Impending 'pilot shortage' rumor is false

[pilotyip]

Lets look at 1st yr pay

Hey guys I will bet he first to admit, we are not a legacy, or a major. We are in the on-demand business. You have to start someplace and pay your dues; ours is only one route. Lets talk bout first year pay, and rank a bunch airlines, FedEx 3996, DAL 3185, USAir 2952, USA Jet 2880, UPS 2430, AAL 2240, CAL 2160, NWA 2040, UAL 2015. (source Airline Central) No one operating airplane under 100K MGTOW on an air carrier certificate pays more than USA Jet. So it not bad to come and built your experience for your next job moves. Our pilots have gone on to FedEx, UPS, AAL, UAL, USAir, SWA, DAL, Net Jets, Jet Blue, AirTran, Spirit, and a lot of other places. But while you are waiting for your next job, you are making a decent wages, Our average pilot has been here almost 7 years, and bunch are not going anywhere because they are stuck in a money trap where they are making over 100K and can not afford to go to the above wages. So again I admit we are not a legacy or a major. But we are an Airline, and you have to start somewhere.

 

[pilotyip]

Andy; we are still getting quality new hires, last class ave 3000 TT, 1200 MEL, 1800 Turbin, 2 with 121 expereince, 1 with 135 and one Military, gotta love them helo drivers. However it is a lot harder to find them.

 

[Black Hawk]

Hey guys I will bet he first to admit, we are not a legacy, or a major. We are in the on-demand business. You have to start someplace and pay your dues; ours is only one route.

Good responses to some pretty condecending posts. Some of these guys are forgetting where they came from or were lucky enough to get great job right out of the blocks. I'll leave it at that.

 

[Lebowski]

Good responses to some pretty condecending posts. Some of these guys are forgetting where they came from or were lucky enough to get great job right out of the blocks. I'll leave it at that.

Ditto

 

[Lebowski]

104000 pilots in the FAA database that have the right certificates to work in a 121 airline (104512 as of 4/11/07).

92500 pilots in part 121 airlines currently working. That leaves 11500 ATP/first class and Commercial/ME/Instr/1st class for all the various part 135, FBO, corporate, misc flying.

Including furloughees there are 97000 pilots employed, but most of the furloughees have either found other flying jobs or have left the business.

The count of 104000 total pilots has not changed 0.5% up or down in the past three years.

These stats are very similar to 1998-1999.

I agree with Wiggums: it would be interesting to know how many of these pilots (either the 104,000 total or the 11,500 not employed by 121 carriers) are close to retirement--or are not competetive for other reasons (DUI, low time, work history, background, or whatever). I also wonder how many are foriegners (or U.S. citizens) with no plans ot work for U.S. carriers.

Anyway, good post that seems to get to the heart of the matter here. Where'd you get all the numbers from?

 

[BushwickBill]

The pilot shortage will be here when someone forks over the money to train me properly. Hasn't happened yet folks. I keep in mind there is some CFI that will gladly replace me at any time. I'm not a 121 pilot but I can't afford to work for the regionals anyway.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

There IS a pilot shortage. It's worst in Asia, and that's helping to drive the problem in the US. The Asian carriers used to take US guys who happened to apply. Now they're actively hiring in the US. I heard Cathay Pacific is shutting down 2 747 freighters because of a lack of pilots. European guys are leaving Emirates because they can work now in Europe, so those types of airlines are sucking up regional guys and FOs at the majors. I met an NWA CAPTAIN who was thinking of leaving for Asia.

NetJets Europe just unilaterally RAISED pay because they couldn't afford to lose guys at the rate they were leaving, and NetJets knew it would get worse in the future. The European JAA is studying age 70, and they are going to make it easier to get your commercial licenses, because of the shortages, which are getting worse there.

India needs 11,000 pilots in the next 3 years. Last year, they produced 150. Worldwide, Boeing says the airlines need 17,000 per year for the next 20 years. They are changing the training model, because, currently, the world can't keep up with the speed at which new pilots are being demanded.

