JB v/s SWA

[:-)]

Nice attitude.uke: Thanks for your support. Other pilots groups might be driving around the same number of seats, but it takes a lot more of them to be as productive as a Southwest pilot. As far as which airline to pick, go with the one that you really want to work for the most. There is only one guarantee in the airline world, and that is there is no guarantee.

You know neither my attitude nor my level of support for you and your SWA brothers. But economics is no respector of attitude, so I'll stick to my assertion that SWA will eventually have to deal with the realities of the pilot market. Unless your efficiency is double that of the rest of us, then you will be asked to get into line. I'm not wishing bad upon you, I'm actually worried for you..........
and for the rest of us.

BTW, since this is about SWA vs B6, I give you a much better chance of continued success than I do B6; even as I predict that you will take some kind of pay cut over the next few years. If you were a hub and spoke legacy, I'd predict some kind of efficiency increase, but I don't see much chance of you boys being any more efficient that the present, which leaves only a pay cut. You should be praying for a dramatic recovery in the legacy group that leads to pay raises for us. Then your wages will return to being a bargain for your employer.

Sincerely, good luck.

 

[Widow's Son]

Do the math. JetBlue has four times the debt on one tenth the revenues of SWA. SWA pays submarket interest, JBLU pays junk rates. Interest rates are going up and are going to be a much bigger liability on JetBlue than even fuel. Western Pacific proved that no airline has a long term future on just one power hub. SWA has a least a dozen and counting. Costs are king and JB has let them get out of control. SWA maintains the lowest milage adjusted costs even with the highest wages. Fuel hedges helped SWA but only because they had the money laying around to buy them. Without fuel hedges, SWA would have still not lost money as they would have had the fuel hedge money for something else.
In all honesty, I would go to SkyWest, or even Horizon before JetBlue. JetBlue has done some amazing things and they are a very attractive carrier in many ways, but Neeleman is a starter, not a finisher, and JetBlue is still far from out of the startup woods yet. Having to get rid of airplanes that are out of warranty because you can't afford the routine maintenance screams "Danger Will Robinson!" The decision to buy the Embraer's was fatally flawed and happend in part because Neeleman served a Church mission in Brazil and has a soft spot in his heart for the country and the language. They used that and his ego to win him over. Makes for sentimental copy but bad business decisions. I predict that JetBlue will suffer a palace coup in which Neeleman will be forced out. The new kids on the block will be greenshades from outside the industry who will try and turn the airline around on the backs of the already lean employees. JetBlue will either merge with someone, or be gone in fiveish years. SWA will be flying our great grandkids to Mars in the ugliest paintjobs in space.

 

[bvt1151]

Depends on if you still want to be working there in 5 years or not.

 

[GogglesPisano]

SWA will be flying our great grandkids to Mars in the ugliest paintjobs in space.

Wrong. They'll never do international. Plus the 737 doesn't have the range.

 

[Tejas-Jet]

The question is whether they can continue to do so after their hedges run out.

The hedges run out??? Being satisfied with the profits, I would then guess that the SWA management is doing nothing to improve upon their hedge positions?

Tejas

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

Once upon a time I was attending some arcane finance class in college, in an attempt to learn some of the in's-and-outs of the business side of this business, when the discussion turned to a certain Texas-based airline. At the time, even though they had started as basically a regional airline, they had grown to some longer routes, including several international destinations. They were probably the healthiest airline of the era, at least on paper. They were known for sound, if sometimes unconventional business practices, the flamboyance of one of their founding members, and their ability to make a profit, even when others were drowning in debt. They were also known for the distinctive, and by some accounts, downright ugly livery of their fleet. Among would-be pilots, they were known for being a "no-a$$hole" airline. You had to be recommended by somebody, ideally several "somebody's," to even get an interview there. They were "Good Old Boys," the darlings of Wall Street, as well as the darlings of the industry.

"That's where I want to work!" I thought to myself, as I started contemplating how I would cultivate the connections I'd need to get a recommendation there.

The year was 1976, the airline of course was Braniff, and less than 6 years later, they were bankrupt.

If you were to poll every pilot flying for a major airline right now, you would probably find that half of them would gladly trade their seniority at their present carrier for the same date-of-hire at one of the "Flavor of the Week" carriers that are so often mentioned on this board. That wasn't true five years ago, and it probably won't be true 5 years from now. The question before you is not "who's doing well today?," it's "who will be doing well 5-10-15 years from now" Offhand, I can't think of one single airline in recent times, that has been an "A-list" employment opportunity for more than about 5-8 years.

It's a cr@p shoot at best. Whichever one you go with, I wish you the best of luck.

