JB v/s SWA

[:-)]

Nice attitude.uke: Thanks for your support. Other pilots groups might be driving around the same number of seats, but it takes a lot more of them to be as productive as a Southwest pilot. As far as which airline to pick, go with the one that you really want to work for the most. There is only one guarantee in the airline world, and that is there is no guarantee.

You know neither my attitude nor my level of support for you and your SWA brothers. But economics is no respector of attitude, so I'll stick to my assertion that SWA will eventually have to deal with the realities of the pilot market. Unless your efficiency is double that of the rest of us, then you will be asked to get into line. I'm not wishing bad upon you, I'm actually worried for you..........
and for the rest of us.

BTW, since this is about SWA vs B6, I give you a much better chance of continued success than I do B6; even as I predict that you will take some kind of pay cut over the next few years. If you were a hub and spoke legacy, I'd predict some kind of efficiency increase, but I don't see much chance of you boys being any more efficient that the present, which leaves only a pay cut. You should be praying for a dramatic recovery in the legacy group that leads to pay raises for us. Then your wages will return to being a bargain for your employer.

Sincerely, good luck.

 

[Widow's Son]

Do the math. JetBlue has four times the debt on one tenth the revenues of SWA. SWA pays submarket interest, JBLU pays junk rates. Interest rates are going up and are going to be a much bigger liability on JetBlue than even fuel. Western Pacific proved that no airline has a long term future on just one power hub. SWA has a least a dozen and counting. Costs are king and JB has let them get out of control. SWA maintains the lowest milage adjusted costs even with the highest wages. Fuel hedges helped SWA but only because they had the money laying around to buy them. Without fuel hedges, SWA would have still not lost money as they would have had the fuel hedge money for something else.
In all honesty, I would go to SkyWest, or even Horizon before JetBlue. JetBlue has done some amazing things and they are a very attractive carrier in many ways, but Neeleman is a starter, not a finisher, and JetBlue is still far from out of the startup woods yet. Having to get rid of airplanes that are out of warranty because you can't afford the routine maintenance screams "Danger Will Robinson!" The decision to buy the Embraer's was fatally flawed and happend in part because Neeleman served a Church mission in Brazil and has a soft spot in his heart for the country and the language. They used that and his ego to win him over. Makes for sentimental copy but bad business decisions. I predict that JetBlue will suffer a palace coup in which Neeleman will be forced out. The new kids on the block will be greenshades from outside the industry who will try and turn the airline around on the backs of the already lean employees. JetBlue will either merge with someone, or be gone in fiveish years. SWA will be flying our great grandkids to Mars in the ugliest paintjobs in space.

 

[bvt1151]

Depends on if you still want to be working there in 5 years or not.

 

[GogglesPisano]

SWA will be flying our great grandkids to Mars in the ugliest paintjobs in space.

Wrong. They'll never do international. Plus the 737 doesn't have the range.

 

[Tejas-Jet]

The question is whether they can continue to do so after their hedges run out.

The hedges run out??? Being satisfied with the profits, I would then guess that the SWA management is doing nothing to improve upon their hedge positions?

Tejas

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

Once upon a time I was attending some arcane finance class in college, in an attempt to learn some of the in's-and-outs of the business side of this business, when the discussion turned to a certain Texas-based airline. At the time, even though they had started as basically a regional airline, they had grown to some longer routes, including several international destinations. They were probably the healthiest airline of the era, at least on paper. They were known for sound, if sometimes unconventional business practices, the flamboyance of one of their founding members, and their ability to make a profit, even when others were drowning in debt. They were also known for the distinctive, and by some accounts, downright ugly livery of their fleet. Among would-be pilots, they were known for being a "no-a$$hole" airline. You had to be recommended by somebody, ideally several "somebody's," to even get an interview there. They were "Good Old Boys," the darlings of Wall Street, as well as the darlings of the industry.

"That's where I want to work!" I thought to myself, as I started contemplating how I would cultivate the connections I'd need to get a recommendation there.

The year was 1976, the airline of course was Braniff, and less than 6 years later, they were bankrupt.

If you were to poll every pilot flying for a major airline right now, you would probably find that half of them would gladly trade their seniority at their present carrier for the same date-of-hire at one of the "Flavor of the Week" carriers that are so often mentioned on this board. That wasn't true five years ago, and it probably won't be true 5 years from now. The question before you is not "who's doing well today?," it's "who will be doing well 5-10-15 years from now" Offhand, I can't think of one single airline in recent times, that has been an "A-list" employment opportunity for more than about 5-8 years.

It's a cr@p shoot at best. Whichever one you go with, I wish you the best of luck.

 

[Russ]

"They'll never do international"

How far is Toronto, Calgary or Vancouver?
Same for Cancun, Cabo, etc.

If they decide not to go international, it won't be because of the aircraft, but rather the business isn't there.

Aloha flies the guppy a long way between the mainland and Hawaii. If your talking about Dallas to London, well then perhaps. Even then, they can have ATA do it for them.

 

[Stinkbug]

SWA will be flying our great grandkids to Mars in the ugliest paintjobs in space.

I happen to dig the blue-tops

 

[satpak77]

an older guy I know left the Air Force in 1980-ish and had offers from Eastern, Pan Am, and Southwest. He was told to go to Pan Am if he wanted security and international travel (this was the disco 70s/80s, lots of FA comments were given to him).

Eastern was the choice if he wanted to work for a "exciting new place", being the soon-to-be launch customer for the 757, and recently acquired some new L-1011's. Eastern was clearly going places.

For whatever reason, this guy went with Southwest, a lowly 737 operator.

the rest is history

the "strong guy" today could be tomorrows deceased-airline

 

[Dangerkitty]

"They'll never do international"

How far is Toronto, Calgary or Vancouver?
Same for Cancun, Cabo, etc.

If they decide not to go international, it won't be because of the aircraft, but rather the business isn't there.

Aloha flies the guppy a long way between the mainland and Hawaii. If your talking about Dallas to London, well then perhaps. Even then, they can have ATA do it for them.

Mexico and Canada is not considered international.