Is AT or SWA hiring?

[Bobby Orr 4]

So you agree that 2300 SWA pilots will leave for the legacies.

That will be agreeing with GL.

Not even close to that number. Maybe a couple of hundred.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Can you look into your crystal ball and tell me also what it says about growth? Also while your at it what do you think next years power ball numbers are?

Growth predictions? I'll put in my 2 cents. We will contract by 10 to 15 percent in the next several years.

 

[maxblast72]

If I was a junior FO, especially on the AT side, living in the Atlanta area and looking at a west coast commute for several years, you're darn straight I'd be looking at Delta.

Chad KXXXX, the plug at AirTran on 9/27/2010 (MAD), has 417 SWA pilots below him on the ISL. How does that correspond to any junior original AirTran FO spending years on the West Coast? Sounds like you have been listening to the Magnificent Seven too much. You probably should have talked to the ATN Merger Committee more to understand the SWA system better. They spent 18 months of their lives trying to understand it.

I will bet anyone $100 that less than 100 pilots leave SWA/AAI for United, Delta, American, or USAirways over the next 3 years.

 

[maxblast72]

Growth predictions? I'll put in my 2 cents. We will contract by 10 to 15 percent in the next several years.

I will put in my 2 cents. I predict 2% ASM growth for 2013. Wall Street is predicting a $725 million net profit for 2013. As long as Obama, Geithner, and Bernanke don't totally tank the economy, I bet SWA grows ASMs in 2014 by 3-4% (primarily through more seats per departure, not block hour growth).

 

[Flying the Line]

Beginning 2014 will start to see some growth again due to DAL/Wright amendment going away.

 

[maxblast72]

Beginning 2014 will start to see some growth again due to DAL/Wright amendment going away.

Someone correct me if I am wrong, but SWA isn't gaining many extra gates with the new terminal at Love. I believe most of the ASM growth at Dallas Love in 2014 and beyond will be acheived by replacing 137/143 seat aircraft with 175 seat aircraft on routes that can justify the larger shell size (essentially same number of departures).

 

[humveedriver]

Someone correct me if I am wrong, but SWA isn't gaining many extra gates with the new terminal at Love. I believe most of the ASM growth at Dallas Love in 2014 and beyond will be acheived by replacing 137/143 seat aircraft with 175 seat aircraft on routes that can justify the larger shell size (essentially same number of departures).

Found another forum where a similar topic was discussed a year ago. Interesting discussion;

http://www.city-data.com/forum/dallas/1194828-dallas-fellow-texans-can-you-believe-4.html

 

[Skyboy722]

In fairness to the general, I did happen upon our domicile chief conducting an exit interview with an RSW FO leaving for Delta. I won't argue the wisdom, because none of us really knows, but I will concur that there are some very staggering retirement numbers at DL and elsewhere. I can see why it would be attractive. Throw in personal things, like domicile choices and equipment preferences, and we will certainly have some leave for their own reasons.

2300 of them, no.

And I think the word you keep looking for General, is STAGNANT.

 

[SAABaroowski]

I have to agree with GL. I see no bait in his posts. If I was a junior FO, especially on the AT side, living in the Atlanta area and looking at a west coast commute for several years, you're darn straight I'd be looking at Delta.
Cold hard facts is we are looking at 15+ year upgrades at this point. I would not blame any FO for making the jump.

There was a downgraded AT CA in my interview group at Spirit. I am sure they would/will leave for DAl/UAL as well. It seemed life is not very good for the AirTran guys?

 

[Remington]

There was a downgraded AT CA in my interview group at Spirit. I am sure they would/will leave for DAl/UAL as well. It seemed life is not very good for the AirTran guys?

Ouch.
2014 is a long time to wait.
Looks like USair, DAL are the way to go.

 

[Phlintstone]

There are guys leaving AT but there will not be 2300. Morale isn't too good over here and before the OSW crowd jumps in with "you should be thankful you have a job with a great company", "98% strike vote" etc the FACT of the matter is that morale is low. You cannot change a person's bidding power, family QOL, vacation bidding power (to name just a few) in a negative way and expect that person to be happy about it. When this happens they will look somewhere else for a job. But...Spirit...no way.

Phred

 

[ultrarunner]

Delta retirements...

Impressive. Nearly 65 percent of the list in the next 12 years or so. Boggle the mind on how may training events that is! Lots of movement...all good...

This from the "other" website:

Mandatory retirements:
2013 - 56
2014 - 121
2015 - 169
2016 - 225
2017 - 286
2018 - 415
2019 - 513
2020 - 602
2021 - 789
2022 - 851
2023 - 809
2024 - 805
2025 - 713
2026 - 610
2027 - 514



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Daddy]

There are guys leaving AT but there will not be 2300. Morale isn't too good over here and before the OSW crowd jumps in with "you should be thankful you have a job with a great company", "98% strike vote" etc the FACT of the matter is that morale is low. You cannot change a person's bidding power, family QOL, vacation bidding power (to name just a few) in a negative way and expect that person to be happy about it. When this happens they will look somewhere else for a job. But...Spirit...no way.

Phred

To the contrary, Phred....I think leaving for Delta or someone else may very well be a good call for AT or SWA guys at the bottom of the list depending on their situation. Age, domicile, financial situation are all factors. SWA is going to be stagnant for the foreseeable future. SWA is a great company to work for, but timing might be extremely bad for many and timing is everything in this industry. Our COO is already floating bankruptcy and furloughs as options...and just a few days before Christmas. This is the not the SWA of old. This deal was bad for pilots on both sides no matter how you look at it. If you are an east coast guy on the bottom here, your life could suck for quite awhile. The east is very senior and if you can't hold a line here, you are essentially on a B scale with a poor QOL for the forseeable future. Commuting across the country to 4 on 3 off reserve with little flying is no way to go through life. Good luck to all and I hope we can all be good to each other on the line as this is a management vs pilot problem not a pilot vs pilot problem. Like Mongo, we are just pawns in game of life.

 

[humveedriver]

Why was the COO talking bankruptcy? Doesn't your business model have to lose money to do that?

 

[redflyer65]

No you don't, but that's a different discussion.

He wasn't really talking about SW entering bankruptcy but he was talking about how all the competitors had gone thru the wash and rinse of bankruptcy protection to become more competitive. Pretty much every old school legacy.