Hawaiian

[HA25]

I agree with both of my HAL counterparts in principal, especially HAL's very true comment, but I'm just repeating what our own CEO has stated is the ultimate deciding factor.

 

[General Lee]

Actually, I don't think that is as true today as it was in the 'go-go' era before 2008. Yes, return on investment is an important goal, but it can't be the be-all end-all for corporate strategy. As too many companies have discovered, short term gain this quarter, and mean the destruction of the company a year or two down the road. Without strategic planning (which often means some big up-front expenses) the company won't last.

Shareholders are important, but so are employees, the local community, and more. That's how successful companies have survived for decades.

HAL

But Hal, when you have a niche, you become dangerous. If your market cap is too expensive, like AK, then a purchase might be a big leap. If it is a cheap buy, then it may be explored even more. We all know your airline is a great airline with great service and new routes. But your problem is your airline would be relatively cheap to buy, and that makes you vulnerable.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[igneousy2]

I agree with both of my HAL counterparts in principal, especially HAL's very true comment, but I'm just repeating what our own CEO has stated is the ultimate deciding factor.

Your management has to say that it will consider all offers and act in the best interest of the shareholders at all times...otherwise they get sued so I wouldn't use that as any indication of managements desire to remain indpendent or not.

 

[HAL]

But Hal, when you have a niche, you become dangerous. If your market cap is too expensive, like AK, then a purchase might be a big leap. If it is a cheap buy, then it may be explored even more. We all know your airline is a great airline with great service and new routes. But your problem is your airline would be relatively cheap to buy, and that makes you vulnerable.



Bye Bye---General Lee

As always, you're correct General. That's why I give it a 40/60 chance of being bought. All it would take is an airline with some cash on hand and a BOD with island fever. I hope not, but it could happen.

HAL

 

[johnsonrod]

Hey HAL,

You're "dangerous" like MAVERICK... Think of Iceman chomping his teeth after saying that...

 

[Full of LUV]

I am sure the State of Washington is pushing for DL's SEA to HND bid too. I hear our HND to LAX flight is doing well btw. (But the plane had to be right sized, from a whale to a 330)


Bye Bye---General Lee

The State of Washington doesn't have Innoeuye or Akaka as senators.

 

[General Lee]

The State of Washington doesn't have Innoeuye or Akaka as senators.

Yeah, but how about the senators in GA, NY, OH, MI, MN, CA, and UT? Get the picture? Just Jokin, right? Right?



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[HA25]

The State of Washington doesn't have Innoeuye or Akaka as senators.

both of whom are well into their late 80's it bares mention however.

 

[Full of LUV]

both of whom are well into their late 80's it bares mention however.

Oh I agree and Akaka is retiring and being replace this term already, but until the end of the year for him and till who knows for Inouye, you don't wield a bigger stick in the Senate than the state of Hawaii, if you don't believe it, just look at the amount of Fed dollars vs taxes that Hawaii gets every year to see that effect. Inouye even boasts about it in the paper, he will do whatever it takes (legislatively of course) to make sure Hawaii gets what it wants. That being said, not sure how much the Senators can effect the taking of a slot awarded to Delta to provide service to Haneda from Kona, vs Seattle. Guess we'll find out shortly.....

 

[General Lee]

Oh I agree and Akaka is retiring and being replace this term already, but until the end of the year for him and till who knows for Inouye, you don't wield a bigger stick in the Senate than the state of Hawaii, if you don't believe it, just look at the amount of Fed dollars vs taxes that Hawaii gets every year to see that effect. Inouye even boasts about it in the paper, he will do whatever it takes (legislatively of course) to make sure Hawaii gets what it wants. That being said, not sure how much the Senators can effect the taking of a slot awarded to Delta to provide service to Haneda from Kona, vs Seattle. Guess we'll find out shortly.....

I actually saw Inouye fly into HNL on DL, obviously a connection from DCA, which Hawaiian doesn't fly to. He and his body guards looked happy.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Dan Roman]

Just to be clear, I'm not referring to politics on the upcoming HND award. I really don't have a clue what effects that. I'm simply pointing out the fact that there would be very stiff opposition to any airline trying to merge with Hawaiian. While it's true DAL very well could make an offer for HA, and HA's BOD could even accept it. But that doesn't mean it would happen. I think the combination of strong anti merger sentiment from the employees, general public and all state and federal politicians would be enough to stop it.

