It's official, no deal now

[General Lee]

There was no "best and final offer" opener, but there was an opener that didn't start with a wish list.

The reality is that there was never time for all the monkey motions and posturing of a traditional integration "negotiation".

Regardless, I believe the window of opportunity has come and gone.

That's o.k., we didn't come to an agreement, we each go our separate ways.

Probably true. Hey, maybe the AMR pilots are looking to hook up with the NWA guys? That would be fun, for one of the groups....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Fly4hire]

Probably true. Hey, maybe the AMR pilots are looking to hook up with the NWA guys? That would be fun, for one of the groups....
Bye Bye--General Lee

Almost as much fun as watching DALPA try and dictate SLI to UAL.

 

[On Your Six]

Almost as much fun as watching DALPA try and dictate SLI to UAL.

Your sense of "entitlement" is laughable in this economic environment.

 

[jke406]

Almost as much fun as watching DALPA try and dictate SLI to UAL.

UAL and their pilots (or whatever piece of it DAL would buy) would likely be better off than you will at your soon-to-be shrinking airline.

at least they'll get a fair shake, which is better than anyone associated with NWA will get.

 

[Fly4hire]

Delta has a massive regional jet problem on its hand. Its liability is ten times that of NWA at least. NWA's regionals are profitable right now even at $110bbl.

They are profitable at $110/bbl because they get fuel at subisdized prices that are based on ~$75/bbl while DS claims "we" are bleeding fuel dollars.

If PNCL, CPZ, and XJ had to pay street prices for fuel they'd be the biggest red line on the books.

 

[ExAF]

Sanity or Lack Thereof

Gents,

It might be a good time to relax and take a breath. The proposals aren't as far apart as you think...and the differences could be overcome.

The DAL team moved, and the NWA team moved. Both developed a new method for solving the "stagnation" issue. Within the methodology, there was/is room for BOTH sides to move without selling their souls. One side is ready to move. The other isn't...right now.

Nothing in airline negotiations happens without a deadline, and there is no deadline. (If there is, and it hasn't been made clear to both sides, then management will have gooned this)

The chipping here is stoo-pid. These are two strong airlines that have solid pilot groups.

I agree. I'm sure if the NWA MEC sent a letter to the pilots, it would say the same thing as Moak's only reverse each MEC's position. Each side on this board thinks they have all the answers and really know what is going on....I doubt it. Each side also thinks they are right and the other is "unreasonable." Each side thinks what they see as "fair" should should be readily accepted by the other as "fair." Both sides think they are right (surprise, they're pilots)! Funny how in the beginning, everyone here was shouting, "No Merger, lets go it alone," and now it's "Why can't these idiots come to an agreement and get this deal done." I tend to think the fat lady is warming up her voice, but she hasn't started singing....yet. Bring on the deadline...time will tell.

 

[Tantrum]

For those that read Richard and Ed's memo on the new business plan, did you catch one of the last sentences in that long memo?

"While we must act to keep Delta strong in the face of record high fuel prices and a worsening domestic economy, the Board of Directors and senior management will continue to explore our strategic options. As we have previously stated, we support industry consolidation as a vehicle to ensure Delta remains an industry leader. The Special Committee of our Board continues to work with our senior leadership team on strategic alternatives. The Board, at its discretion, will act in the best interest of all Delta stakeholders. While the rise in fuel and the weakening economy present near-term challenges, our long-term view remains that consolidation may be the right course of action."

As many have said, I wouldn't count on this deal being dead yet.

 

[N2264J]

No parking of mainline planes supposedly...

Reuters
Delta looks to cut 2,000 jobs
Tuesday March 18
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Delta Air Lines Inc (NYSE:DAL - News) is looking to cut 2,000 jobs, or more than 3 percent of its work force, as the No. 3 U.S. airline struggles with high fuel costs...

These reductions will be achieved partly by taking 15 to 20 mainline aircraft and 20 to 25 regional jets temporarily out of service.

High oil is an industry problem, not an RJ problem and mainline is going to feel it too. When you park RJs that are bringing people to the hub that subsequently get on a mainline aircraft, you proportionally reduce the need for all those mainline aircraft.

When oil starts pushing $150 a barrel and only the rich are flying, the airline industry isn't going to need all this capacity and being a captain for a company that operates 50 to 76 seat jet aircraft may be an OK place to be.

How do you suppose ALPA will wage it's war on the small jet and its pilot members who fly them when that happens?

