Impending 'pilot shortage' rumor is false

[LJDRVR]

With the coming user fees and sadly the death of GA in the States, plan on a huge pilot shrtage at the entry level. It will take several years for this to maybe translate to the majors, but without GA, things are going to very different in a few years. Regionals, as somebody already said, are feeling the pain now.

Many of these 500 hour guys and gals are not going to be upgradable in two years.

 

[Falconjet]

According to about 5 other threads, SWA just lowered our turbine PIC mins to 1000 again (which they probably should have been the whole time) from 1300. I doubt the people department did that because they have too many applications on file.

Most things go in cycles. It is true that every RJ captain that leaves for the majors opens up more PIC time for guys behind him, but, it is also true that in a good pilot market it is possible for the pool of 'highly qualified' pilots to run low. It is different than a pilot shortage, there will still be plenty of pilots out there, just maybe not with as much 'seasoning' as many employers would like to see.

No, they're having to do that because they interview EVERYBODY who meets their mins (a great policy by the way) and then end up only hiring about 15% of those they interview. Then they interview a certain percentage multiple times. They might be the one quality company who finds themselves needing more qualified applicants because they shoot so many down on the first cut.

I don't see a pilot shortage looming, particularly with the possibility of the age 60 rule changing.

FJ

 

[pilotyip]

believe me I do the recruiting at my airline, there is a pilot shortage out there.

 

[HA25]

believe me I do the recruiting at my airline, there is a pilot shortage out there.

Well it all depends on what airlines you look at.. sure there is a shortage of experienced pilots applying to bottom feeder operations, 135's, and other low quality jobs, but I don't think SWA, UPS, Fedex, or most of the Legacy carriers are having a hard time getting high quality applications that far exceed their demand.

In the end, companies need to learn a simple rule... "if you wana play, you have to pay"

You don't attract high caliber pilots applicants to a job when you pay like crap, and expect your pilots to be married to their jobs via a pager or some other bs.

 

[hammer2]

believe me I do the recruiting at my airline, there is a pilot shortage out there.

Yip it's because your airline sucks!

 

[firstthird]

No, they're having to do that because they interview EVERYBODY who meets their mins (a great policy by the way) and then end up only hiring about 15% of those they interview. Then they interview a certain percentage multiple times. They might be the one quality company who finds themselves needing more qualified applicants because they shoot so many down on the first cut.
FJ

Actually, SWA stopped giving interviews to everyone that met the minimums 2 or 3 years ago when they went to a 'quality screen.' Supposedly they raised the PIC mins to more accurately reflect those that were competitive (i.e. save people from spending money on a type who were not likely to get an interview was my take, admittedly from the outside of the process)

I agree that we do seem to hire a pretty low percentage and have been quite frustrated about it at times (when you're writing letters for good guys and they get turned down). sometimes I think our people department never recalibrated their process from the mid-nineties when we were a second tier airline to most and the current situation.

That being said, they seem to do a good job so far be it from me to think I know better. I fly the plane.

 

[freightdogfred]

Yip it's because your airline sucks!

Not to bash Yip, but calling it an Airline is a bit of a stretch. It's more like a Certificate, a 121 Supplemental to be exact.

 

[HA25]

Yip it's because your airline sucks!

I was trying to politically tap dance around that fact.. but yes.

 

[MrSky]

Ever since the Days of Orville and Wilbur Wright, there has Always been two guys wanting to fly one airplane... No pilot shortage soon!

Qualified Pilots...Now thats another story all together... Watch MESA and the like, start hiring 250/hr wonders.

 

[highsky]

UPS now requires transoceanic experience to even knock on the door. They wouldn't be doing that if they were desperate.

 

[Phaedrus]

Watch MESA and the like, start hiring 250/hr wonders

Not unprecedented...even in the legacy world.

