Is on demand cargo dead?

[timeless]

I did 750 last year and I am down to 350ish for this year maybe.

That's definitely a good thing though, considering 95% of my flying is for Dover, I'm happy with less hours this year for sure.

I always check flight aware to see if any of us are flying. I don't check KFS anymore because its depressing to see you guys going to Dover.

On a relatively more cheerful note, where do you guys drink when you're stuck in YIP and dispatch has released you for the night. If we're not flying, we might as well be having a good time. Sometimes I go to the Lakeview Tavern in Belleville. It's kind of a dump, but the beer is cheap, pool is $.50 and I can walk back to the hotel. Well, if you spend a days worth or per diem there you might not be able to walk back. I also hit up a few places in Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor, but then transportation becomes an issue.

 

[timeless]

I'm afraid all hoping that this industry will come back are going to be in for a long painful ride...

I flew 1000 hours in '05, 800 in '06, 600 in '07 and if I had stayed the rest of this year, I wouldn't have broken 400 for sure! I'm afraid this business is dead or is going to die soon, like USA JETS Falcons... I feel for you guys still riding it out!

Hopefully I'm wrong and it gets busy but without a bailout from the Govt., get your resumes out to everyone!

I'm sure I way off on this, but I want one of the big three to fail. It would be a logistics nightmare for a while and we would fly more. If some plants shut down, there would be more plants running three shifts. Why put it on an airplane when third shift is idle and you have 8 extra hours to get the parts there.

Disclaimer: I just fly the trips, I don't book them. There is probably some part of the big picture that I'm missing.

If it gets any worse I don't need that number to the truck driving school because I already have my CDL. I'll just drive truck for UPS or Fedex. After I've been there for a while I'll bid an airplane line and hope nobody notices.

 

[OzBushWhacker]

Timeless: You guys have been flying quite a bit i thought.

 

[Gearmonkey]

I always check flight aware to see if any of us are flying. I don't check KFS anymore because its depressing to see you guys going to Dover.

On a relatively more cheerful note, where do you guys drink when you're stuck in YIP and dispatch has released you for the night. If we're not flying, we might as well be having a good time. Sometimes I go to the Lakeview Tavern in Belleville. It's kind of a dump, but the beer is cheap, pool is $.50 and I can walk back to the hotel. Well, if you spend a days worth or per diem there you might not be able to walk back. I also hit up a few places in Ypsilanti and Ann Arbor, but then transportation becomes an issue.

Yeah, all DoD flights out of Dover are now blocked on flight trackers now, long story kinda. We are way down though, instead of flying 3-4-5 times a week, it's 3-4 times a month lately. Released for the night at KFS? Never, lol, they've got us for 15 days straight.

 

[phr8dawg]

We are in the panic business and as long as some factory manager panics, we'll have jobs. The mattress in my bomb shelter is entirely made of jet engine plugs, seen freewheeling across the tarmac at friendly airports everywhere!

 

[Publishers]

This reminds me that when we were having a marketing meeting at Evergreen many years ago, wondering out loud what would get business going again. Someone said, we need a war, someone else said let's start one.
The economics of aviation rely on utilization and of course when things are bad, that goes way down as the fixed costs stay, well fixed.
This means fewer players every time around when the good times do return.

 

[timeless]

Timeless: You guys have been flying quite a bit i thought.

I've had a few good months this year, but things have gotten real slow lately. You guys didn't help much by putting more planes on charter.

 

[Captainzero1]

I am just curious, do the Japanese and German automakers employ you guys for just in time delivery?

 

[Gearmonkey]

I am just curious, do the Japanese and German automakers employ you guys for just in time delivery?

Yeah I've had a few for Mercedes, VW and I've done a lot more for Japanese automakers. Back just a couple years ago, HKS was a hoping place because of Nissan. Got pretty tired of staying in that crap hole 3 or 4 nights a week. There are usually a lot more for US auto though.