 

[Russ]

"They'll never do international"

How far is Toronto, Calgary or Vancouver?
Same for Cancun, Cabo, etc.

If they decide not to go international, it won't be because of the aircraft, but rather the business isn't there.

Aloha flies the guppy a long way between the mainland and Hawaii. If your talking about Dallas to London, well then perhaps. Even then, they can have ATA do it for them.

 

[Stinkbug]

SWA will be flying our great grandkids to Mars in the ugliest paintjobs in space.

I happen to dig the blue-tops

 

[satpak77]

an older guy I know left the Air Force in 1980-ish and had offers from Eastern, Pan Am, and Southwest. He was told to go to Pan Am if he wanted security and international travel (this was the disco 70s/80s, lots of FA comments were given to him).

Eastern was the choice if he wanted to work for a "exciting new place", being the soon-to-be launch customer for the 757, and recently acquired some new L-1011's. Eastern was clearly going places.

For whatever reason, this guy went with Southwest, a lowly 737 operator.

the rest is history

the "strong guy" today could be tomorrows deceased-airline

 

[Dangerkitty]

"They'll never do international"

How far is Toronto, Calgary or Vancouver?
Same for Cancun, Cabo, etc.

If they decide not to go international, it won't be because of the aircraft, but rather the business isn't there.

Aloha flies the guppy a long way between the mainland and Hawaii. If your talking about Dallas to London, well then perhaps. Even then, they can have ATA do it for them.

Mexico and Canada is not considered international.

 

[Captain Overs]

SWA is on top, with some remaining up potential and a lot of down potential. I'll explain later.

JetBlue is up and coming and I'd speculate that the chances of up to down are 50/50.

Obviously, SWA is more stable and certainly more of a known. Even though their growth continues, they are basically a mature organization. My earlier mention of down potential comes from my belief that SWA is not imune to market pressure in the pilot wage department. It doesn't matter how people friendly SWA is, they can't continue paying half again to twice the going rate for a narrowbody pilot. The pay cut requests, or demands will take their toll on the work environment at SWA. On the upside, you'll not have to learn but one airplane for the next twenty or so years, and SWA has the best management in the business, so they WILL be here.

JetBlue is growing and therefore unstable. They could get raises, or paycuts. The current base structure will almost inevitabally evolve. You could get hired at B6 and find yourself junior assigned to a new crewbase as the company grows, etc.

I'd take B6 if I lived in Florida, New York or Caleeeefornia, and was a young man who didn't mind rolling the dice. The upside could/can be enormous. Otherwise, SWA offers a better assortment of base choices and less of a question of the future.

Congrats and if you don't mind telling, how did a civilian pilot get concurrent offers from two of the three hiring major airlines?

Did you mean to sound arrogant when you asked how a civilian pilot got concurrent offers from two of the three majors hiring?

 

[Juvat]

..............

 

[Juvat]

Do the math. JetBlue has four times the debt on one tenth the revenues of SWA. SWA pays submarket interest, JBLU pays junk rates. Interest rates are going up and are going to be a much bigger liability on JetBlue than even fuel. Western Pacific proved that no airline has a long term future on just one power hub. SWA has a least a dozen and counting. Costs are king and JB has let them get out of control. SWA maintains the lowest milage adjusted costs even with the highest wages. Fuel hedges helped SWA but only because they had the money laying around to buy them. Without fuel hedges, SWA would have still not lost money as they would have had the fuel hedge money for something else.
In all honesty, I would go to SkyWest, or even Horizon before JetBlue. JetBlue has done some amazing things and they are a very attractive carrier in many ways, but Neeleman is a starter, not a finisher, and JetBlue is still far from out of the startup woods yet. Having to get rid of airplanes that are out of warranty because you can't afford the routine maintenance screams "Danger Will Robinson!" The decision to buy the Embraer's was fatally flawed and happend in part because Neeleman served a Church mission in Brazil and has a soft spot in his heart for the country and the language. They used that and his ego to win him over. Makes for sentimental copy but bad business decisions. I predict that JetBlue will suffer a palace coup in which Neeleman will be forced out. The new kids on the block will be greenshades from outside the industry who will try and turn the airline around on the backs of the already lean employees. JetBlue will either merge with someone, or be gone in fiveish years. SWA will be flying our great grandkids to Mars in the ugliest paintjobs in space.

That is one of the most well-written posts I've read here in a long time. I like edgy commentary that uses facts and cuts to the chase. Good job.

 

[Juvat]

Did you mean to sound arrogant...

Well, that's the problem with written media isn't it. There IS NO sound. The only sounds you're hearing are whatever is bouncing off the bony insides of your own skull when you read these posts. If you are "hearing" the sounds of arrogance, then it could possibly be something preconceived that you are bringing to the table.