 

[pilotyip]

USA Jet is the finest DA-20 operator in the business. We feel our training program is good enought to train anyone who has basic flying skills. USA Jet does all of its training under Part 121 N & O; the DA-20 has 5 weeks of full time ground school prior to starting sim training, which runs one week and 25 hours for F/O's. All DA-20 F/O's receive 25 hours of supervised IOE prior to being released to line operations, we observe 100 min time in seat for pairing restrictions and in the past have turned down trips because of only low time pairs available. We have not hired a Captain off the street since 1998. Our safety record speaks for it self and is the standard for the industry. No training is done in airplanes on ride along legs. We have had pilots go to major airlines and tell us, except for fancy bells and whistles, the USA Jet training was as good as they got at their major. No USA Jet pilot has failed training at his next job. At an unnamed national passenger operator, 50% of the new hire pilots washed out of DC-9 training, USA Jet pilots had a 100% pass rate based upon their USA Jet Training. Some pilots hired by a large player in the business waived all testing and sim evals for USA Jet pilots, because of the known quality of their USA Jet Training. While in full time ground school you are paid $300/wk. We have program on track for 6 figures pay in 6 years for all Captains. $34 K per year to start, 10 hard days off every 28 day bid period. While in a duty status, you have to live in the immediate YIP area. Benefits are good with a Blue Cross/Blue Shield plan you would be eligible for after 90 days. Pay goes up for F/O’s $2/hr in the 3rd year. Captain could be as early as a year, depends upon turnover and growth. Company covers all hotel costs on the road and gives the pilots $1.58 per hour pre-diem while away from YIP to cover meals. Time away from home is the luck of the draw, one guy’s fly’s 80 hours and is gone from home 6 days, and the next guy flies 45 hours and is gone 12 days. Some guys spend one night a month in a hotel way from home, but fly many night time round trips. It is a non-sked, hence no schedule.

 

[CJCCapt]

104000 pilots in the FAA database that have the right certificates to work in a 121 airline (104512 as of 4/11/07).

92500 pilots in part 121 airlines currently working. That leaves 11500 ATP/first class and Commercial/ME/Instr/1st class for all the various part 135, FBO, corporate, misc flying.

Including furloughees there are 97000 pilots employed, but most of the furloughees have either found other flying jobs or have left the business.

The count of 104000 total pilots has not changed 0.5% up or down in the past three years.

These stats are very similar to 1998-1999.

 

[AlbieF15]

The UPS requirement will clean out a lot of quality dudes from supplemental and second tier cargo operations (Polar, Atlas, Gemini, etc). When I say "second tier", I mean in wages, benefits, and size...not quality of the dudes there.

Many regionals (Pinnacle for one) is tight on captains. They have bailed to other pastures (FDX, Airtran, Continental, and SWA) and replacing them has been slow. Guys behind them don't meet ATP mins or cannot get through the upgrade (yet).

The pressure on GA IS reducing the number of students and the general pilot base.

All this adds to up there is SOME pressure now to capture the best candidates. Guys with 1500 PIC 121 time, clean records, 4 year degrees, and (as a bonus) some LCA experience or training shop experience are pretty marketable right now. Not saying they'll get hired--but they are getting called.

At some of the "tweener" places--like Jetblue, Frontier, and Airtran--there is some real attrition taking place. Also happening at CAL. So--while we all see some good folks get passed here and there--it does seem like the "best" candidates are getting a lot of attention.

One last anecdotal point--MANY of the folks I've helped that have been hired at SWA or JB get mutliple interviews. The airlines are fighting over the same guys in a lot of cases. Even if there are plenty of pilots to go around, the guys and gals with the "magic" to get called by one carrier often seem to get called by more than one about the same time. And no--this isn't just military guys. I've had guys with JB/SWA, JB/UPS, SWA/UPS, and FDX/SWA options in the last two months. I've also had a few folks call me after joining airline X to say Airline Y called and wants to give them a shot too.

Its a tough game--but the skies HAVE lightened a bit the last 12 months as the 9/11 storm and bk fallouts have gradually faded some.

 

[Lear70]

Yip, no offense, but I've been making more than your F/O's with better quality of life since 1997. That was a decade ago, by the way.

