallMart.

Of course I do think that JetBlue will pull through this economic period we are passing through. Too good a product!

 

[SWA/FO]

Jetblue does not pay "junk" interest rates. While SW does have low costs after high salaries it is certainly not the lowest. That distinction goes to JB.

How come your not making money? You not charging the right amount of money to sell your "lowest" cost product?

What are you guys smoking? Southwest anyday over JB. Paycuts are not coming. No other workforce is as productive as Southwest's. We are not managed by your management team. We will continue to kick @$$ and take names. You want to be part of that or do you want to take more of chance in an industry like this?

 

[clickclickboom]

There would even be a doubt over the choice?

Who is selling airplanes now due to heavy check costs?
Who is already deviating from a their original business plan?
Who is paying an insulting rate of pay on an aircraft (ties in with above)?
Who is through peer pressure intimdating you to clean airplanes?
Who is making you sign a contract to work there?
Who is forecasting the potential to sell more aircraft due to financial difficulties?

Yes JB is the first company in the history of aviation to have 2 loss quarters and respond to that by developing numerous focus groups of employees to come up with cost cutting measures that currently amount to a savings of over $100,000,000 per year..

Do other airlines do that? No they dump pensions, go bankrupt and steal from the pilots..

Do you think your cushy corporate job would do the same? I doubt the board of directors will come to you to find ways to cut costs.. They would just dump the plane kick you out on the street and buy a fractional..

Peer Pressure to Clean the Plane? In our world it's called teamwork and I am happy to participate everyday.

 

[Mach 80]

I'm young...I'd go to JetBlue. Seems like a hipper bunch, plus I'd rather not be flying around regional style for the rest of my life in a 737. Oh yeah, and I'd rather avoid the cattle car passengers that fill those 737s, I avoid them normally by never setting foot in a WallMart.

Of course I do think that JetBlue will pull through this economic period we are passing through. Too good a product!

Have you looked at SWA's routes lately? Plenty of coast to coast flights or two legs across the country. Lots of near 3 hour flights up and down the East Coast. The beauty of it is you can do short haul, long haul, or a combination.

The 737-700 is not the 737 of the past. Similar to the 757.

JB a hipper bunch? They sure are if you like the greasy haired Puerto Rican-New York male flight attendant thing.

 

[SWA/FO]

I'm young...I'd go to JetBlue. Seems like a hipper bunch, plus I'd rather not be flying around regional style for the rest of my life in a 737. Oh yeah, and I'd rather avoid the cattle car passengers that fill those 737s, I avoid them normally by never setting foot in a WallMart.

I think its spelled Walmart.. Me too, I'd never set foot in a Walmart either.. I love to pay more for the same thing. I like driving all over town searching for the higher quality store to buy my laundry soap from.

You're years away from even flying for a regional outfit and decades from flying a B737 or A320. Last time I checked, the C-152 does not qualify as turbine PIC. You have no idea what your talking about. Now, I use to say dumb stuff too, when I was sitting on that CFI couch waiting for the next student to walk in the door. Thankfully, the internet was not around then. You need to go back to the CFI board and log some time there. You are not a player here.

One word: PROFITS. We make money with 70% Load factors. Just think what our profits would be if we had JB load factor?

Barry Sanders would have run for 2000 yards a season every season if he had the same line to run behind as Emmitt Smith.

 

[ivauir]

While SW does have low costs after high salaries it is certainly not the lowest. That distinction goes to JB.

Huh? What costs (other than labor) does JB have that are lower than SWA's? I'm not flaming, I just want to know. I'll tell you what I DO know and that is that SWA makes a profit with the lowest load factor in the industry and with low fares. I'm no airline analyst, but I am pretty sure that is a sign that our costs must be the lowest...

I'm sure the JB product is great, and I'm sure it is a great place to work.

 

[JP4user]

Yes JB is the first company in the history of aviation to have 2 loss quarters and respond to that by developing numerous focus groups of employees to come up with cost cutting measures that currently amount to a savings of over $100,000,000 per year..

They are also the first company in the history of aviation to sell aircraft with a two quarter loss becasue if maintenance costs.

Focus groups? LOL....if your brilliant management can't come up with ideas themselves they need to move on. Besides, the kumbaya about focus groups are just bones being thrown to keep the employees distracted until another serving of kool aid comes out.

Do other airlines do that? No they dump pensions, go bankrupt and steal from the pilots..

Those other airlines will eventually get back on track. Even so, the contracts left in place in the wake of destruction still aren't bad compared to yours. What does that 190 pay again? What A funds do you have? If you run afoul of the kool aid police who protects you if your contract isn't renewed?

Do you think your cushy corporate job would do the same?

No.

I doubt the board of directors will come to you to find ways to cut costs.. They would just dump the plane kick you out on the street and buy a fractional..

LMAO....of you only knew. Fractional? LMAO!!!

Peer Pressure to Clean the Plane? In our world it's called teamwork and I am happy to participate everyday.

Teamwork is just another cute term for getting someone to do something for free. But when you are at the point of dumping aircraft due to heavy check costs, every pillow you place will be one less thing that minimum wage foreign national has to do.