AlbieF15
F15 Ret/FDX/InterviewPrep
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2001
- Posts
- 1,764
Aviators,
Just got done reading the AA thread, and it is getting hot in there. "Angry little troll", "idiot", etc. are being tossed around a bit too much as guys go back and forth--especially on the regional/mainline battle.
I'll offer 2 cents on what I see happening in my favorite Major down south...and the trend started well before 9/11. Then I'll offer a sad prediction of what I see happening next...
The issue of Major verses Regional has gotten a lot of press, so I won't beat it do death here. I will say that seeing an mainline MD-88 on the FLA panhandle is rare, and that the ATRs and RJs are the dominent airframe. We know that a mainline MD88 guy has gets paid more than those ATR/RJs, but I think there are issues that airline mgt is missing in their quest to cut costs, especially if your regional company's CSAs and flight management does not provide the level of service that customers expect for their money.
The interesting phenomenon that I see in ATL frequently, and saw again at DFW last night, is that when flights to several cities within 50-80 miles of each other are scheduled in the same bank, and there are a lot of empty seats on any one of the flight, one of the flights "breaks". Now--before anyone goes off on me making unbiased accusations, let me assure you the PERCEPTION of the paying customers in the lounge area is that this is a deliberate action. I have seen this happen so many times that is does give some credence to their suspicions. Regardless of the validity of the claim--many folks are upset and very suspicious of my favorite major's feeder/code share partner.
Frequently when this happens, the paying pax has 2-3 options.
*Accept going to original destination, often 12-24 hours later (saw this at DFW last night).
*Fly to nearby city (if seats available) and get bussed/taxied/shuttled to destination (painful at times)
*Say "h@ll with it" and drive (seen this several times in ATL
Common thread to all options--they are BAD and irritate the daylights out of paying pax. Angst, frustration, and a committment to NEVER fly said company again if at all possible develops.
Guys--we go back and forth here on the board about what a pilot is "worth" in wages, but if your company continues to alienate passengers, here is what will happen next.
First--your high dollar flyers, tired of security hassles, poor customer service, cancelled flights, etc. will gravitate towards fractionals, company planes, and charters when able. Although dollar for dollar airlines are cheaper, the company can justify its use of other options for both security and time management reasons. It can also consider such travel an incentive or perk for its frequent travelers, who probably consider avoiding airlines as a very attractive company benefit.
Next--your "backpack" and coach travelers just suffer. However--when competition shows up that offers good customer service, you can no longer win back your customers by "price matching" the new competition. JetBlue fares to MCO from JFK were MORE than Delta Express--but JB was full and making money while DE was bleeding with less than 3/4 full jets. Either company could have made money with good load factors--why was JBs so much higher? CUSTOMER SERVICE! You cannot continually p!ss in the coffee cup of even your "cheap seat" customers, and expect them not to notice. When given the alternative, they are GONE!
Don't believe it? In 2000 or 2001, the City of Pensacola gave Air Tran a million plus bonus or guarantee of some type to get them to move service from Ft Walton Beach (VPS) to Pensacola (PNS) in an effort to improve business travel to the area. When cities PAY you to start up there, you know the existing companies have generated some bad blood!
So...my 2002 prediction. My old favorite is going to continue to lose market share to Air Tran, JetBlue, and SWA (and Frontier if they compete in their neighborhood). And the issue is not just cost--it is attitude! While more and more flying goes to the regional connections, the poor customer service continues to alienate a larger and larger group. So when your city finally does get SWA, Air Tran, or JetBlue service, they will lose customers they can never get back. The brand loyalty they had in the 80s is dead--Generation X doesn't even know that (Southern Major) used to be the "customer service" airline...they look at them as the establishment. The upstarts that provide a smile, an honest answer, and actually seem to attempt to fly their timetables will develop the loyalty in the coming decade. Again--the 20-50 dollars difference in seat price may be enticing, but I know many customers in my area would pay $100 more to avoid headaches with the local regional.
So..the prediction? By 2008 (Southern Major)will no longer provide service to 30% of the cities it currently serves. It an attempt to cut costs, it will curtail flights in areas where it cannot maintain a yield justifying continued flights. Wages will be frozen, and in real terms go down at the current inflation rate. No significant mainline hiring will take place for 6 or more years. However, point to point expansion by Air Tran, Southwest, and JetBlue (in Florida) will fill the void and provide a higher level of customer options than are currently available.
Anyone who knows my background knows I hope I am wrong--but I don't see a lot of "light" for my old favorite at the moment.