You are having a hard time finding qualified guys because, quite frankly, the pay and QOL (days off, living by your pager) suck. You're basically on the same tier as a regional - the pay is better but the QOL is comparably worse. Most regionals average 14 HARD days off with the ability to live wherever you want and know your schedule in advance. You'd have to double your pay to get the pile of resumes you'd like to see.

Hint: everyone else is basically saying the same thing. I enjoy debating with you and you seem like a cool guy, but we just wouldn't want to work there.

You're also debating two ends of the spectrum. The regionals (and your company) always have a hard time when hiring picks up at the majors. The majors never have a difficult time. Just the way life is and will continue to be.

By the way, SWA has the strangest hiring practices of any airline I have ever seen in my life. I believe the hiring secrets are more closely guarded than the secret files on the Kennedy assassination.

Last time I talked to LL she said she still has about 7,000 applications on file, 2,000 of which have the type. That was just after Christmas. For 700 positions this year. With a 15% hiring ratio to interview, that means they'd have to interview NEARLY ALL of them just to get their minimum class seats filled.

They're the only airline like that on the face of the planet. Everyone else has enough applications to fill the classes for the foreseeable future.

 

[Wiggums]

104000 pilots in the FAA database that have the right certificates to work in a 121 airline (104512 as of 4/11/07).

It would be interesting to know how many of those pilots are turning 60 in the next 5-10 years.

 

[two(2)%]

By the way, SWA has the strangest hiring practices of any airline I have ever seen in my life. I believe the hiring secrets are more closely guarded than the secret files on the Kennedy assassination.
They're the only airline like that on the face of the planet. Everyone else has enough applications to fill the classes for the foreseeable future.

No offense Lear, but did it ever occur to you that maybe you didn't get hired at SWA because you rub folks the wrong way? Yip is simply citing facts regarding his operation and you respond by putting him in pecking order. I'll go along with his original projection that regional airline crews are in short supply and this will in turn eventually trickle up to legacy ranks. After all, Yip did correctly identify this situation when everyone else thought it would be decades before some appeciable hiring occurred.

 

[Lear70]

No offense Lear, but did it ever occur to you that maybe you didn't get hired at SWA because you rub folks the wrong way?

Maybe. Maybe not. Not going to 2nd guess it, either, don't have the time or the energy for it, their loss.

Yip is simply citing facts regarding his operation and you respond by putting him in pecking order.

I wasn't putting him anywhere and I wasn't the first to suggest that it might be his airline's pay and bennies that are giving him a tough time with applicants, yet you chose to slam ME and not everyone else?

Did I hit a nerve somewhere?

p.s. Yip and I go way back in our debates; we understand each other and agree to disagree. He's not the only one by the way that predicted the current surge in hiring...

I'll go along with his original projection that regional airline crews are in short supply and this will in turn eventually trickle up to legacy ranks.

You have your opinion, I have mine.

When they start canceling major airline flights in this decade because they have no qualified APPLICATIONS on file, give me a call, I'll buy the beers... and the Ruth Chris.

 

[ferlo]

believe me I do the recruiting at my airline, there is a pilot shortage out there.

Are you saying flight instructors with a rectal temp higher than 84 degrees are no longer out there? I find that hard to believe. With what you're paying, why would you expect anything else?

 

[Andy]

Yip it's because your airline sucks!

Yip has become accustomed to the quality of applicants in the post-911 world. That is finally unwinding.
There are pilots at just about every legacy who were hired with zero flight time. And needless to say, their starting pay was much better than what Yip's outfit is offering.

The only reason why there's a 'pilot shortage' is that employers aren't willing to pay for the talent. Time for the employers to suck it up, increase wages, and pass those costs on to the customer.

$300/wk? Isn't that less than McDonalds wages? It's certainly less than construction laborer wages. First year pay of $34k/yr is $560/wk, around construction laborer wages. And construction laborers don't have to live within 15 min of the airport with a beeper attached to them.