 

[General Lee]

Just to be clear, I'm not referring to politics on the upcoming HND award. I really don't have a clue what effects that. I'm simply pointing out the fact that there would be very stiff opposition to any airline trying to merge with Hawaiian. While it's true DAL very well could make an offer for HA, and HA's BOD could even accept it. But that doesn't mean it would happen. I think the combination of strong anti merger sentiment from the employees, general public and all state and federal politicians would be enough to stop it.

I agree Dan. Hawaiian has a very distinct brand, and it advertises for your State as well. That would be a tough buy or merge. But, if it continues to infringe in Legacy growth or legacy profits, it may be looked at, especially for the current market cap, which makes it a target. You just never know. Maybe NOT getting the HND slot which is in contention might be a "good" thing for you guys? Just a guess.

As far as the public goes, they didn't seem to have a problem with Go! Hawaii CRJs putting the other famous Hawaiian airline, Aloha, out of pax business. They were an iconic brand too, and now they fly late night intra island cargo on old 732s and Saabs. People usually vote with their pocket books first.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Dan Roman]

Actually Aloha put Aloha out of business. Go was just in an opportunistic position to capitalize on it and frankly they failed miserably. It used to be AQ and HA split the inter -island market mostly in half. At one time AQ somewhat dominated with around 60%. Go has only gotten less than 10%. They even bought the other inter island carrier that started after AQ folded (I forget their name)who also had about a 10% market share. After Go bought them they should have kept their 10% plus the other airlines 10% to at least have had 20%. However, after buying the other carrier they still ended with less than 10%. Go has been a major failure and almost a nonentity over here. There is always about 10% of the market that just goes on anyone or can't get a seat when they want to go on HA. That's the 10% Go carries.

 

[General Lee]

Actually Aloha put Aloha out of business. Go was just in an opportunistic position to capitalize on it and frankly they failed miserably. It used to be AQ and HA split the inter -island market mostly in half. At one time AQ somewhat dominated with around 60%. Go has only gotten less than 10%. They even bought the other inter island carrier that started after AQ folded (I forget their name)who also had about a 10% market share. After Go bought them they should have kept their 10% plus the other airlines 10% to at least have had 20%. However, after buying the other carrier they still ended with less than 10%. Go has been a major failure and almost a nonentity over here. There is always about 10% of the market that just goes on anyone or can't get a seat when they want to go on HA. That's the 10% Go carries.

Dan,

I agree, but what I was saying is that not many seem to miss Aloha for some reason. It had a great brand also.

So, have you done any of those JFK trips yet? What do you think? Nice layover? Do you prefer those or the Japan/Australia/Phillipines stuff? What do you think of the A330? Miss the 767? Have a good one.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Dan Roman]

JFK is an awesome trip. We leave HNL AT 3pm and get to JFK at around 7am EST which is only 1am HNL time. So it's not hard to stay up. We stay near Times Sq and departure is 10 am on day three, which means a 3 pm arrival back home. Never fail to find something to do there. Last time I was there I saw a favorite music group of mine (The Screaming Orphans, they play both rock and Trad Celtic) at a very cool intimate little club in Soho. The crew came with me an they were stoked.
4 of those a month means an 84 hour line 18 days off. SYD will replace those when the weather gets cold. That's the same deal except it means a surf at Manly and the red eye is on the way home. I really can't say which trip I like best, but I'm leaning towards JFK because there is so much to do there. Although ask me again in March, we start Auckland and it's a 2 or 3 day layover.

See why I don't want Hawaiian bought by anyone!

A330 is awesome. I spent 10 years in the 767 and loved it, but I am thoroughly enjoying the Airbus. Most who fly it seem to agree. If you hear someone bad mouth an Airbus, ask them if they ever flew one. More often than not, you can guess what the answer is.

BTW, I will give you this. If HA does get bought DAL is really the only airline that makes a good fit. It would make a very strong hub connecting Asia, the Pacific and the U.S. market. The only other realistic players could be UAL who I don't think would have any interest, and USAir, who might but would lose out to DAL if that bidding started. The BOD would take DAL over USAir do to USAirs ongoing labor issues I'm certain. All hypothetical of course, you know we're I stand on the subject!