 

[Occam's Razor]

I agree. I'm sure if the NWA MEC sent a letter to the pilots, it would say the same thing as Moak's only reverse each MEC's position. Each side on this board thinks they have all the answers and really know what is going on....I doubt it. Each side also thinks they are right and the other is "unreasonable." Each side thinks what they see as "fair" should should be readily accepted by the other as "fair." Both sides think they are right (surprise, they're pilots)! Funny how in the beginning, everyone here was shouting, "No Merger, lets go it alone," and now it's "Why can't these idiots come to an agreement and get this deal done." I tend to think the fat lady is warming up her voice, but she hasn't started singing....yet. Bring on the deadline...time will tell.

Our ZIPLINES will come out today.

Both sides understand the concerns that the other side has with each proposal. That's why there's a chance a deal can be made.

 

[FDJ2]

As many have said, I wouldn't count on this deal being dead yet.

They're not necessarily talking about NWA. There are other assets/strategic options available besides NWA.

No one can predict with certainty the future, but this deal is about as dead in the water as it's going to get.

Will there be a forced merger with NWA? Probably not. According to RA, mergers are very risky.

 

[FDJ2]

Our ZIPLINES will come out today.

Both sides understand the concerns that the other side has with each proposal. That's why there's a chance a deal can be made.

Occam, I love your optimism, but I don't share it.

The DAL MEC is moving on as I'm sure the NWA MEC is, or ought to be. Lee Moak's letter effectively ends the discussion from our end, he wouldn't have put it out otherwise. The NWA MEC has come back before and asked to reengage, but nothing brought forward has been even close to acceptable. Each proposal is just another version of a wish list.

I stated early on this wasn't about "getting the best deal we can get" it was about getting the fairest deal for all. A fundamental shift in approach.

I was a supporter of the merger under the right circumstances, but too much valuable time has already been wasted and I'm no longer as supportive. I'm sure many DAL pilots feel the same.

We need to attend to our own affairs. If there is something of interest proposed I'm sure our merger committee will look at it, but like I said I'm not optimistic, we've been down this road too many times already. Perhaps at this point it is best that since we can't agree, we go our separate ways. No hard feelings.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Another part of the puzzle that has only been vaguely alluded to is that management has not had the time to re-evaluate their position on the merger given the prospects for long term oil being $110. Management does not yet know what the market is going to be and a DC9 that made sense with a $70 oil assumption might not be supported in the market now.

NWA and Delta really need a 100 seat jet. CRJ200's are too small and unfortunately a CRJ700/900 is a better fit than going over capacity with a 142 seat MD88.

Jet Blue anyone. Luthansa might have really been thinking ahead defensively with their "investment."

 

[Gunfighter]

I've always felt a little sorry for the homely girl who thinks she's hot.

And even sorrier for the girl who thinks she is hot just because someone asked her to dance. It's early in the night and the really hot girls haven't even show up yet.

 

[LandGreen]

Can anyone tell me why it is such a good idea to merge with NWA with oil at $110?

The only reason DAL wanted NWA is for the Pacific. With oil @ $60 then maybe it would make sense to absorb old fleets and slowly phase them out ...but now with oil the way it is, NWA makes NO sense at all after absorbing the extremely high cost of operating those two fleets.

DAL was the first of the majors to announce cutbacks. Do you think they will be the only ones out there trimming capacity??? Who is making money nowadays in the airline business paying market prices for fuel? NOBODY!

BTW...the 50 seat RJ market...GONE...with oil the way it is today

 

[Gunfighter]

Delta's announcement today could well be one of the many parts of the overall merger plan anyway. There will be some admin, mgt and front line reductions with a merger, they are just getting some of those reductions out of the way while the pilots sort things out. Give it a couple more weeks, before declaring it over.

Trimming people now means that those job losses won't be attributed to a merger. This gets real interesting if NWA starts trimming. Imagine for a moment that RA and DS are cutting pieces ahead of the announcement. It makes the whole merger eaiser to push through because the thousands of jobs they planned to cut are already gone.

Slam dunk at the merger hearings.

 

[ExAF]

Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding.....

 

[FDJ2]

Delta's announcement today could well be one of the many parts of the overall merger plan anyway. There will be some admin, mgt and front line reductions with a merger, they are just getting some of those reductions out of the way while the pilots sort things out. Give it a couple more weeks, before declaring it over.

Trimming people now means that those job losses won't be attributed to a merger. This gets real interesting if NWA starts trimming. Imagine for a moment that RA and DS are cutting pieces ahead of the announcement. It makes the whole merger eaiser to push through because the thousands of jobs they planned to cut are already gone.