NWA has been cancelling a number of flights because they're short. They have, basically, recalled all of their pilots, and when they start hiring, they will need pilots bad. UAL has already recalled all their pilots-it looks like they're ahead of NWA in the hiring process. USAir is getting close, with AA lagging, but not far behind. DAL is not getting as many mil guys as they were hoping for, so they're actually hiring ARMY guys and a bunch of civilians, which they haven't done in the past. We just saw SWA dropped their mins, and it wasn't because they are overloaded with applicants.

When you do the math and think of "10,000" applications on file, and the majors hire 1000, that leaves 900. WRONG! Many of the top experienced guys have their apps on file at a number of places. If UPS hires 1 guy, that may pull 5-10 apps out of the system, so if you hire the top 1000 guys, that may lower the application pool to 5000 at all of the majors.

I understand how highly experienced guys, especially if they're not looking to leave where they are, or they're just looking at UPS/FedEx, for example, might not understand the hiring shortage. If you look at flight schools, regionals, and Asia, you will understand.

New student starts in the US are down 50% over the last 5 years or less. A 50+ year old flight school near MSP shut down for lack of students. Several airlines are down to Comm-MEL and Inst-Airplane (no hourly mins) as minimums.

I was hired at USA Jet 5 years ago, with 2000 TT and 750 MEJet. I was by far the lowest time guy in my class. We just hired one guy with 280 TT, and about 100 MEL. In 2002 we almost didn't hire without a jet type rating. Now they some have no turbine time of any kind, even counting helo time.

The hiring tsunami is upon us, but just starting to build.

Hold out for more PAY!!!

cliff
GRB

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

At least one regional started plans 6 months ago to setup ab-initio training. A number of US airlines will be doing ab-initio, if things continue on this trend. So, if you know someone who wants to fly but has no money, they may be in luck soon.

cliff
GRB

PS-Forgot: The contract companies that gather resumes from highly experienced pilots and fill jobs all over the world are experiencing shortages already-they have less pilots available, all of a sudden, and many of the pilots (you go!!!) are demanding more money, so jobs are going unfilled.

 

[Lear70]

I heard Cathay Pacific is shutting down 2 747 freighters because of a lack of pilots.

Smoke crack lately?



Seriously, I wouldn't trust that rumor until it was verified...

India needs 11,000 pilots in the next 3 years. Last year, they produced 150. Worldwide, Boeing says the airlines need 17,000 per year for the next 20 years. They are changing the training model, because, currently, the world can't keep up with the speed at which new pilots are being demanded.

Again, you're talking supply and demand for a job that MOST U.S. pilots WITH FAMILIES consider sub-par.

When those international carriers start paying 6 figures to start and cap out over $250,000 with no "renewable contracts" (making them true CAREER stops) and give 16+ days off (6 days on, 8 days off so you can get back stateside or to Europe if you want), then they might not have such a tough time recruiting pilots.

NWA has been cancelling a number of flights because they're short. They have, basically, recalled all of their pilots, and when they start hiring, they will need pilots bad.

Not exactly true. They haven't forced the recall of all those who bypassed yet. They have quite a few people left to get through before they street hire.

DAL is not getting as many mil guys as they were hoping for, so they're actually hiring ARMY guys and a bunch of civilians, which they haven't done in the past. We just saw SWA dropped their mins, and it wasn't because they are overloaded with applicants.

SWA's new reduction of PIC time doesn't count in this equation, as they turn down 85% of the applicants thereby artificially reducing their own pool of qualified pilots.

As far as DAL goes, they last reported they received over 15,000 qualified applications in the first 2 weeks. I don't think they're hurting for people.

When you do the math and think of "10,000" applications on file, and the majors hire 1000, that leaves 900. WRONG! Many of the top experienced guys have their apps on file at a number of places. If UPS hires 1 guy, that may pull 5-10 apps out of the system, so if you hire the top 1000 guys, that may lower the application pool to 5000 at all of the majors.

That math is fairly twisted. We're talking about total pilots "in" versus total pilots "out". How many pilots OVERALL will all the MAJORS hire this year? How many people will reach the 1,000 PIC turbine required to apply at most of these jobs this year?

