Irony

[Fozzy]

Even if furloughs ARE coming, I hope they don't come prior to January. I'd like to see all my friends keep their jobs through the Holidays at least.

I am not sure a Jan 1 or after furlough would necessarily be a good thing for everyone.

http://www.longfellowbenefits.com/Site/LEGISLATION/ARRAof2009COBRA/tabid/510/Default.aspx

 

[ultrarunner]

There is never a good time to let people go. The changes in COBRA notwithstanding, the sooner you let an employee know, the better.

There are no small furloughs or short-duration furloughs. The cost-benefit is just not there, and Warren's boys are wicked smart in that arena.

With that said, IMO, I would think 500 to 600 is plausible, especially given the fact that the parking of a significant portion of a fleet or two would coincide.

With that said, if the law sees that number as triggering a Warn Act notice, if I recall, anything over 500 is a 90-day notice. So that would be cutting it close on the current Cobra issue.

 

[G200_PILOT]

Ultra, I'm not up to speed on the workings of the WARN Act but if they do it in stages, then what type of notice would they need to give then? Say 250 now and 250 later.

Either way, I know what you guys are saying but those that I've talked to say that it would be nice to have a job through the holidays, that's all.

 

[ultrarunner]

Ultra, I'm not up to speed on the workings of the WARN Act but if they do it in stages, then what type of notice would they need to give then? Say 250 now and 250 later.

Either way, I know what you guys are saying but those that I've talked to say that it would be nice to have a job through the holidays, that's all.

Here is an excerpt G200:

Mass Layoff: A covered employer must give notice if there is to be a mass layoff which does not result from a plant closing, but which will result in an employment loss at the employment site during any 30-day period for 500 or more employees, or for 50-499 employees if they make up at least 33% of the employer's active workforce. Again, this does not count employees who have worked less than 6 months in the last 12 months or employees who work an average of less than 20 hours a week for that employer. These latter groups, however, are entitled to notice (discussed later).

An employer also must give notice if the number of employment losses which occur during a 30-day period fails to meet the threshold requirements of a plant closing or mass layoff, but the number of employment losses for 2 or more groups of workers, each of which is less than the minimum number needed to trigger notice, reaches the threshold level, during any 90-day period, of either a plant closing or mass layoff. Job losses within any 90-day period will count together toward WARN threshold levels, unless the employer demonstrates that the employment losses during the 90-day period are the result of separate and distinct actions and causes.

 

[-FlyAuburn-]

Either way, I know what you guys are saying but those that I've talked to say that it would be nice to have a job through the holidays, that's all.

Yes, it would. If they are going to F it would be nice if they waited until next year. People just don't hire at the end of the year, and the more time to bank money and allow the rest of the economy to recover (meaning more jobs) the better. Screw COBRA, I want a JOB.

 

[YankeeEcho]

Crew Reductions Math

Everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that NJI lost 16% of it's Pilots and 18.3% of it's Flight Attendants through the voluntary early-out process vs. 5.7% and 4.2% at NJA.
This suggests to me that NJI is closer to being 'right-sized' than NJA so further involuntary reductions may have to impact NJA more than NJI.
What is the flaw in this thinking?

 

[Pervis]

YE, the company has agreed to the VSL and would furlough by reverse seniority. Your logic would also apply to different fleets within NJA or NJI as well. It makes more sense to furlough the majority from a dying fleet like the Ultra, but many junior folks were hired into the newer fleets-Sovereign and Excell. Any furlough will wrong size a segment or two, while right sizing the overall company, if that's what they decide. Reverse seniority is the only fair way.

FWIW, another pilot flew the new boss recently, and was told pilots were not the problem. I don't believe we will furlough any more today than I did 6 months ago. Too costly to recover the costs of all the training and retraining associated with all the different types we fly. Then again, I've been wrong before.

 

[RTRHD]

I hope your info is right there Perv that would be great news.

 

[gunfyter]

Better news would be booming jet sales....

 

[Airboss]

Better news would be booming jet sales....

Just talked to a sales rep the other day. All I can say on this board is that sales are increasing, and people leaving due to the economy are decreasing.

 

[Rubber Ducky]

Just talked to a sales rep the other day. All I can say on this board is that sales are increasing, and people leaving due to the economy are decreasing.

I have heard the same... and then some

Prospects available resources are stabilizing and they are seeing this as an opportune time to make a purchase.

I'm not saying that the recession is over... but it could be over tomorrow.

 

[wolfpackpilot]

I'm not saying that the recession is over... but it could be over tomorrow.

And Iran is going to open a chain of Prissy Polly BBQ Pork stands in Tehran.


Look, I'm not trying to piss on the birthday cake... But when the 20 gazillion dollars we just spent has to get paid back and inflation takes over?

Yeah.. its going to be worse than it has the last 13 months. Whats really changed again? Nothing other than the Government printing money it cant backup.

 

[BeeDubya]

Everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that NJI lost 16% of it's Pilots and 18.3% of it's Flight Attendants through the voluntary early-out process vs. 5.7% and 4.2% at NJA.
This suggests to me that NJI is closer to being 'right-sized' than NJA so further involuntary reductions may have to impact NJA more than NJI.
What is the flaw in this thinking?

It would depend on how overstaffed NJI and NJA were. If NJI were more overstaffed than NJA, then even with a larger reduction (by percentage) NJA may be closer to being right-sized. You assume both were equally overstaffed (by percentage).

 

[doh]

I agree with this. I've said this before and I'll say it again; with pilots its about numbers not money. If you have x number of planes (demand), you need x number of pilots. Reducing pilot pay does nothing for the company.

I have to agree with both of you. On the airline side we negotiated pay cuts to "save jobs" (quote from management). The next day they laid off anyway, gave themselves bonuses for the savings from the paycuts, and laughed at us while giving us the one finger salute. X amount of demand equals X amount of pilots needed.

 

[doh]

Normal protocol for corporate downsizing. Get the managers to fire the workers then get the VPs to fire the managers. That way everyone's hands get dirty.

That sounds about right. The managers often know in advance that their positions are going away. They are offered a package if they stay until a certain date. This allows them to be there to cull the rest of the herd. My wife's last company did that.