Thoughts or rebuttals?
Just got done reading the AA thread, and it is getting hot in there. "Angry little troll", "idiot", etc. are being tossed around a bit too much as guys go back and forth--especially on the regional/mainline battle.
I'll offer 2 cents on what I see happening in my favorite Major down south...and the trend started well before 9/11. Then I'll offer a sad prediction of what I see happening next...
The issue of Major verses Regional has gotten a lot of press, so I won't beat it do death here. I will say that seeing an mainline MD-88 on the FLA panhandle is rare, and that the ATRs and RJs are the dominent airframe. We know that a mainline MD88 guy has gets paid more than those ATR/RJs, but I think there are issues that airline mgt is missing in their quest to cut costs, especially if your regional company's CSAs and flight management does not provide the level of service that customers expect for their money.
The interesting phenomenon that I see in ATL frequently, and saw again at DFW last night, is that when flights to several cities within 50-80 miles of each other are scheduled in the same bank, and there are a lot of empty seats on any one of the flight, one of the flights "breaks". Now--before anyone goes off on me making unbiased accusations, let me assure you the PERCEPTION of the paying customers in the lounge area is that this is a deliberate action. I have seen this happen so many times that is does give some credence to their suspicions. Regardless of the validity of the claim--many folks are upset and very suspicious of my favorite major's feeder/code share partner.
Frequently when this happens, the paying pax has 2-3 options.
*Accept going to original destination, often 12-24 hours later (saw this at DFW last night).
*Fly to nearby city (if seats available) and get bussed/taxied/shuttled to destination (painful at times)
*Say "h@ll with it" and drive (seen this several times in ATL
Common thread to all options--they are BAD and irritate the daylights out of paying pax. Angst, frustration, and a committment to NEVER fly said company again if at all possible develops.
Guys--we go back and forth here on the board about what a pilot is "worth" in wages, but if your company continues to alienate passengers, here is what will happen next.
First--your high dollar flyers, tired of security hassles, poor customer service, cancelled flights, etc. will gravitate towards fractionals, company planes, and charters when able. Although dollar for dollar airlines are cheaper, the company can justify its use of other options for both security and time management reasons. It can also consider such travel an incentive or perk for its frequent travelers, who probably consider avoiding airlines as a very attractive company benefit.
Next--your "backpack" and coach travelers just suffer. However--when competition shows up that offers good customer service, you can no longer win back your customers by "price matching" the new competition. JetBlue fares to MCO from JFK were MORE than Delta Express--but JB was full and making money while DE was bleeding with less than 3/4 full jets. Either company could have made money with good load factors--why was JBs so much higher? CUSTOMER SERVICE! You cannot continually p!ss in the coffee cup of even your "cheap seat" customers, and expect them not to notice. When given the alternative, they are GONE!
Don't believe it? In 2000 or 2001, the City of Pensacola gave Air Tran a million plus bonus or guarantee of some type to get them to move service from Ft Walton Beach (VPS) to Pensacola (PNS) in an effort to improve business travel to the area. When cities PAY you to start up there, you know the existing companies have generated some bad blood!
So...my 2002 prediction. My old favorite is going to continue to lose market share to Air Tran, JetBlue, and SWA (and Frontier if they compete in their neighborhood). And the issue is not just cost--it is attitude! While more and more flying goes to the regional connections, the poor customer service continues to alienate a larger and larger group. So when your city finally does get SWA, Air Tran, or JetBlue service, they will lose customers they can never get back. The brand loyalty they had in the 80s is dead--Generation X doesn't even know that (Southern Major) used to be the "customer service" airline...they look at them as the establishment. The upstarts that provide a smile, an honest answer, and actually seem to attempt to fly their timetables will develop the loyalty in the coming decade. Again--the 20-50 dollars difference in seat price may be enticing, but I know many customers in my area would pay $100 more to avoid headaches with the local regional.
So..the prediction? By 2008 (Southern Major)will no longer provide service to 30% of the cities it currently serves. It an attempt to cut costs, it will curtail flights in areas where it cannot maintain a yield justifying continued flights. Wages will be frozen, and in real terms go down at the current inflation rate. No significant mainline hiring will take place for 6 or more years. However, point to point expansion by Air Tran, Southwest, and JetBlue (in Florida) will fill the void and provide a higher level of customer options than are currently available.
Anyone who knows my background knows I hope I am wrong--but I don't see a lot of "light" for my old favorite at the moment.
Thoughts or rebuttals?
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