More to the point, what would it matter if the author of a post "sounds" arrogant, intentionally or not? Does a person's delivery change the validity of his argument? I think a person's statements should be judged on the merit of their logic and evidence, not on the delivery.

Just a thought...I like to keep things intellectually honest. When somebody gets browbeaten because of a perceived problem with the delivery, then it causes everyone to lose sight of the point.

Rant off--sorry for the thread creep. :beer:

 

[bluejuice787]

That is one of the most well-written posts I've read here in a long time. I like edgy commentary that uses facts and cuts to the chase. Good job.

Well written yes, accurate no. This is why I say that:

Jetblue does not pay "junk" interest rates. While SW does have low costs after high salaries it is certainly not the lowest. That distinction goes to JB.

Well written prose may gather the weak of mind but fact always wins.

Juice

 

[bluejuice787]

Do the math. JetBlue has four times the debt on one tenth the revenues of SWA. SWA pays submarket interest, JBLU pays junk rates. Interest rates are going up and are going to be a much bigger liability on JetBlue than even fuel. Western Pacific proved that no airline has a long term future on just one power hub. SWA has a least a dozen and counting. Costs are king and JB has let them get out of control. SWA maintains the lowest milage adjusted costs even with the highest wages. Fuel hedges helped SWA but only because they had the money laying around to buy them. Without fuel hedges, SWA would have still not lost money as they would have had the fuel hedge money for something else.
In all honesty, I would go to SkyWest, or even Horizon before JetBlue. JetBlue has done some amazing things and they are a very attractive carrier in many ways, but Neeleman is a starter, not a finisher, and JetBlue is still far from out of the startup woods yet. Having to get rid of airplanes that are out of warranty because you can't afford the routine maintenance screams "Danger Will Robinson!" The decision to buy the Embraer's was fatally flawed and happend in part because Neeleman served a Church mission in Brazil and has a soft spot in his heart for the country and the language. They used that and his ego to win him over. Makes for sentimental copy but bad business decisions. I predict that JetBlue will suffer a palace coup in which Neeleman will be forced out. The new kids on the block will be greenshades from outside the industry who will try and turn the airline around on the backs of the already lean employees. JetBlue will either merge with someone, or be gone in fiveish years. SWA will be flying our great grandkids to Mars in the ugliest paintjobs in space.

You sound like a Michael Moore type. You use talking points with no real idea of the validity. You should study one of your comments to its' ultimate fruition. You might be hard pressed to find fact with any statement you made in this post. It is easy to paint with broad brush strokes because detail in unnecessary. For instance, what real data do you have to support the notion that purchasing the EMB was bad business. Give me numbers, operational data, customer reception or anything to suport your claim.

I do agree that SW's purchase of fuel hedges was incredibly savvy and part of larger business decision in line with their conservative model. I also believe they would be profitable with out them.

Oh and I was unaware we are selling five of our AC because we cannot afford MX. Thanks for the heads-up.

Juice

 

[JP4user]

There would even be a doubt over the choice?

Who is selling airplanes now due to heavy check costs?
Who is already deviating from a their original business plan?
Who is paying an insulting rate of pay on an aircraft (ties in with above)?
Who is through peer pressure intimdating you to clean airplanes?
Who is making you sign a contract to work there?
Who is forecasting the potential to sell more aircraft due to financial difficulties?

 

[Oh-ryan]

I got offers from swa and JB. I've made up my mind with swa but any input to the other would be welcome.

Signed
The luckiest guy on my street,!!!!!!!!!!.

Mr. Lucky,

Since you've already chosen SWA, why don't you give us your reasons for doing so instead of tossing a grenade and leaving the room... never to be heard from again.

 

[Baronman]

I'm young...I'd go to JetBlue. Seems like a hipper bunch, plus I'd rather not be flying around regional style for the rest of my life in a 737. Oh yeah, and I'd rather avoid the cattle car passengers that fill those 737s, I avoid them normally by never setting foot in a WallMart.

Of course I do think that JetBlue will pull through this economic period we are passing through. Too good a product!

 

[SWA/FO]

Jetblue does not pay "junk" interest rates. While SW does have low costs after high salaries it is certainly not the lowest. That distinction goes to JB.

How come your not making money? You not charging the right amount of money to sell your "lowest" cost product?

What are you guys smoking? Southwest anyday over JB. Paycuts are not coming. No other workforce is as productive as Southwest's. We are not managed by your management team. We will continue to kick @$$ and take names. You want to be part of that or do you want to take more of chance in an industry like this?