 

[House_X]

On demand and ACMI freight's future is all about the equipment. Places like Atlas, Jade Cargo and other 747-400 operators have the equipment needed to provide reliable long range service to private sector markets. Many operators that fly older aircraft depend on CRAFT work and can often underbid private sector work because the government contracts subsidize their bid. That's why many ACMI's places went out of business (that's how I lost my last job). 747-400 is the king of the hill and other aircraft fall short on payload and range (MD11). I remember talking with the marketing department of my last employer and they said we needed 747-400 to get the lucrative Asian cargo contracts. We never got em, so we folded.

Most likely more bankruptcies will follow if companies don’t upgrade their airframes. I miss flying freight, but I don't miss how it was poorly managed or being away from the family for 3-4 weeks at a time (never even being close to the 2 weeks as advertised).

 

[Publishers]

Ironically Atlas, Gemini, Polar, and others all were born during very tough times when the leasing companies became stuck with 747's. The put them to work when they could not lease them as did the other companies with DC10F's etc.

 

[AC560]

Ironically Atlas, Gemini, Polar, and others all were born during very tough times when the leasing companies became stuck with 747's. The put them to work when they could not lease them as did the other companies with DC10F's etc.

Polar wasn't born as a leasing company, it was a start up by a bunch of ex-Tiger guys in 93.

 

[Ill Mitch]

This guy in an MU2 is extremely unbusy. Not dead, but let's say "in critical condition and time to call the next of kin."

True dat. This MU-2 guy has seen his loads drop off by about 55% in the past 4 weeks and is hearing the couriers say "Run is gonna be cancelled" more times than he ever has.

 

[timeless]

I am just curious, do the Japanese and German automakers employ you guys for just in time delivery?

I've flown for most of the Japanese auto makers, VW, BMW, Kenworth, Caterpillar and Peterbilt. The majority of my flying is usually GM or Ford though.

As for updated equipment. On-demand freight will be the last to get it. We only run cheap stuff. You probably couldn't trade every part 135 freighter that passed through YIP in 2008 for one 747-400. It has to be an airplane that has absolutely no or few other uses. I thought ERJ 135s might find there way to freight, but then people started turning them into half price Legacys. I've also never seen a Brasilia with a big door so it might not be feasible to do it to a ERJ 135.

 

[TransMach]

Brasilia has a big door in the back!

TransMach

 

[NuGuy]

Heyas,

I don't know if this is on-topic, but along with AIR-21 putting the kibosh on the check haulers, it seems like a whole segment of the business is really in a twist.

Along with that, the no one is making piston twins anymore, and those Barons and 310s are going to be used up at some point.

In about 2 years or so, it's going to be a real bear for anyone to get piston multi time.

Nu

 

[cherry20's]

I thought they were still making seminoles... Not that it would be a check hauler or anything more than a trainer.

 

[Boris Badenov]

True dat. This MU-2 guy has seen his loads drop off by about 55% in the past 4 weeks and is hearing the couriers say "Run is gonna be cancelled" more times than he ever has.

Mine went a couple of weeks ago. We lost another one at that time, yet another goes Jan. 1st. However, the Fed in all of its weird, infinite wisdom, is threatening to bring them all back, but not until February. Puzzle that one out for me.

 

[Hung Start]

Heyas,

I don't know if this is on-topic, but along with AIR-21 putting the kibosh on the check haulers, it seems like a whole segment of the business is really in a twist.

Along with that, the no one is making piston twins anymore, and those Barons and 310s are going to be used up at some point.

In about 2 years or so, it's going to be a real bear for anyone to get piston multi time.

Nu

Ahhh, but the mighty 402, with the spar mod, will soldier on forever!!

Hung

 

[fleaflickerjoe]

Lawn-chairs and straps for seats, engine plugs for first class, cargo net for business and I guess you will just have to ******************** in the tool bag. Not much room for a lav with the cargo setup! Sounds first class to me!