THAT'S the math that's important. The total number of qualified applications versus how many get hired TOTAL at the majors.

I understand how highly experienced guys, especially if they're not looking to leave where they are, or they're just looking at UPS/FedEx, for example, might not understand the hiring shortage. If you look at flight schools, regionals, and Asia, you will understand.

Again, you're comparing apples to oranges and trying to force a "pilot shortage" claim on 3 entirely different segments of the job market.

The regionals ALWAYS have shortages when the majors hire.

The majors have never run out of qualified applicants in the last 3 decades.

It's really quite simple.

New student starts in the US are down 50% over the last 5 years or less. A 50+ year old flight school near MSP shut down for lack of students. Several airlines are down to Comm-MEL and Inst-Airplane (no hourly mins) as minimums.

Oh, there's no doubt the regionals are going to have a tough time of it, as they're the ONLY people taking these guys with wet-ink CMEL certs.

In TIME, that will trickle up to the majors, but it's not likely to happen until the end of the NEXT hiring wave in 2015.

I was hired at USA Jet 5 years ago, with 2000 TT and 750 MEJet. I was by far the lowest time guy in my class. We just hired one guy with 280 TT, and about 100 MEL. In 2002 we almost didn't hire without a jet type rating. Now they some have no turbine time of any kind, even counting helo time.

Again, you're comparing a sub-par regional-equivalent job to the major airline marketplace.

It's just not an appropriate comparison to judge market availability of qualified pilots for the major airlines.

The hiring tsunami is upon us, but just starting to build.

Tsunami?

Hold out for more PAY!!!

cliff
GRB

No doubt. Definitely agree with that last part.

 

[Lear70]

PS-Forgot: The contract companies that gather resumes from highly experienced pilots and fill jobs all over the world are experiencing shortages already-they have less pilots available, all of a sudden, and many of the pilots (you go!!!) are demanding more money, so jobs are going unfilled.

We're seeing that in the U.S. Corporate and Charter sector as well (fractionals excluded).

Lots of multiple job posts on the climbto350.com and planejobs.com websites that are repeats every couple of weeks because they can't get an experienced Lear, CL, or G driver to accept $55,000 a year for a job in D.C., New York, Boston, Denver, L.A., etc, etc.

Between labor costs, fuel, insurance, and user fees (proposed), the private sector is going to be suffering a world of hurt over the next 2-3 years.

 

[CJCCapt]

I agree with Wiggums: it would be interesting to know how many of these pilots (either the 104,000 total or the 11,500 not employed by 121 carriers) are close to retirement--or are not competitive for other reasons (DUI, low time, work history, background, or whatever). I also wonder how many are foreigners (or U.S. citizens) with no plans for work for U.S. carriers.

Anyway, good post that seems to get to the heart of the matter here. Where'd you get all the numbers from?

I have spent some time today trying to get age (birthdate) with the pilot data out of the FAA's public databases. No luck, yet. I too would like to know how many are retiring. I can tell you at CAL the number is (assuming age 60) 1100 in five years and about 2100 in ten. But CAL is not representative of all airlines. I'll look closer at AIR Inc's numbers as a source and see if I can come up with a better number than a WAG.

The total number is from the FAA database. It is only US citizens. I have been tracking it for two years. This time a year ago the total was 104334 (4/27/06). The total employed number is a comparison of current info from Air Inc and APC. I looked at all part 121 US airlines listed on APC, plus the fractionals. There are 63400 at majors (major pax and major cargo), 22000 at regionals, 4200 at fractionals, 2300 at national airlines, and the rest at charter, other cargo, and regional cargo.

The most interesting thing in the FAA database is the number of CFI's with active certificates. It has dropped 27% this year vs last year after a drop of 15% in 2006. The trend is obvious.

