Is this profession in peril?

[PAPA FOX!]

It seems that the professon will slowly get back on track. Why? Well new student starts are near an all time low and domestic demand for air travel is projected to increase at over 5%/yr for the next decade.

Yes, it is true that there is no pilot shortage at the majors now. However it IS at the regional level and it will EVENTUALLY trickly up there, just not overnight.

Simple supply and demand show that the pay can only improve from here.

 

[pianoman]

We're blue collar bus drivers and our actions reinforce that belief. Hey, let's go picket because we're unhappy with something - yeah, THAT's professional. When's the last time that you saw lawyers or doctors set up picketing or go on strike?

Ummm.... I believe picketing and going on strike is what brought this profession from basically "bus drivers" but more dangerous in the 30's to what it became in the heyday- a professional career.

Do you think companies just volunteered to pay pilots that much?

 

[CitationUltra]

It seems that the professon will slowly get back on track. Why? Well new student starts are near an all time low and domestic demand for air travel is projected to increase at over 5%/yr for the next decade.

Yes, it is true that there is no pilot shortage at the majors now. However it IS at the regional level and it will EVENTUALLY trickly up there, just not overnight.

Simple supply and demand show that the pay can only improve from here.

I agree with your basic analysis--the statistics indicate a pilot shortage. However, the problem with the theory is that the new-hire pilots are signing on for very low salaries that don't improve much over time. Supply shortages would only raise pilot salary standards if pilots withheld services unless paid at a rate congruent with the job as a "profession" instead of as laborers.

Pilots since the mid-1980s have shown no tendency to withhold services, in fact the opposite. As long as the regional airlines can hire new 250-hour pilots at $18K a year, this won't change. No bona fide "profession" has an entry-level this low on the economic scale.

 

[BOYCAPTAIN]

After all the mergers, the regional airlines will be the place to be due to the furloughs and such. No more flow backs either. I feel pretty confident, AND I don't have to worry about being some lame gear jerker, either.

I'll leave that to all you guys. LOL

hey pocono...pull your big bad RJ over to my airplane ...i need a chock!

 

[Goren]

You've got to be kidding...when the price of gas goes up, the employees (chiefly the non-management pilots) buy the gas...get a clue. (not that it should be that way...but reality stinks)

 

[Andy]

Ummm.... I believe picketing and going on strike is what brought this profession from basically "bus drivers" but more dangerous in the 30's to what it became in the heyday- a professional career.

Do you think companies just volunteered to pay pilots that much?

So picketing and striking is all it took for pilots to turn this into a professional career? Well then, that should fix everything - let's all go down and picket. That'll get things turned around.
Picketing and striking are tools that should only be used sparingly. To pull them out of the toolbag on a monthly (or even annual) basis, as is happening now, reduces their effect to zero. That's old school.
But you dodged my original statement. When's the last time that you saw doctors or lawyers picket?

 

[Occam's Razor]

Yes, it's dead.

Now move along. Nothing to see here...

(sigh)

 

[PAPA FOX!]

I agree with your basic analysis--the statistics indicate a pilot shortage. However, the problem with the theory is that the new-hire pilots are signing on for very low salaries that don't improve much over time. Supply shortages would only raise pilot salary standards if pilots withheld services unless paid at a rate congruent with the job as a "profession" instead of as laborers.

Pilots since the mid-1980s have shown no tendency to withhold services, in fact the opposite. As long as the regional airlines can hire new 250-hour pilots at $18K a year, this won't change. No bona fide "profession" has an entry-level this low on the economic scale.

I agree with that too but don't you think a large number of those will burn out after a few yrs at the regionals? It seems many will not be happy with the pay and QOL and leave the industry long before they have the hours to be competitive for the majors.

 

[PCL_128]

When's the last time that you saw doctors or lawyers picket?

Doctors and lawyers aren't unionized labor. The AMA strictly controls supply in order to hold up their profession. Lawyers are able to individually negotiate their wages because it's easy to quantify the quality of an attorney, something that is impossible for a pilot or doctor.

 

[Flopgut]

We have a bad union. That's 90% of our problem.

 

[CitationUltra]

I agree with that too but don't you think a large number of those will burn out after a few yrs at the regionals? It seems many will not be happy with the pay and QOL and leave the industry long before they have the hours to be competitive for the majors.

I would think that the pay and schedules alone would drive out many. The question then is whether or not they will be replaced others of the same ilk.

I think the central question is the use of the term "profession" and my point is that the characterization of commercial flying as a profession really ended at the point in time when the relentless assault on pilots commenced back in the 1980s. Company management set out to greatly diminish the stature of pilots, individually and as a a class, and they succeeded beyond their wildest dreams. They managed to eviscerate the pilot's primary union, ALPA, drastically undermined pilot's perceived value and self worth, and at the same time dramatically decreased the overall costs associated with pilots as a labor group.

Airline management views pilots as but another class of labor--not as a professional group, as in, for example, lawyers or doctors. They have used this to undermine pilots with other labor groups within a given company. All of this results in lower values. Add the fact that pilots themselves have gone along with this and failed to stand up for themselves, and you have a situation with rapidly diminishing returns. OR--put another way--exactly what we have seen in terms of the status of pilots since about 1985.

 

[PAPA FOX!]

Company management set out to greatly diminish the stature of pilots, individually and as a a class, and they succeeded beyond their wildest dreams. They managed to eviscerate the pilot's primary union, ALPA, drastically undermined pilot's perceived value and self worth, and at the same time dramatically decreased the overall costs associated with pilots as a labor group.

And we only have ourselves to blame for that. They could not have accomplished that against a united pilot workforce.

 

[PCL_128]

We have a bad union. That's 90% of our problem.

No, you have an apathetic, uninformed membership. That's 99% of your problem.

 

[CitationUltra]

And we only have ourselves to blame for that. They could not have accomplished that against a united pilot workforce.

It's true. In fairness it must be said that efforts to counteract this were made. However, and without rehashing the history of it here, those efforts ended with a whimper. They were not successful, and that was noted by senior management throughout the industry--they could win a labor dispute with pilots, because there was no solidarity, either among pilots, or between labor organizations. That was the genesis of the situation that pilots are in today.

 

[800Dog]

So picketing and striking is all it took for pilots to turn this into a professional career? Well then, that should fix everything - let's all go down and picket. That'll get things turned around.
Picketing and striking are tools that should only be used sparingly. To pull them out of the toolbag on a monthly (or even annual) basis, as is happening now, reduces their effect to zero. That's old school.
But you dodged my original statement. When's the last time that you saw doctors or lawyers picket?

I believe the last time I saw doctor's strike was about five years ago in Pennsylvania. Could be wrong on the state. They went on strike to protest outrageously high malpractice insurance. Cannot remember the last time my pilot group went on strike. Thats right, we never have. We continue to give and give! I just googled doctors strke america. Not only have doctors struck, they have picketed as well. You were saying?