Slam dunk at the merger hearings.

Or it could be the economic reality of $110/bbl oil.

The fact is that costs for every airline will probably go up faster than revenue. Every airline needs to make adjustments.

 

[Schwanker]

My calculator shows 3446 retirements between now and 2023 and about 2300 by 2020....... Stop posting absolute crap and educate yourself before you post. Your making yourself look very stupid at this point.

THESE NUMBERS WERE POSTED BY YOUR VERY OWN GENERAL! BETWEEN NOW AND 1 JAN 2020, DAL WILL HAVE 1007 AGE 65 RETIREMENTS! MAYBE YOU SHOULD GET A NEW CALCULATOR! YOUR CURRENT ONE MAKES YOU LOOK STUPID!

DAL RETIREMENTS from our list
2013-60,
2014-75,
2015-89,
2016-136,
2017-157,
2018-218,
2019-272,
2020-348,
2021-478,
2022-567,
2023-549,
2024-544,
2025-472

 

[tomgoodman]

A disgruntled analyst's view

The press is looking for someone to blame:

Already, some Wall Street analysts are questioning whether Delta management was in fact committed to making the Northwest merger happen. To be sure, there was pressure on Delta Chief Executive Richard Anderson to negotiate a deal: Many of the hedge funds that bought Delta debt during the carrier's 2005 bankruptcy—and converted it into sizable equity stakes when the airline emerged from Chapter 11 the following year—were pushing management to pursue a merger.

And when Anderson asked the pilot unions from Delta and Northwest to find a way to combine the seniority lists for both carriers, it appeared to be a prudent move to avoid the pilot infighting that has poisoned the merger between the former US Airways Group (LCC) and America West.

But looking back, Anderson—who before joining Delta last year had served as CEO of Northwest—had to have known enough about each of the pilots' unions to think it unlikely they would find common ground. With hundreds of Delta pilots opting to retire before the bankruptcy, the remaining pilots were on average far younger than their peers at Northwest. That meant that in a merger, many Delta pilots would be bumped back to flying smaller planes—an action that would also have meant taking a pay cut.

And when Northwest pilots refused to cede too much ground on the seniority issue, Delta pilots opted to walk. "Pilots are like a bunch of spoiled kids, and it would have required adult supervision to make the merger work," says Roger King, airline analyst for CreditSights, an institutional research firm in New York. "It's a testament to management's impotence that the deal wasn't done—or more probably, to management's real desire to not do the deal. I think they pursued the merger just to get the shareholders off their backs."

--Business Week

 

[Occam's Razor]

Occam, I love your optimism, but I don't share it.

I gather. Luckily, the process doesn't depend upon your (or my) optimism.

The DAL MEC is moving on as I'm sure the NWA MEC is, or ought to be.

It might be better to be prepared to re-engage. The DAL MEC doesn't drive the need to meet. The NWA doesn't either. The "drivers" are individuals in corner offices in Wayzata, New York, and Paris.

Lee Moak's letter effectively ends the discussion from our end, he wouldn't have put it out otherwise.

Ha! Good one! I think you'd be more of an optimist if you were wise to "alternative negotiating" techniques. In baseball, it'd be called the "set-up pitch".

The February 27th "DEADLINE!" was another.

The first few "Final Offers!" fit the same general description.

The NWA MEC has come back before and asked to reengage, but nothing brought forward has been even close to acceptable. Each proposal is just another version of a wish list.

Is that rhetoric necessary? I'm not trying to be your EGPWS here, but "Pull Up!". You're getting close to to the intellectual gutter with comments like that.

I stated early on this wasn't about "getting the best deal we can get" it was about getting the fairest deal for all. A fundamental shift in approach.

"Fair" is not possible. Reasonable is possible. Likely, in fact...if both sides accept the amount of "equal blood" (a negotiating term) shed by the other. Reasonable means the position can be supported with accepted facts.

I was a supporter of the merger under the right circumstances, but too much valuable time has already been wasted and I'm no longer as supportive. I'm sure many DAL pilots feel the same.

Good! That means we're probably getting closer to the realm of "equal blood". When you're pissed...lemme know! :beer:

We need to attend to our own affairs.

If you're implication is you've been attending to OUR affairs...then "Whoop! Whoop!".

Your team's participation in all of this hasn't been a Mercy Mission to rescue the crew of a foundering ship. It's been an interest-based negotiation to do something that's never been done before. There is no blueprint for this.

I object to your characterization, unless, of course...it's another "DEADLINE!".

Some of the things we try are attempted because the alternative is worse.