It seems to me looking at the numbers we're getting pretty close to full practical employment, a little better than 9 out of 10. This is supported by the sprinkling of news stories we're beginning to see related to cancelled flights do to lack of pilots. Also regional airline recruiter's at AIR Inc, OBAP, and other pilot recruiting events are beginning to resemble the Maytag Repair Man (just spoke to the Colgan recruiter today at OBAP - he's talked to two pilots in two days). Are there pilots out there that want to improve their life and are looking to move on to a better pilot position? Sure. And that's happening. But there is a major difference in this hiring boom vs the previous good times (for example, late 1990's). That's the advent of the regional jet vs turboprops of the early and mid 90's. Of the 22000 regional airline pilots, 11000 or so must be captains. And those captains after several years seniority are enjoying almost or better than six figure pay. They are flying a jet domestically (with a little Mexico and Canada) with good schedules. It will be interesting to see how many are really willing to move to the bottom of a seniority list at a major. I bet many will stay put. I will also bet that major airlines will begin to hire more and more pilots without PIC time, before they raise salaries (outside of new contracts). Regional FO's will make up a much larger percentage of new hires as time passes.

I have no numbers on the amount of available military pilots or their potential effect on the pool of pilots. That's one thing I am missing.

 

[Lebowski]

CJC: I'm impressed. You're about the only person on this thread who really stepped up to the plate with some research and sound numbers. I think you also make some excellent, well-reasoned points.

The active CFI trend is definitely interesting. When you get good facts, it prompts so many interesting questions. Like, even with the number of active CFIs dropping, there are bound to be many like me who are now at a 121 carrier that keep their CFI "active" by renewing every two years, but have no real intent to flight instruct again. So it's possible that the number of truly available "active" instructors is dropping even faster than indicated.

Anyhoo, thanks, bro!

Lebowski

 

[Andy]

I have no numbers on the amount of available military pilots or their potential effect on the pool of pilots. That's one thing I am missing.

The Air Force has been offering active duty pilots six figures to leave active duty before their initial committment is over. That's not a shortage; that's a surplus.

People are confusing the end of a huge pilot surplus with a shortage. There is no shortage. Pilot salaries are at historic lows; there is no way that anyone can proclaim a shortage of pilots when the current wages and benefits are at historic lows.
Why aren't many military pilots leaving the military to fly for the airlines? Pay and benefits.

 

[Andy]

Andy; we are still getting quality new hires, last class ave 3000 TT, 1200 MEL, 1800 Turbin, 2 with 121 expereince, 1 with 135 and one Military, gotta love them helo drivers. However it is a lot harder to find them.

You've just made the case for there being no pilot shortage. When you start hiring pilots on a regular basis with 250 hours in spite of increasing pay and benefits, then I'll buy that there's a shortage.
Ex-AMR CEO Crandall was supposedly asked about pilot shortages. The response attributed to him is that there never has been and there never will be a pilot shortage. It's just a question of changing the minimums.

I can remember sitting on the jumpseat of a Mesaba Saab back in '99. The FO had less than 500 hrs; the Capt said that this was typical and he spent a lot of his time instructing the new FOs.

Yip, you've been very honorable in your replies. But I vehemently disagree with your point of view on any pilot shortages.

 

[Andy]

UAL has already recalled all their pilots

UAL still has another 700 or so to go out of 2172.

 

[Lear70]

But there is a major difference in this hiring boom vs the previous good times (for example, late 1990's). That's the advent of the regional jet vs turboprops of the early and mid 90's. Of the 22000 regional airline pilots, 11000 or so must be captains. And those captains after several years seniority are enjoying almost or better than six figure pay. They are flying a jet domestically (with a little Mexico and Canada) with good schedules.

I was following your logic very well until this gem... Again, twice in one day,,,

Smoke crack lately?

Which regionals, exactly, after "several years of seniority" (4-6), are earning 6 figures?

CMR? Pre-bankruptcy rates, MAYBE...?

6th year CA rates (largest equipment) by carrier crediting approx 85 hours per month (pay does not include per diem):

AirWhiskey $67 / hr = $68,340
Colgan $62 / hr = $63,240
Mesaba $64 / hr = $65,280
Piedmont $55 / hr = $56,100
PCL $64 / hr = $65,280
PSA $68 / hr = $69,360
Trans States $64 / hr = $65,280
Eagle $73 / hr = $74,460
ASA $70 / hr = 61,200
CMR $68 / hr = $69,360
Express Jet $70 / hr = 61,200
Mesa $69 / hr = $70,380
Skywest $69 / hr = $70,380

Not a single one of those caps $75,000 a year. I'm going to make that after 2 years here at AAI.

