I'm at 4 1/2 years and I don't recall passing up an upgrade. The junior 190 CA has slightly under 5 years and when they upgraded it was a very different story at JetBlue. I distinctly remember talking to a guy in 320 upgrade training while I was at the schoolhouse as a new hire. He had been with the company for 23 months. Nowadays a 320 FO at the 2 year mark is still on reserve. It's a possibility (a remote possibility) that some one with my seniority could get 190 CA in the next couple of bids but if they did they would be on reserve for life.
Right now a very junior 320 CA has 6.5-7 years with the company. A very senior 320 CA only has 9+ years. That's only a 3 year spread from top to bottom for a 100+ fleet of 320's. With few exceptions basically everybody than can hold 320 CA is already holding 320 CA and the few that aren't were just about to upgrade when the music stopped.
My SWAG predicts it will be at least 5 more more years before I can hold a line as a 190 CA and maybe 10 more before I can hold a line as a 320 CA. Guys that are at the bottom now may have to wait 10+ years to even sniff an upgrade and 15+ to hold a line. 20 more a/c won't change that much. In order for every guy currently on property to upgrade we'll need to double the fleet. That's another 150+ airplanes. 15+ year over year for at least a decade. I don't see that happening at all.
BTW, I'm not complaining. It is what it is and it's also the normal upgrade time for most major airlines. My only point is that the days of fast upgrades at JetBlue are long gone. That's why it's so important to get the rest of our benefits in line with other established majors. It is no longer acceptable to use the carrot of a fast upgrade to ignore the other shortcomings of our overall compensation. Yeah the money is reasonable (I still want more) but the other stuff (LTD, medical, etc, etc) needs a lot of work.
FYI I'm a 646'er, 3A'er, and ALPA OC'er.