Intelligent comments from Chautauqua CEO

[BlueCanoe]

Here's the simple truth about the "50 seat glut"

Historically, airlines decide that they need some sort of seat catagory A/C then they all race to buy as many as they can, as quick as they can. Then they own too many. Let's say there is a need for 500 50 seat aircraft nation wide. Now each and every airline wants to own the highest percent of the 50 seat market. They all order these aircraft, paying progessively more for each copy as the market demand for capacity is declining. Next thing you know, a 50-seater is a commodity, instead of a valuable asset. The exact same thing is happening with the 70-100 seat niche. In six years those that are new in the industry right now, will see the next cycle, because too many 50 seaters are parked. Then Colgan, commutair or whoever will get the 50 seaters will get them cheap. A new batch of 19-34 seat prop operators will crop up and compete with Mesa.

Captialism is a bitch.....

Good luck to all, I hope we all have enough work....

 

[Indy319FA]

The quotes from BB came from his weekly update to employees that is posted on the employee website and was intended for us, so that's why it sounds kind of preachy. While I don't agree with everything he said (particularly some of the stuff regarding the demise of ACA/Independence) he does have a point that this will create aritificial demand for RJs.

For the folks at Expressjet, I'm glad you're getting to keep the planes. But the comments of some that I have read sound just like the comments I heard around the crewroom at ACA when they announced we were going on our own. Everybody thought Tom and Kerry were geniuses until the time came to pull the CRJs out of the UAL network and the red ink started to pile up and the furloughs began. So unless XJT gets an agreement with somebody else for these aircraft, treat everything your management says with a healthy amount of skepticism, particularly if all they come up with is charters and flying point to point on your own. Remember they have to keep you flying the aircraft so they can continue to fulfill their contracts, so they will keep any bad news close to the vest until they have to make an announcement when furloughs are imminent. Good luck to you guys, and I'd love to see you prosper just to shove it down the throats of the critics.

 

[SkyBoy1981]

Can someone show me where XJT management has announced that they are going "on their own" or that they plan to operate a new airline using only 50 seat regional jets? I must have missed that memo.

I thought the title of this thread said that it had "intelligent comments"? Sounds like a bunch of nonsense to me, especially since most of it assumes things that have yet to be determined.

 

[Indy319FA]

Can someone show me where XJT management has announced that they are going "on their own" or that they plan to operate a new airline using only 50 seat regional jets? I must have missed that memo.

I thought the title of this thread said that it had "intelligent comments"? Sounds like a bunch of nonsense to me, especially since most of it assumes things that have yet to be determined

From a previous post in this thread:

FWIW, last week's XJET conference call cited the 4 new homes for the 69 jets;

1. Overseas opportunities
2. Charter Flying
3. Point-to-point flying under xjet colors
4. New opportunities with existing legacy carriers

 

[Capi_Cafre']

Can someone show me where XJT management has announced that they are going "on their own" or that they plan to operate a new airline using only 50 seat regional jets? I must have missed that memo.

I thought the title of this thread said that it had "intelligent comments"? Sounds like a bunch of nonsense to me, especially since most of it assumes things that have yet to be determined.

Blah blah blah must make concessions blah blah blah other pilots will steal your jobs blah blah blah...........

I'm not sure that rises to the level of "intelligent." Sounds more like someone trying to milk the last bit of equity out of the industry's downturn to me. Somehow I think that the main topic at the RAA convention next week is going to be "Fear and Loathing: Keeping Pilots at Each Other's Throats"

 

[Superpilot92]

There are alot of reasons why we are different than Indy. Our mgmt watched what happened with Indy and i am sure they have learned from it in many ways. Now i am pretty sure that our mgmt has no intentions on starting our own brand in the 121 environment using only the 145s. Now i believe they have mentioned starting a frax i believe with them but not 121. I am pretty optimistic what the future holds.

 

[SkyBoy1981]

From a previous post in this thread:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Mesa operate flights under its own colors as well? There is no comparison to Indy Air here folks. Any independent flying that XJT were to do on its own at this point would be on a much smaller scale than Indy, and it would certainly not be the only or even the primary source of revenue for the company. Please stop comparing apples to donkeys. Thank you.

 

[Superpilot92]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Mesa operate flights under its own colors as well? There is no comparison to Indy Air here folks. Any independent flying that XJT were to do on its own at this point would be on a much smaller scale than Indy, and it would certainly not be the only or even the primary source of revenue for the company. Please stop comparing apples to donkeys. Thank you.

Thats great I love it!!

 

[doh]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Mesa operate flights under its own colors as well? There is no comparison to Indy Air here folks. Any independent flying that XJT were to do on its own at this point would be on a much smaller scale than Indy, and it would certainly not be the only or even the primary source of revenue for the company. Please stop comparing apples to donkeys. Thank you.

Mesa operates under their own colors with some 1900's I believe. Those routes are covered under the essential air services act, gauranteeing them a profit to serve some small markets. They don't want to code share those because then they would have to split the proceeds.

 

[Indy319FA]

Mesa operates under their own colors with some 1900's I believe. Those routes are covered under the essential air services act, gauranteeing them a profit to serve some small markets. They don't want to code share those because then they would have to split the proceeds.

Exactly. Because most of those airports are in BFE, the big guys could care less about competing with them. If you decide to compete with legacy carriers in larger markets, they will come after you with a vengeance, just to kill you off before you get successful enough to pose a serious threat. Like I said, good luck to you guys, but if you're swallowing all these happy pills your management is feeding you, be careful one doesn't get stuck in your throat.......