2 years later, I'll be a CA making almost double that.

Add to that a MUCH better quality of life than any regional I've ever heard about, and I can't imagine any reason for someone with at least 10 years or more left in their career NOT to make the jump from a regional.

It will be interesting to see how many are really willing to move to the bottom of a seniority list at a major. I bet many will stay put.

I bet they won't. How can we set up a gauge for it over the next 5 years and what is the wager? :beer:

I will also bet that major airlines will begin to hire more and more pilots without PIC time, before they raise salaries (outside of new contracts). Regional FO's will make up a much larger percentage of new hires as time passes.

No doubt. Money over everything, I agree 100%

I have no numbers on the amount of available military pilots or their potential effect on the pool of pilots. That's one thing I am missing.

That IS the big missing factor in this.

Everything else you wrote makes pretty good sense. Ditto the excellent analytical skills and fact finding!

 

[big_al]

the pilot shortage, just like in many other industries, is only a shortage of people willing to work for as little as possible.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

I am on 4 year captain pay at ExpressJet and I will take home $85000. I am starting a two and a half week vacation next week (of which I have two) and never work more than 14 days per month. That is not counting our bonus, 401k match, work the red flag stuff, and those who really go out of their way to work more than 90 hours per month (I try to stay around 85). It can be done here at ExpressJet. Lots of people have decided to stay and the top 1/4 of our seniority list is pretty stagnant. I am not saying that this is what I will choose to do but I think about it. It would take me a long time to catch up and almost any major/national. Even at Airtran it would only work if the growth continues. If i get stuck in the right seat for a while because of a merger or more delayed aircraft then QOL and pay wise might be a wash.

 

[Non Union]

I am on 4 year captain pay at ExpressJet and I will take home $85000. I am starting a two and a half week vacation next week (of which I have two) and never work more than 14 days per month. That is not counting our bonus, 401k match, work the red flag stuff, and those who really go out of their way to work more than 90 hours per month (I try to stay around 85). It can be done here at ExpressJet. Lots of people have decided to stay and the top 1/4 of our seniority list is pretty stagnant. I am not saying that this is what I will choose to do but I think about it. It would take me a long time to catch up and almost any major/national. Even at Airtran it would only work if the growth continues. If i get stuck in the right seat for a while because of a merger or more delayed aircraft then QOL and pay wise might be a wash.

Too bad you're losing your butts on the branded flying. I hear load factors are low.

Hopefully we'll get you back flying some 70 or 90 seaters for CAL down the road. Unfortunately, I think that is your only shot at a long career with ExpressJet.

 

[Lear70]

I am on 4 year captain pay at ExpressJet and I will take home $85000. I am starting a two and a half week vacation next week (of which I have two) and never work more than 14 days per month. That is not counting our bonus, 401k match, work the red flag stuff, and those who really go out of their way to work more than 90 hours per month (I try to stay around 85).

I'd really like to know how you're going to do that without including per diem, 401k match, or bonus, or doing 150% red flag stuff (I'm not sure but I think 150% is what it pays), or flying through your vacation.

4th year CA pay there is $66 an hour.

$85,000/66 is 1,288 hours of credit.

That's crediting over 107 hours a month, EVERY month.

Not calling you a liar, but I really don't see it happening without counting some or all of the above you said you weren't counting.

Even at Airtran it would only work if the growth continues. If i get stuck in the right seat for a while because of a merger or more delayed aircraft then QOL and pay wise might be a wash.

This is true.

I'm just BARELY going to upgrade and, if deliveries don't continue, will be on reserve for a LONG time.

People hired after me will NOT upgrade without more aircraft ordered, a mass exodus of senior pilots, or some type of acquisition/merger where our guys get really senior really fast over some other group (not cool, but it's happened at other carriers).